It’s fitting that this Week 17 matchup mixes together the two main stories of the Baltimore Ravens' season, their struggles on the road and their perfect record in the AFC North. You won’t have to tell people in Baltimore what’s on the line in this one, win and they’ll host a playoff game for the first time under John Harbaugh, lose and they’ll likely be headed to Denver or Oakland.
The Cincinnati Bengals don’t have the luxury of already being in the playoffs and competing for a division title this weekend, they need to win to avoid being dragged into a murky field of 9-7 teams for the last Wild Card spot. It’s also the final chance for them to show they can beat someone other than the Cleveland Browns in the division.
For me, this is the most intriguing game of the week bar the winner-takes-all NFC East showdown on Sunday night, with both fighting for different reasons. With that in mind, let’s take a look at the three matchups to focus on this week.
Baltimore’s Defensive Backs vs Cincinnati’s Wide Receivers
No Baltimore defender has impressed me more this year than cornerback Lardarius Webb (+14.1), who came into this season off the back of a solid, yet unspectacular, 2010 season. This season he has stepped up his game to the point that I don’t remember a better season from a Ravens CB. Through 14 starts he has yet to allow a touchdown reception while recording five interceptions and breaking up 10 passes. Opposite him the availability of Cary Williams (-4.4) is in question after he suffered a concussion in last week’s win in Cleveland. However, Jimmy Smith (+5.5) played well in his absence giving up just four catches for 32 yards. There is one thing about Smith that concerns me though. He has shown a vulnerability to giving up the big play with a reception of 22 yards or more allowed in three of his last six games. Just take a look back to Week 15 in San Diego where he was beaten by Malcolm Floyd for a 28-yard score on 2nd-and-10 with 10:47 left in the 3rd quarter for instance. Smith has shown the flashes that make you think he will have a bright future in the league but he can definitely be beaten deep right now.
It’s been well documented by us at PFF, and pretty much everywhere else, just how good a rookie season A.J. Green (+9.3 receiving) is having as a receiver. Yes, he has committed 10 penalties this year but he’s averaging 16.4 yards per catch and has reeled in seven touchdowns this year while effortlessly becoming the Bengals top receiver in his first season. Opposite Green, Jerome Simpson (-10.4) has shown flashes of the receiver he can be, but has largely disappointed me as 389 of his 671 yards this season have come in just three games. The good news for Bengals fans however, is that his best game of the year came against the Ravens where he reeled in eight catches for 152 yards. Cincinnati will need a big game from one or both of them on Sunday if they are to hand Baltimore their first divisional loss of the season.
Baltimore’s Offensive Line vs. Cincinnati’s Pass Rush
The strength of the Ravens offensive line, particularly when it comes to pass blocking, has been their interior. The big question this week is whether or not Marshal Yanda (+28.6) will play after picking up a rib injury during last week’s victory in Cleveland. Yanda deservedly was named to his first Pro Bowl after leading the way as our highest rated right guard throughout the season. Allowing just two sacks, one hit and six pressures this year, he’ll obviously be a big loss if he can’t go on Sunday. Taking his place would be Andre Gurode (-15.0) who has allowed more pressure–one sack, seven hits and nine pressures–in less than half of the pass blocking snaps of Yanda.
The Ravens interior’s main priority will surely be trying to find a way to slow down Geno Atkins (+29.3), our highest-rated defensive tackle. Absolutely dominant as a pass rusher this season, he has recorded nine sacks, 14 hits and 25 pressures and has at times just simply been unblockable. Back in Week 15 against St. Louis, he forced a fumble to end a Rams drive inside the red zone. On 3rd-and-1 with 3:15 left in the game, Atkins drove Jason Brown back 5 yards into the backfield before swatting the ball out of Rams quarterback Kellen Clemens’ hand. How much pressure Atkins can get on Joe Flacco will be key in the outcome of this week’s game.
Ray Rice
It’s no secret that the Ravens have more success when they are able to get the ball to Ray Rice (+14.3) early and often. Back in the teams’ first meeting in Week 11 the Ravens went to him 30 times – 20 rushes and 10 passes thrown to him in the passing game – to the tune of 147 total yards and two touchdowns with three missed tackles forced. Rice has recorded 1,848 yards from scrimmage and 13 total touchdowns this year, Baltimore will need more of the same if they are to get the win and guarantee a first round bye in the playoffs ahead of the Pittsburgh Steelers.
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