We’re getting to that time of the year where weather starts to have a bigger impact on college football totals. Going forward, it may be helpful to check the weather report on totals you’re looking to bet or on games where you think the line looks noticeably off.
For Week 6, it looks like we can expect some rain in parts of the Southeast and Midwest, as well as some wind in parts of the Southern Plains. With that in mind, here are my model’s biggest edges on college football over/unders entering Week 6. Before you go any further, make sure to check out PFF Greenline for the best value on the board before Saturday.
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Arkansas State Red Wolves vs. Coastal Carolina Chanticleers OVER 73
Despite a total that starts with a “7,” I’m still seeing value on the over at this number. Coastal Carolina’s offense has performed as one of the best in the country this season, and Arkansas State’s defense is completely on the other end of the spectrum. To date, the Chanticleers lead the nation in EPA per play and success rate from both a per-play and per-drive perspective. They have admittedly played a weak schedule, but this Arkansas State defense has given up point totals of 55, 52, 41, and 59 to its FBS opponents this year, which also shows in the team's poor rankings in multiple categories:
|EPA/Play||Drive Success Rate||Defensive Grade||Coverage Grade||Explosive Pass Rate||Run-Defense Grade|
|Arkansas State (Rank)||125||121||124||127||126||119|
You can knock Coastal for its schedule, but it won’t be getting any tougher this week. The Chanticleers have a major mismatch in the passing game against this secondary, starting with quarterback Grayson McCall and his 91.8 passing grade, which ranks second in the country. His very efficient 83.7% adjusted completion percentage also ranks second, and a 12.8 yards per attempt has him leading the nation by a comfortable margin.
McCall isn’t doing it alone, though. He has two incredible weapons in the passing game in tight end Isaiah Likely and receiver Jaivon Heiligh. Among players with at least 10 targets, Likely’s 92.3 receiving grade ranks second at the tight end position, and Heiligh’s 92.1 receiving grade leads the nation at receiver. Don’t expect this defense to have many answers for this duo.
Another factor that will help get this game into the 70s is Arkansas State’s pace. Its 16.3 possessions per game ranks second in the country, and its 84.3 plays per game slots into the same spot. The passing game has been aggressive as well, as Arkansas State’s 43 deep attempts rank ninth nationally. The passing game is the only semblance of a bright spot for this team, and it will need to hit some shots to hang around against this Coastal Carolina offense.
Missouri Tigers vs. North Texas Mean Green UNDER 67.5