I said in last week’s Ravens-Seahawks Three to Focus on that I wouldn’t be fooled by the Ravens again, coming off that impressive win in Pittsburgh they again fell apart on the road against a weaker opponent. The loss in Seattle has taken them from potential No. 1 seed in the conference to once again facing the prospect of a postseason roadtrip, if they make it there at all. That could, however, flip back with a win this weekend.
For the Bengals, last week’s loss in Pittsburgh hurt – literally. Not only did they lose the game but they also lost A.J. Green to injury and now face the prospect of going into Baltimore without their best weapons on both sides of the ball.
This is the most important game of the season for both teams, with the winner equalling Pittsburgh’s record through the first 10 games and the loser left to chase as we hit the home stretch. So, with that in mind let’s take a look at the three key areas to focus on in this AFC North battle with serious playoff implications.
Baltimore’s Offensive Line v Cincinnati’s Defensive Line
At the time I am writing this, it looks very much like Carlos Dunlap won’t be playing this Sunday for the Bengals. That’s a real shame as I was looking forward to seeing how an improving Michael Oher would fare whenever the two were matched-up together. Oher (+1.8) may have struggled at the start of the year but the last three games have been his first three-game stretch of positive grades since his rookie year. The penalties that plagued the start of his season are gone and the pressure he’s giving up has halved since Week 6. Elsewhere on the offensive line Marshal Yanda (+21.1) has established himself as one of the premier guards in the league, in fact, he leads our offensive guard grades by some distance. Yanda’s run blocking has always impressed us here at PFF, but it’s worth mentioning how good he has been as a pass blocker; giving up just one sack and three pressures. Those numbers are good enough for him to lead all guards in our Pass Blocking Efficiency Signature Stat, which measures pressure allowed on a per-snap basis. In Cincinnati it’s not just Dunlap impressing along the defensive line. I’m a big fan of Geno Atkins, particularly as a pass rusher where he has registered five sacks, six hits and 12 pressures. But this is a Bengals defensive line which has talent right through the rotation with Pat Sims the only player in the group with a negative overall grade. The Ravens will have to try and keep them away from Joe Flacco this Sunday if they aim to avoid another loss.
Cincinnati’s Receivers v Baltimore’s Corners
With A.J. Green likely out for the game, it falls on the shoulders of Jerome Simpson and Andre Caldwell to step up. Simpson (-9.1) has shown himself to be capable of the big play, he’s averaging 15.8 yards per catch. The problem is that just 46.4% of the passes thrown to him are caught and six that came his way have been dropped. Caldwell (-7.4) has a higher completion percentage on passes thrown to him with 59.2% but on those receptions he is averaging just 7.6 yards per catch. He too has struggled to hang onto the ball with more drops (four) than touchdowns (two). This week they go up against a pair of Ravens corners in Lardarius Webb and Cary Williams who are coming off their best game as a duo this past week. Williams (-5.9) has only allowed 50% of the passes thrown into his coverage to be caught and has broken up six passes, but he is giving up an average of 14.0 yards on each catch he does give up and has allowed four touchdowns. Opposite him, Webb (+10.0) is allowing a higher completion percentage at 57.4% but a lower yards per catch average (13.2). Most impressively, he has yet to give up a touchdown while breaking up seven passes and intercepting two more. Something to keep in mind is that the Ravens have publicly stated this week that they want to get first round pick Jimmy Smith onto the field more.
Joe Flacco v The Bengals Defense
Much has been made of Joe Flacco’s up-and-down season, but heading into this game I'm reminded of his struggles against the Bengals last year. They were able to put Flacco (+4.2) under pressure where he really struggled through both games, going just 5-of-17 for a mere 30 yards and two interceptions when under pressure. That won’t get it done on Sunday, but then I’m not sure we’ll really know which Joe Flacco will turn up until we see his first few throws. Will we get the Flacco who struggled heavily last week in Seattle, or the version who lit it up in Pittsburgh the week before?
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