When the Minnesota Vikings travel to Atlanta, millions of eyes will be glued in anticipation. Not because of the content at hand, but because their fantasy seasons could depend on whether Adrian Peterson plays. That’s been the biggest talking point this week, with a Falcons victory guaranteed by a media who are playing the percentages.
You can’t blame them a great deal given everything stacks up in the Falcons' favor. They’re at home, have a healthy habit of not losing to teams with winning records, and have assembled a more talented group of players. A trio of reasons for triumph if ever there was one, right?
Possibly. It may be hard to look past the Falcons, but there are plenty of reasons to think the Vikings, fresh off rallying against a good Raiders team, could make life difficult for the Vikings. Let’s take a look at them now.
Making Matty Ice feel the heat
If there’s an area Matt Ryan has struggled this year compared to last, it’s when he’s pressured (-1.0). Specifically when you can generate it from a four man rush (he excels when facing the blitz with with a +18.5 grade). So the Vikings are going to need to use their front four to get to Ryan and make his life uncomfortable. That shouldn’t be a problem right, not with Jared Allen coming off the edge and Kevin Williams up the middle? Well it could be, as since the Falcons benched Garrett Reynolds and were forced into replacing Sam Baker with Will Svitek they’ve made things a lot easier for Ryan in terms of giving up pressure. Svitek has been a pleasant surprise in particular. Sure he’s not got the greatest upside in the world and the Falcons are giving up help, but in working with his limitations the former Standford man has given up just four hits and eight hurries in 174 pass blocks (a pressure every 14.5 snaps in protection) compared to Sam Baker who gave up four sacks, seven hits and 17 pressures in 257 pass blocks (a pressure for every 9.2 snaps in protection). Considering Svitek has gone up against Kyle Vanden Bosch, Dwight Freeney and Will Smith, who’s to say he can’t carry on from the good work Jared Veldheer did last week, in a slowing down the record setting pace of Allen’s season.
Can Ponder handle the zone blitz?
From spending a lot of time looking at the way the Falcons use their defenders, you pick up certain things. One of the plays the Falcons love to use in a variety of different ways is the zone blitz, having already dropped a defensive lineman into coverage 81 times this year (that works out to a dropping a D-lineman into coverage once every five snaps). It’s something the Falcons love to do and so Christian Ponder can expect a lot of blitzing that sends linebackers and defensive backs coming at him. The problem for him is he has struggled when blitzed so far. His -2.0 grade indicates that his completion percentage drops to 38.4% when blitzed, while he has thrown just two touchdowns and taken 10 out of 14 of his sacks in these situations. While he was able to turn pressure into yardage with his feet against the Raiders, the zone scheme of the Falcons is likely to make that a lot harder and there’s going to come a time when Ponder has to beat the Falcons' blitz to sustain a drive. A silver lining could be how susceptible the Falcons are to giving up plays when they blitz, with Jake Locker taking full advantage last week to pick up two touchdowns when Atlanta sent extra men after him. It will be one to watch, and one that could decide how competitive this game is.
Who makes the bigger impression?
Though they’ll be on opposing sides of the field, who has the better day out of Chad Greenway and Sean Weatherspoon could go a long way to deciding which defense has the better outing. Greenway has received plenty of criticism for his lack of splash plays this year, when his real issues have been dropping into coverage. The Falcons, adept at getting Tony Gonzalez into areas he can exploit, may be looking to add to the 44 receptions and four touchdowns Greenway has already given up. They’d be wise to do so, considering running at him – despite missing 10 tackles – isn’t necessarily the best thing in the world with the linebacker ranked sixth in our run defense rankings for all 4-3 OLBs. He leads the position in tackles and while the loss of Pat Williams has seen more of them come down the field, he still represents a huge thorn in the Falcons' ability to control the clock with Michael Turner. As for Weatherspoon, he’s got a slightly higher grade in run defense than Greenway (+11.0 to +10.1) and has made more defensive stops on the year (41 to 39), while missing the same number of tackles. If Adrian Peterson can’t go, as looks likely, he’ll be a big part of the reason why Minnesota gets very little on the ground. Worse still, the athletic second-year man can also make plays rushing the passer (he has one more combined sack, hit and hurry compared to Greenway), and make plays in coverage where he’s already broken up five passes. Both men are instrumental to their defenses, and will be instrumental in stopping the opposing offenses.
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