As we head toward Saturday, much of the value in the college football betting markets has dried up by this point. Ideally, we’d be getting our bets in early in the week to get closing line value, but that doesn’t mean there isn't any meat left on the bone.
Full-game sides and totals are very efficient later in the week, but there is no shame in finding value in other places, such as alternate lines or team totals. Here, I’ll go over my model’s biggest remaining edges on the board, which happens to have a solid amount of PFF Greenline agreement this week. Use Greenline as your go-to tool for your college football betting, and remember to check out all of PFF’s betting content from a sharp group of analysts.
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Projection: FIU +1.8
We’ll start this off with one of the agreements between my projections and PFF Greenline, as both see value on the Golden Panthers on Friday night. Neither of these teams has been particularly impressive this season, but a big factor here will be how well Charlotte is able to defend FIU’s aggressive passing attack. Quarterback Max Bortenschlager leads the nation in average depth of target, which has led to top-10 rankings in yards per attempt and big-time throw percentage. The run game hasn’t been much to write home about, so Charlotte’s back end will likely need to have a good performance to come out with a win.
To date, the 49ers rank 102nd in expected points added per pass and 116th in open target percentage. Bortenschlager should also have plenty of time to find targets down the field, considering Charlotte’s 116th-graded pass rush.
FIU’s run game has struggled at times, though, so this could be a good opportunity for a weak Charlotte front to get something going in that regard. It’s one of the worst run defenses in the entire country so far, ranking bottom five in grade, EPA per rush and rushing success rate.
Overall, Charlotte has more than its fair share of question marks, and the Golden Panthers may have value getting over a field goal at home.
Texas Longhorns (Team Total OVER 30) vs. Oklahoma Sooners
This year’s Red River game should be a good one, and Texas’ offense could keep it interesting to the end. The Longhorns rank second in the nation in successful drive rate and have an offense that grades out as the eighth-best nationally.