When you’re this late into the season, there are three kind of games. There are the ones between two teams fighting for playoff seeding, the one between a future playoff team and a team playing for pride, and then there is the game between two teams who are out of the picture already.
This game is somewhere in between the second and the third, as the Cleveland Browns have no playoff shot, while the Cardinals need a miracle. The miracle has already started with wins over the Cowboys and 49ers. If they can handle two of the better teams in the NFC, then Cleveland who has lost six of their last seven should be no problem. Quarterback Colt McCoy could very well miss this game as well, which should make things even easier.
However there is reason to believe this matchup will be closer than appears. The Browns strengths match up well with the Cardinals strengths, and here are the three matchups to show why.
Larry Fitzgerald vs. Browns Cornerbacks
Life after Kurt Warner wasn’t that good to Larry Fitzgerald (+14.7), but this year has been better. While his catch rate is similar to last year at 54.4, his yards per catch is at 17.6 which is significantly higher than last year’s 12.6, and better than the Cardinals' Super Bowl season as well. He’s had nine players miss tackles on him and seven touchdowns–both better numbers than last year–and he hasn’t dropped a pass in the last five games.
On 78.3% of his pass routes, Fitzgerald lines up out wide, which would put him against Joe Haden (+7.2 coverage) or Sheldon Brown (-5.8 coverage). In most cases Haden stays on the left side of the field and Brown on the right, but on the rare occurrence, Haden will track one receiver; that could happen in this game. Haden has had a rough time in recent weeks, allowing 13 catches for 292 yards and a touchdown in the past four. Brown has allowed 14 catches for 178 yards and a touchdown over that same time. Both of these cornerbacks have shown they can play great football in the past, but they'll need to bring that “A” game to limit the Cardinals' big plays.
Cardinals Interior Pass Rush vs. Browns Offensive Line
If there are two men to be afraid of on the Cardinals defense, they're defensive ends Calais Campbell (+22.7 pass rush) and Darnell Dockett (+12.7 pass rush). Campbell has 43 overall pressures, while Dockett has 48, although Campbell has more sacks (eight to three). While the Cardinals have other great players on defense, they can be avoided by the Browns' passing game.
Throughout the game, it will be the responsibility of all five Browns offensive linemen to stop them on various plays. At offensive tackle the Browns shouldn’t have a problem, as left Joe Thomas (+15.5 pass block) is the leading tackle in Pass Blocking Efficiency at 97.2, and right tackle Tony Pashos (+10.8 pass block) isn’t far behind at 96.6. At center Alex Mack (+3.1 pass block) has a Pass Blocking Efficiency of 98.0, and both guards have ratings above 95. Historically, Seneca Wallace has been better when he’s not under pressure, with a pass rating of +3.2 from 2008-2010 when not under pressure and a pass rating of -6.4 when pressured. If the Browns can handle these two, then their offense has a chance of putting up more points than they have in recent weeks.
Beanie Wells vs. D’Qwell Jackson
Early on in the season, Beanie Wells (+1.6 rush) was running over everyone to the surprise and delight of those who owned him in fantasy football. However, in recent weeks he has hit a road block, with just 94 yards on 35 carries over the past two games, and no runs beyond 10 yards. With the cornerbacks the Browns have, Arizona should be running a lot early in the game. An early lead could come, so there may be opportunity for Wells to get carries throughout. The only question is how effective he will be. The Browns are fairly average across the field in terms of run defense, with the one exception being D’Qwell Jackson (+18.4 run defense). He has had at least six tackles in every game this season and seven stops over the last two games. Winning this focused battle will go a long way toward determining whether the Cardinals will control this game, or if Cleveland will keep it close.
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