We paid our due in the wild-card round, and we were paid back last week, with four games decided by a walk-off field goal, three underdogs winning outright and the Kansas City Chiefs winning in miraculous fashion to finish the slate.
PFF Greenline was down 0.16 units against closing numbers, putting us at +0.32 units for the 2021 NFL playoffs. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers, a team we really liked going into last week, lost despite a furious comeback from 27-3 down.
And so there were four.
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Best Bets Tool
With the kickoff to championship weekend creeping closer, it's time to go through the remaining teams, see if there is any value in the futures market and give out some best bets based on that.
All futures are from our friends at DraftKings Sportsbook. The projections come courtesy of PFF's simulation, which is powered by our power rankings tool.
The Favorite
We played 17 regular-season games and two playoff games just to get ourselves back to where we’ve been the last three years — with the Kansas City Chiefs hosting the AFC Championship Game.
In doing so, the Chiefs will become the first team in NFL history to host four consecutive AFC Championship Games. For head coach Andy Reid, it will mark the second time in his career that he’s coached in four straight conference championship games, cementing him as one of, if not the league’s best.
The market has always favored the Chiefs more than our simulations have had them, in large part due to how anomalous they’ve been in terms of offensive line continuity, which usually matters for everyone except seemingly Patrick Mahomes late in this season.
For those who think our odds are a little short, consider that they are currently similarly lined to beat the Rams or the 49ers in the Super Bowl as they were against the Bills Sunday, a game that was basically (or literally) a coin flip:
Projected Super Bowl LVI lines, courtesy @CaesarsSports
Rams vs Chiefs -1.5, 52
Rams vs Bengals +3.5, 51.5
49ers vs Chiefs -2.5, 50
49ers vs Bengals +1.5, 49@VSiNLive— Femi Abebefe (@FemiAbebefe) January 24, 2022
Kansas City Chiefs
- -335 to win the AFC (77% break-even percentage)
- +120 to win the Super Bowl (46% break-even percentage)
- PFF: 62% to win the AFC, 32% to win the Super Bowl
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