Despite the difference in conferences, the New England Patriots and New York Giants bring a rivalry type atmosphere into this week due to their two memorable games from 2007. The Patriots capped off their perfect 16-0 regular season with a win at the Meadowlands, but the Giants got the last laugh by winning Super Bowl XLII in the rematch a month later. Fast forward to 2011 and both teams are still near the top of the league with identical 5-2 records.
For the Giants, quarterback Eli Manning is coming off of his best game since we started grading in 2008, and he may be playing the best football of his career. The defense features a host of pass rushers who will be looking to disrupt the timing of Tom Brady’s passing attack. Unlike Manning, Brady is coming off his worst game of the season against the Pittsburgh Steelers, as he found no answer for their tight press coverage. The Patriots generally bounce back well from losses, and for the Giants, this will be a great test to see how good they really are after facing a relatively easy schedule early in the season.
Let’s take a look at the key storylines and matchups to watch.
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1) Eli Manning: Deep and the Intermediate Passing Game
The Giants love to throw the ball down the field and Eli Manning (+21.8) is third in the league in both attempts (44) and accuracy percentage (48%) on balls thrown 20 yards or more. He is also second in PFF quarterback rating at 98.24. It certainly helps to have a wide receiver like Hakeem Nicks (+8.4) who has six of Manning’s 14 downfield completions. Nicks is a game time decision this week, but whether he plays or not, look for the Giants to turn to the intermediate passing game, as it seems to be their best matchup this week.
Despite giving up passing yards at record levels, the Patriots’ pass defense has actually done a great job of limiting the big play in recent weeks. Since being torched for 10 deep passes in the first three weeks, opposing teams are only two for seven for 44 yards on deep throws over the last three games. As the secondary works to keep plays in front, the Patriots have given up staggering numbers on balls thrown to the intermediate range (10-19 yards). On the season, opposing QBs are 42 for 67 (63%) for 741 yards on such throws, good for 11 yards/attempt. Every linebacker for the Patriots has a negative grade in pass coverage with Gary Guyton (-6.7) and Rob Ninkovich (-4.7) the biggest culprits. Look for the Giants to feature the deep outs, ins, and comebacks that are staples of their offense.
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2) Wes Welker vs. Aaron Ross and Antrel Rolle
After setting the league on fire the first five games, Wes Welker has come back down to Earth. Defenses have started to scheme for him as they have crowded the middle of the field where he likes to operate and we’ve seen the New York Jets and Pittsburgh Steelers send their top CB his way in man coverage. Welker is still second in our signature stat Yards Per Route Run (YPRR) at 3.11 and despite a slow couple weeks, he remains one of the toughest covers in the league.
This week, Aaron Ross and Antrel Rolle will have the honor of trying to slow Welker down. Rolle was a fixture covering the slot for the first six games, but Ross got the nod last week, sliding over from RCB. Rolle played as more of a traditional safety, and probably for the better. His coverage rating of -6.7 doesn’t seem to match up with Welker’s shiftiness, but it hasn’t stopped Rolle from calling him out in the media this week. Ross may be better suited for the job as his +2.2 coverage rating attests. At six-feet tall, Ross is generally the type of matchup Welker dominates, but after the similarly sized Ike Taylor had success getting physical with Welker at the line of scrimmage last week, the Giants may employ a similar strategy and hope Ross can outmuscle him as well.
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3) Giants Interior Line vs. Patriots Defensive Tackles
Even though teams have passed at will on the Patriots, they are pretty well built to stop the run. It all starts with defensive tackle Vince Wilfork (+2.2) who has looked more like himself at the point of attack against the run in recent weeks. Even defensive tackle Albert Haynesworth (+5.4) has quietly pushed the pocket in limited opportunities this season. Still, New England needs more disruption in the passing game up front and having Wilfork rush the passer 49 times as he did on Sunday may not be the best course of action. He was credited with one measly quarterback disruption and it was a coverage sack.
This may be the week they apply some pressure as both Giants’ guards are struggling in pass protection. Left guard David Diehl is fifth worst in our signature stat PBE for guards at 93.7 while right guard Chris Snee is in the middle of the pack at 97.0. Snee is generally one of the better guards in the league, but he was not himself in his return from a concussion last week. David Baas had his worst game of the season as well, grading at -3.8. He was handled easily by the Miami Dolphins’ big defensive front, and it looks like a similar matchup this week with Wilfork and Haynesworth.
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