If football was solely a game of momentum, Tennessee would have already won this game.
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The Titans produced some big plays and played some timely – if not great – defense in Cleveland on their way to a 31-13 victory that might not be enough to convince the world that the they're a legit threat this year, but certainly put them on track to make a statement in Pittsburgh. The Steelers, meanwhile, are having something of an identity crisis and haven’t really demonstrated whether they’re going to be good or just sink toward average.
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Fortunately, there are a multitude of determinants influencing an NFL game, so we’ll have to watch to the conclusion to know what will actually happen. Will the 3-1 Titans follow in their fellow AFC South contender Houston Texans’ footsteps and send the Steelers further into the middle range of NFL teams, or will the Steelers recover from a streaky first month and get back to playing consistent Pittsburgh Steeler football?
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1) Can anyone get pressure on Matt Hasselbeck?
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Matt Hasselbeck’s career resurgence—he’s currently ranked ninth in our PFF QB rating—can largely be attributed to the phenomenal pass protection he has received. In fact, the Titans offensive line has allowed only 14 total pressures on Hasselbeck in 230 drop-backs, good for a Pass Blocking Efficiency rating of 95.3, leading the league. If the Steelers are going to disrupt the rhythm Hasselbeck has created with his receivers, they’ll need to get to the veteran QB early and often. They’ll have to do so without ROLB James Harrison, who fractured his right orbital socket after a helmet-to-helmet hit from Duane Brown. Harrison had already racked up 12 total pressures and +6.4 pass rush grade before the injury, so Lamarr Woodley and now Lawrence Timmons, who will move outside to replace Harrison, will have to pick up some slack.
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2) Pittsburgh’s new look at LB
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With Harrison out and Jason Worilds hurt as well, the Steelers are counting on the Woodley-Foote-Farrior-Timmons look to be able to play the whole game and produce. The strength of the Steelers' defense has long been its linebackers and, consequently, its excellent run defense. That run defense has been spotty at times this year, and the new linebacker arrangement will have to adjust quickly or risk Chris Johnson having a big game.
We’ll be paying particularly close attention to how Timmons sets the edge on running plays after being so used to playing inside. Larry Foote and James Farrior have a combined five missed tackles on the season and a -6.8 run defense grade between them. They’ll have to play better than that in Harrison’s absence if the linebackers are to remain a strength of this defense.
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3) Steelers offensive line vs. Titans defensive line
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While the linebackers have historically been Pittsburgh's defensive strength, the Titans have boasted some very good defensive lines over the past decade. This year is no different as they can get pressure from anywhere across the line. Can the Steelers' battered offensive line hold up? A huge question, especially for returning left tackle Max Starks, who appears headed for his first start of the season this week despite being signed only days ago.
Derrick Morgan has already produced 14 total pressures on the season and could pose a problem on the outside, but Pittsburgh must also contend with interior pass rushing threats such as Jason Jones (when he lines up at DT) and rookie Karl Klug, whose +4.8 overall grade is just shy of fellow rookie DT Jurell Casey’s +5.0. Meanwhile, every Steelers lineman in line to start this weekend has graded in the red overall so far, and the offensive line as a whole is ranked 27th in Pass Blocking Efficiency. A recipe for disaster? Perhaps, but once again, that’s why the games are played on the field and not simulated on a Madden videogame.
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