- What version of Daniel Jones will come in 2026 and beyond?: After tearing his Achilles late in the year and ranking 17th among qualified quarterbacks in PFF passing grade, Jones' performance may not align with his next contract.
- How will teams view Nakobe Dean‘s injury history?: Dean has played under 500 snaps in three of his first four campaigns, which casts doubt about his contract projection.
- 2026 NFL Draft season is here: Try the best-in-class PFF Mock Draft Simulator and learn about 2026's top prospects while trading and drafting for your favorite NFL team.
Estimated Reading Time: 13 minutes
Every offseason, NFL teams attempt to assemble what they believe is the most prudent plan to address needs via free agency, trades and the draft. For many franchises, embedded in that strategy is the principle of rolling the dice on potentially volatile players, like former first-round picks who haven’t panned out or players with an inconsistent track record.
The onset of free agency is always littered with names receiving more lofty contract values than often expected, and 2026 could be no different — especially considering some top options are accompanied by doubt. Below are 10 names who organizations may need to be wary of before shelling out massive sums.
QB Daniel Jones
Jones’ first season with the Colts seemed to be an overwhelming success. Not only did Jones win starting status over Anthony Richardson, but he spearheaded the team’s blistering start. Indeed, with Jones at the helm, Indianapolis ranked first in EPA per play through Week 13 and compiled an 8-2 record.
Consequently, the Colts have made it a priority to retain Jones — even going so far as to deploy the transition tag on him worth $37.83 million while still working out a long-term deal. But the reality is that Jones’ supposedly fantastic play was still relatively pedestrian. Indeed, his 68.7 PFF passing grade in 2025 placed 17th out of 26 qualified quarterbacks, with his 3.9% turnover-worthy play rate the fourth-highest. While Jones was generally accurate, his 20.4% catchable inaccurate throw rate tied for sixth-worst among passers with 400 or more dropbacks.
What also matters for Indianapolis is Jones coming off a torn Achilles suffered in Week 14. The injury may not only jeopardize Jones’ availability early in the season, but also has a track record of diminishing performance under center in its immediate aftermath.
Given Jones’ career trajectory — never surpassing a 74.4 passing grade in a full campaign — with his recovery, the Colts must be leery if they ink Jones to a multi-year extension worth $30 million or more annually.
T Rasheed Walker
As a former seventh-round pick, Walker is an ideal story of player development by the Packers. The Penn State product seized the team’s left tackle job in 2023 and never looked back, boasting terrific performances in pass protection throughout his career. Indeed, over the last three years, Walker’s 76.8 PFF pass-blocking grade is 17th among qualified tackles.
Still only 26 and sporting a career 96.2 pass-blocking efficiency score, Walker feels like a sneaky free agent who could command over $20 million per season on his new contract. However, teams will have to grapple with both a diminished 2025 campaign and bad run-blocking.
In 2025, Walker’s pass-blocking grade fell from 80.1 to 69.3, and his 6.8% pressure rate allowed tied for 12th-worst among tackles with 400 or more pass-blocking snaps. Further, he surrendered five or more sacks for the second time in three seasons.
Likewise, Walker has been somewhat of a non-factor in the run game. His career PFF run-blocking grade sits at only a 52.8 mark, and has been sub-56.5 in every year since 2023. Also, Walker is in the 21st percentile in negatively-graded run-blocking plays in that window.
Being solid in pass protection is arguably the most important trait for a lineman, which tends to align with humongous contracts. But will Walker be worth his projected price tag?
QB Malik Willis
Any time that football’s best free-agent quarterback has played 314 snaps over the last two years, questions will innately follow.
Willis was masterful during two seasons in Green Bay as Jordan Love’s backup. In that time, Willis compiled an 85.8 overall PFF grade with 79.9 scores or better as both a passer and runner. The former third-round pick was especially revitalized under center, tossing five big-time throws with only one turnover-worthy play across 118 dropbacks in Matt LaFleur’s scheme.
However, Willis’ tenure in Tennessee can’t be eliminated from the picture, either. In his first two seasons as a pro, the former Liberty star underwhelmed with a 49.2 overall grade and a 39.0 passing mark, recording three turnover-worthy plays and big-time throws apiece on 91 dropbacks. Willis was rarely afforded the chance to be the starter beneath uninspiring names like Ryan Tannehill, Joshua Dobbs and Will Levis.
In a market where appealing quarterback options are few and far between, the 26-year-old Willis feels like a worthwhile gamble for teams seeking high-ceiling options under center. But any organization contemplating giving him upward of $30 million per season will have to reconcile which version of Willis it’ll get — and if his success in Green Bay can be extrapolated over a full year starting.
WR Wan’Dale Robinson
The Giants didn’t possess many bright spots during a dismal 2025 campaign, but Robinson was one. The fourth-year wideout broke out at the perfect time, accruing a career-best 1.87 yards per route run, an 82nd-percentile separation clip and just a 3.2% drop rate.
On the heels of his first 1,000-yard campaign, Robinson profiles as one of the stronger receivers on the free-agent market. In fact, it would be a surprise if the 25-year-old didn’t command at least $15 million or more per season.
Yet his career production doesn’t seem equivalent to that type of value. Robinson has never exceeded a 70.9 PFF receiving grade, finishing with 69.8 mark even in 2025, and his career 1.49 yards per route run is only slightly above average (56th percentile). Likewise, his career 6.7-yard average depth of target is in the 5th percentile since 2022.
Robinson’s pre-free-agent season isn’t quite on par with that of George Pickens’ or Alec Pierce’s. Combined with mediocre career production and a more limited usage profile given his size, teams will have to weigh whether or not Robinson is worth his expected cost.
