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2021-22 NFL Playoffs Betting Guide: Best spread, moneyline and futures bets

Foxboro, MA, USA; Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Tom Brady (12) yells to the crowd as he takes the field to face the New England Patriots at Gillette Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brian Fluharty-USA TODAY Sports

The 2021 NFL regular season has come to a close, leaving us with a playoff field of 14 teams. It also leaves us with newfound betting opportunities, so let's go through the odds from our friends at DraftKings Sportsbook and see if PFF's win totals simulation offers any value in the futures market.

This simulation is related to PFF's NFL Greenline tool, which is up over 20 units during the regular season against opening NFL lines and also up overall against closing lines. For the most part, our numbers are similar to the market, but the value is where they are different. Here, we go over four broad tiers of teams as we enter Super Wild Card Weekend.

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The Favorites

For the second straight year, the Packers and Chiefs are the favorites to come out of their respective conferences, as well as to win the Super Bowl. As such, there isn’t a ton of value in betting them, as favorites will generally be priced at a premium.

Best Bets

  • N/A

Green Bay Packers

  • +160 to win the NFC (38.5% breakeven)
  • +380 to win the Super Bowl (20.8% breakeven)
  • PFF: 36.3% to make the Super Bowl, 20.0% to win Super Bowl

Kansas City Chiefs

  • +175 to win the AFC (36.4%)
  • +450 to win the Super Bowl (18.2%)
  • PFF: 25.0% to win the AFC, 12.4% to win the Super Bowl

Contenders

Here is where there is some value to be had. For example, the Tennessee Titans — the No. 1 seed in the AFC — have a bigger advantage than the market is giving them credit for, especially with a week off for Julio Jones, A.J. Brown and Derrick Henry to get healthy.

Additionally, the market may be a bit down on Tom Brady, since he will go into the postseason this year without wide receivers Chris Godwin and Antonio Brown. We’re here to remind you that he went into Lambeau Field last January without Brown and then got by in the Super Bowl with three combined catches from Mike Evans and Godwin. For the second straight year, we like the Bucs.

Best Bets

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