There are very few teams that are as hot as the Giants and 49ers right now. The Giants are coming off of three straight victories against AFC East teams including an encore victory over the New England Patriots. The 49ers on the other hand have mastered the art of winning close, scoring just enough points to come out on top.
This rivalry started back in the Joe Montana and Phil Simms days, was renewed when the 49ers scored 25 unanswered points in the playoffs to beat the Giants. The Giants have won the three matchups since then, but it’s been since 2002 that both teams were good. The winner of this game will have the inside track towards a first round bye. The football Gods have smiled on us with some great matchups this week, and this is one of them.
Eli Manning vs. 49ers Coverage
For the majority of the past few years, Eli Manning (+22.4) has fit nicely in the good but not great category for quarterbacks. This year however you could make a solid argument for Manning right outside of the trio of Rodgers, Brady and Brees. He has averaged at least 8 yards per attempt whether he is under pressure, not under pressure, blitzed or not blitzed. He has a full arsenal of weapons, staring Hakeem Nicks (+5.5) who has had at least 65 yards in each of the last four games he’s played in, however he has an injured hamstring and might miss this game. In recent weeks Victor Cruz (+2.1) has stepped up with 13 catches for 190 yards over the last two games, while TE Jake Ballard (+4.1) has been good for at least 55 yards in each of the past four games.
While the Giants are loaded with receivers, the 49ers have a number of great pass defenders. In the middle of the defense they have Patrick Willis (+19.4) who has allowed just 8.6 yards per catch which is the lowest for MLBs who have been thrown at 25 times or more. At CB Carlos Rogers (+11.9) has only allowed 54.5% of balls throw his way to be caught and when they are caught it’s only for 10.8 yards. Their nickel CB Chris Culliver (+6.2) has yet to allow more than 33 yards in a game despite playing over half the game during the past three weeks. The only team the 49ers have faced with the same receiver depth is the Cowboys, which is the only team the 49ers lost to, but either way it will be a great matchup.
David Diehl vs. Justin Smith
While the Giants offensive line has been less than ideal, the weakest link has yet again been LG David Diehl (-10.1). His biggest problem is in pass protection where he has a Pass Blocking Efficiency is 93.8 which is fourth lowest for guards, and his five sacks allowed is tied for the most at the position. He will have his hand full in this one, as Justin Smith (+25.7) always plays on the right side of the field, which means he will be lined up against Diehl during a large portion of the game. He has had at least three pressures in each of the past three games. Against teams with weaker offensive lines like the Seahawks and Lions, he has taken over the game with 19 combined pressures in those two games. Like those two games, Smith should be able to dominate Diehl and give Manning a lot of problems.
49ers pass blocking vs. Giants pass rush
The 49ers have clearly been winning with their strengths on defense, as they don't have much offensive fire power. Their biggest weakness is their offensive line, where LG Mike Iupati (+2.6 pass block) is the only linemen with a positive pass block rating. This is a problem for Alex Smith (+21.8) who has an Accuracy Percentage of 81.4% when he’s not under pressure which is amongst the best in the league, but just a 60% Accuracy Percentage when under pressure, which is just average. This is not good for the 49ers, as both Justin Tuck (-0.7) and Osi Umenyiora (+5.3) are both healthy for just the third game this season. They join second year player Jason Pierre-Paul (+8.3) who has a combined 14 sacks and hits on the year as well as Linval Joseph (+5.1) who has the sixth highest pass rush rating of all defensive tackles. The 49ers have been scoring just enough points to win, but it will be hard to score points with these four players rushing the passer.
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