LB Nakobe Dean
After four years of inconsistent and injury-marred play, Dean could be the biggest puzzle to sort out throughout the 2025 free-agent market.
On-field availability is the most overarching concern for the linebacker. Dean has appeared on only 1,571 career snaps, with over half coming during the Eagles’ championship campaign in 2024. Meanwhile, he’s been below 500 in each of his other three seasons.
When healthy, Dean has also been somewhat of an erratic player. He’s finished with at least a 77.4 overall PFF grade in a pair of seasons (2022 and 2024), yet has been below a 62.5 in the other two (2023 and 2025). Perhaps no area better reflects that than run defense, where Dean was elite in 2024 — producing an 82.5 PFF run-defense grade — but struggled mightily last year with a 42.4 mark.
Still only 25, the former third-round pick could net over $12 million per season on his next contract. But will his more consistent pass-rushing acumen be enough to justify that price tag considering his lengthy injury history and up-and-down performance?
CB Tariq Woolen
After winning the Lombardi Trophy with the Seahawks last year, Woolen is now set to hit the open market. The touted corner could be paid like an elite player, but his career to date has been a topsy-turvy one.
Woolen burst onto the scene as a fifth-round pick. In his first two career seasons, he earned a 79.0 PFF coverage grade with 20 pass breakups, tied for the sixth-most of any cornerback. Further, Woolen’s 76.3 passer rating when targeted tied for the fifth-lowest of corners with 1,000 or more coverage snaps.
However, his play from 2024 onward has been different. Since then, Woolen’s coverage grade has fallen to 65.2, and his passer rating has jumped to 89.2. Woolen has also seemingly been benched multiple times throughout his career, with the quick corner being floated as a regular trade candidate.
Woolen’s blend of size and speed is extraordinarily rare for the cornerback position, and he’s displayed plus coverage aptitude for multiple seasons. But will he revert to early-career form on his new contract or remain the more frustrating player of the last two years?
OL Alijah Vera-Tucker
When playing, there’s little doubt about Vera-Tucker’s effectiveness. Across his five-year career, Vera-Tucker has produced a 75.4 overall PFF grade, including finishing with at least a 71.7 in each of the last three seasons he’s played. The former first-round pick has been especially stout in the run game, posting an 80.2 career PFF run-blocking grade with a 16.7% impact block rate.
However, the elephant in the room with Vera-Tucker has been his health. He missed the entire 2025 campaign due to a torn triceps suffered in September, and has played under 450 snaps in two other seasons.
Still only 26, Vera-Tucker is an alluring free agent due to his positional versatility, having taken snaps at four different offensive line spots in the pros. Will a team be willing to give him a multi-year commitment near the top of the market knowing that he may miss a sizable chunk of time on that deal?
WR Rashid Shaheed
After being acquired by the Seahawks from the Saints at the 2025 trade deadline, Shaheed served as a sparkplug during Seattle’s Super Bowl run. He made his heyday particularly as a returner with an 84.9 kick-return grade and a 77.3 punt-return mark, collecting three touchdowns in the process. Likewise, Shaheed helped keep the team on schedule by securing 10 first downs across 12 contests.
While Shaheed’s deep-threat talent and hands (1.3% career drop rate) are among the best in the league, his down-to-down production as a receiver hasn’t been outstanding of late. For instance, his PFF receiving grade was just 62.0 during his time in Seattle, and that figure sits at a 71.0 since his rookie year in 2022. Additionally, his 78.1% open target rate is in the 48th percentile over the last three seasons.
Shaheed’s value as a reliable returner and home-run wideout is obvious. The fundamental question surrounding his free agency is whether his game-to-game receiving skill will live up to his next contract, which may top $13 million or more per year.
TE Isaiah Likely
A talented tight end project, Likely has displayed flashes of brilliance during his four-year career with the Ravens. That included a tremendous 2024 season in which he notched a 77.1 PFF receiving grade with 1.71 yards per route run and a 139.5 passer rating when targeted. His play was so premier that Baltimore considered extending him despite already fielding Mark Andrews.
Instead, the Ravens didn’t reach an agreement with Likely — and he turned in a disappointing 2025 campaign. During a season in which he made several untimely mistakes, Likely’s receiving grade fell to 57.0, and his yards per route run dipped to 1.29. Also, his yards after the catch per reception went from 6.1 to 4.5.
Still just 25, Likely will presumably be viewed as a developmental tight end with field-stretching speed and secure hands, having dropped only two passes since 2024. But will he round into a dominant tight end worth $14 million or more per year — and put 2025 behind him?
EDGE K’Lavon Chaisson
Chaisson may not have been an outright star during the Patriots’ road to Super Bowl 60, but he was a critical piece nonetheless. In his first year with New England, Chaisson collected a team-high 74 pressures, which also doubled as a personal watermark. The former Jaguar was especially masterful in the playoffs, generating 20 pressures, 10 hurries and three sacks across four games.
Chaisson’s overall body of work is impressive when viewing his volume stats, but his efficiency wanes when examining it on an every-snap basis. Indeed, he produced only a 61.9 PFF pass-rushing grade throughout the 2025 season, and his 11.5% pass-rush win rate was in the 53rd percentile. Perhaps more alarming is his 62.0 pass-rush grade on true pass sets, which sat in the 45th percentile at the position.
The 26-year-old Chaisson should have suitors, especially given his profile as a first-round pick and the Patriots’ team success. Yet any huge payday may not age well when looking under the hood at his underlying pass-rushing metrics.
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