Week 15 Fantasy Football: Players trending toward more targets

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Last year, I introduced a new framework for understanding wide receiver play, quarterback decision-making and offensive potential. This framework relies on an XGBOOST model and PFF’s impressive collection of route-level data. Using machine learning and this breadth of PFF data, we can create models with the goal of predicting where a target should go on a given play.

The resulting metrics, Share of Predicted Targets and Share of Predicted Air Yards, are both more stable than their “actual” counterparts.

Week 14 Recap

Jaxon Smith-Njigba: 10 targets, 33.33% target share
Chris Olave: 5 targets, 25.00% target share
Romeo Doubs: 2 targets, 9.52% target share
Deebo Samuel: 6 targets, 30.00% target share

Potential Breakouts: Week 15

These are players who were open far more often than they were targeted in Week 14. In general, players who show up on this list see an uptick in targets per route run and target share relative to both themselves and all players with similar target shares.

In Week 14, we saw three players who are clear WR1s on their respective teams, and all three exceeded a 25% target share. In Week 15, we have another group of three WR1s on their respective squads.

This week, Wan’Dale Robinson, Jerry Jeudy and Tetairoa McMillan all find themselves playing defenses that have allowed a top-10 rate of plays with an open target. This model, by definition, is about predicting players who are open more often than they are targeted. If any of their passing offenses accumulate volume, they could be in play for an overall WR1 finish.

Rookie Analysis: Predicted Targets per Route Run

As we approach the end of the season, I wanted to take a look at how the rookie class is performing in the context of the predicted target model and PFF grades.

*Note: “Last 4W” stats are calculated based on the last four weeks the player played, rather than Weeks 10 to 14.*

Emeka Egbuka leads the rookie class with both the best season-long predicted targets per route run (PTPRR) and the best last four weeks of PTPRR. His box score has certainly not indicated a successful last month of the season, but he is seventh in the NFL in targets and first in uncatchable targets.

The biggest cause for concern with Egbuka is his incredibly subpar PFF grade. Per Premium Stats, over the last month, Egbuka has scored a 53.0 PFF grade, ranking 76th out of 83 qualifying receivers. Normally, toward the end of a player’s rookie season, we are hoping to see an ascension as the game slows down for them — but Egbuka has seen the exact opposite, paired with an NFL-leading number of “inaccurate” targets.

Luther Burden III and Jayden Higgins are on the opposite trajectory as Egbuka. Both are seeing improved PTPRR and PFF grades over the last month of the season. Burden (73.1 PFF grade, rank 26) and Higgins (73.4 PFF grade, rank 23) both rank in the top 31% of all receivers in the last month. The two second-round picks are locked in with young, ascending quarterbacks, and both have very bright futures.

Lastly, Tre Harris and Jack Bech have seen a fairly large increase in PTPRR over the last month of the campaign, which is typical for what we would expect of rookie wide receivers. In a much smaller sample size, looking at players with at least five targets, Harris has earned a 75.5 PFF grade (ranking 18th of 101) over the last month, while Bech has a more modest 61.8 PFF grade (ranking 53rd of 101).Harris is absolutely the archetype of a player (6-foot-3, 210 pounds, Ole Miss) who could follow an A.J. Brown or D.K. Metcalf career path.

Week 15 “Coach, I Was Open” Review

TE Anthony Firkser, Detroit Lions

The Dallas Cowboys’ coverage has been susceptible this season. Per PFF Premium Stats, they currently rank as the second-worst team PFF coverage grade.

In their Week 14 matchup against the Detroit Lions with 40 seconds to go in the first half, the Cowboys surrendered an 18-yard catch-and-run to Jahmyr Gibbs.

Things could have gotten much worse for the Cowboys here, as Anthony Firkser split the Cover-2 safeties and was running down the middle of the field wide open for what could have been a touchdown.

Plays like this are why metrics like predicted EPA, potential EPA allowed and PFF grades are all important considerations. The predicted EPA model notes this as the highest predicted EPA play of the week where the receiver was not targeted (2.33 predicted EPA).

WR Luther Burden III, Chicago Bears

Luther Burden III ran a season-high 27 routes and posted his highest PFF grade of the season at 78.3 (min. 20 routes), ranking as the WR9 in Week 14 for players with at least 20 routes. His box score could have been even better, as he was wide open for what may have been a touchdown.

On this play, Burden won his route and even garnered a +1 play-level PFF grade. Receiving a +1 is a big deal: Out of the 16,422 receiving snaps in 2025, only 5.6% notched a +1 or better.

Caleb Williams began this play looking at Burden, but the moment he pivoted toward his checkdown, Kyle Monangai, is when Burden broke free. This missed play was not Williams' fault, as he was getting the ball out before pressure arrived. But, this is a moment that the Bears should see in film review and hopefully get Burden even more involved in the offense.