It’s pretty incredible to think that five weeks into the new season, the Detroit Lions and San Francisco 49ers sit at a combined 9-1 and look to be playoff bound.
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It doesn’t take a genius see what difference a healthy Matt Stafford makes to a talented young Lions team, but what about San Francisco? Here we have a team without a winning record since 2002, defying all expectations by sitting atop the NFC West with an impressive 4-1 record, while leading the league in PFF’s overall defensive grading with a combined +60.6, yet despite this it appears that most critics still aren’t ready to give them respect that their record deserve.
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Here are three things to focus on for this captivating matchup.
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1) In the Trenches: 49ers Defensive Line vs. Lions Offensive Line
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The 49ers had the makings of what threatened to be a very good defence back in 2009 under Mike Singletary. Sadly for Singletary, it ended badly but under Jim Harbaugh and defensive coordinator Vic Fangio this defence seems to be a winner. Not only do the 49ers boast the best overall defensive grade in the league,they also rank number one in pass rush (combined +31.8) and number two in pass coverage (combined +11.1). Throw in a very respectable 12th ranking against the run (combined +17.7) and you are looking at one of the best overall defenses in the NFL.
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Led by defensive end Justin Smith, who ranks number one amongst all 3-4 defensive ends, his +12.6 pass rush grade is owed to his incredible ability to beat opposing linemen and get to the quarterback. Smith has 20 total quarterback pressures, which is second in the league only to Brian Robison of Minnesota. A great example of just how dominating Smith can be is clearly visible in the 49ers’ opening game against Seattle. Mid-way through the first quarter, Smith uses brute strength to drive Russell Okung into backfield before utilizing his athleticism through a spin move, leaving the left tackle watching as Smith sacked Tarvaris Jackson. Smith's talent coupled with Ray McDonald, who ranks third in same category (+7.6), it’s easy to see why San Francisco is doing so well rushing the quarterback. This is concerning for the Lions, whose left tackle Jeff Backus ranks 43rd amongst all tackles with a -5.2 pass block grade.
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2) Matt Stafford’s First Big Test
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Stafford’s numbers through the first five weeks are so impressive that even PFF’s own signature stats tell a tale of just how important he is to Detroit. Our very own accuracy formula (which accounts for drops, spiked balls and balls thrown away) calculates his percentage at 75.9% (4th in the league), compared to the traditional method, which only calculates it at 63.6%. Our “Under Pressure” statistic shows that while Stafford is pressured 25.6% of the time, only 12% of those pressures turn into sacks (ranked 5th) and his accuracy under pressure remains an impressive 64.5% (also ranked 5th). Moreover, our “Pocket Presence” statistic illustrates that zero sacks, hits or hurries are attributed directly to Stafford’s play.
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While that’s all very impressive, the Lions have yet to face a team that is particularly dangerous on defense. Of the teams they have faced so far, only the Cowboys (+16.8 grade in combined pass rush) and Vikings (+18.4) have offered much resistance, but the difference for the 49ers is that while they too boast a strong pass rush ability, they can also defend against the pass once the ball has left the quarterback’s hands. One big reason for that is Carlos Rogers, who is enjoying a remarkable debut season so far in San Francisco as he is leading the league in overall cornerback grading (+9.1) and pass coverage (+7.2).
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3) Alex Smith: Game Manager or Game Winner?
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Let’s not forget that there are two former first-overall draft picks playing in this game. Alex Smith sometimes seems like a cat with nine lives, as he is constantly underperforming and is always either benched or on the verge of being bench. However, this season seems to be very different. With a 7:1 touchdown to interception ratio, are we finally seeing Smith play to his potential – six years after being drafted?
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Don’t let the numbers fool you entirely, Smith isn’t the engine behind this offense, but he is doing his part in making sure it runs effectively. The fact that Smith has attempted just nine passes beyond 20 yards (ranking him 32nd among all quarterbacks) shows that he’s being kept on a tight leash. The bad news for Smith is that this Detroit team is playing very well against opposing signal callers as Detroit ranks first in pass coverage (+14.8 grade) and fifth in pass rush (+18.9 grade). The 49ers have been winning games by playing a balanced offense so far, but Smith will have his work cut out for him this weekend.
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Be sure to follow Mike on Twitter: @PFF_MikeCarter and follow our main Twitter feed : @ProFootbalFocus
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