Both of these teams had their lows of the season last week. The Tennessee Titans had a chance to take control of the division over Houston, but instead lost 41-7 at home, which now puts them a game behind in the tie breaker. As for the Indianapolis Colts, they are coming off of a 62-7 beatdown to New Orleans. If that score-line isn’t bad enough, it was on Sunday Night Football for everyone to see; not that anyone kept the game on until the very end.
Things can only go up from here right? There are 11 other teams that have won half of their games or more in the AFC, so Tennessee needs a win to stay in the playoff race. On the other hand, the Colts are just looking for their first win; or to continue to lose so that they can beat Miami in the battle that many fans are calling the “Suck for Luck.” One thing is for sure-Tennessee fans will be happy not to see Peyton Manning play for Indianapolis for the first time since the team became the Titans.
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1) Painter Without Pressure
When Curtis Painter (-1.6) has been without pressure, he hasn’t looked that bad this year. He’s completed 59 passes on 98 throws for 789 yards, five touchdowns and one interception. It’s when he’s under pressure that the problems begin, where he has been sacked more often (seven) than he’s had completions (six). The offensive line isn’t to blame for this, as they have been very average when it comes to pass protection. Right guard Mike Pollak (+1.4) has only allowed four combined pressure while the reliable center Jeff Saturday (+3.9) has allowed just six.
Luckily for the Colts, Tennessee’s pass rush is the worst in the AFC. Last year, they had a strong pass rush from the trio of Jason Babin, Jason Jones (-6.6) and Dave Ball (-6.9). Babin left for Philadelphia, while Ball and Jones haven’t been nearly as effective as they were last year. Last year Jones had pressure on 9.1% of pass plays, and this year it’s down to 5.8%. Similarly Ball went from 10.2% to 6.2%. Since there is no one to consistently getting to the quarterback, we should see Painter play the best football he can.
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2) The Return of Hasselbeck
When you look at the Titans and Colts this year, you don’t think of a high scoring battle, but that’s what this game might come to. Matt Hasselbeck (+13.2) was looking like one of the better quarterbacks in the league in September, but is coming off of two games where he had just 4.6 yards per attempt, three interceptions and four sacks. In both games, they needed to come from behind and the opponent knew they were passing most of the time. In this game however, they shouldn’t fall behind early and instead of facing an average coverage team, they will be playing the Colts.
All nine defensive backs to play 50 or more snaps have negative coverage ratings. Over the past four weeks, they have allowed 75% of throws to be caught for 1133 yards, 11 touchdowns and no interceptions. They have allowed at least 200 yards and a touchdown in all seven games, so Hasselbeck should be guaranteed at least that much. If Hasselbeck can’t have a big game here, than the division can safely be given to Houston.
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3) Can Anyone Run?
When you rank the teams in terms of run blocking, you’ll find both Tennessee and Indianapolis both in the bottom five with a combined -69.1 run block rating. Outside of Saturday, none of the Colts’ offensive linemen have positive ratings, and their two tight ends have the worst and third worst run blocking ratings in the league. In Tennessee, the center of the line has Davis Stewart (-8.1 run block) and Eugene Amano (-9.9 run block) where backs have 36 carries for 59 yards when running down the middle this year; less than 2 yards per carry. The Colts best runner is Joseph Addai (+3.7 run rating), but he has been hurting and it’s unclear what his role will be in this one at this point in the week. The Titans have seen Chris Johnson (-3.7 run rating) play drop off a cliff, where he’s had just 2.9 yards per carry, with just 1.9 coming after contact. Neither team has looked particularly well in stopping the run, but the defenses might be getting a break this time around.
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