In this 4 part article series, we’ll take a look at team needs for the 2011 season and what potential impact it may have on the fantasy season. Keep in mind the current CBA negotiations will play a large part in Free Agency, Draft Day trades, etc. For my purposes, I’ll talk about UFA players though as a ‘just in case’. Let’s get right into it!
Arizona Cardinals: The most glaring weaknesses on the Cardinals are QB and OLB. The Cardinals graded out at -57.8 for passing, which was worse than anyone, even the Panthers. Their pass rush was 6th worst in the league, and their 2 OLBs, Clark Haggans and Joey Porter, were PFFs worst 2 graded 3-4 OLBs at -28.7 and -16.7 respectively. Combined, the duo only had 10 sacks and a handful of QB hits. Both were also severe liabilities in run defense. The other piece to watch is Steve Breaston – if he leaves, Early Doucet and Andre Roberts could get more looks, and both have talent to get stuff done provided their QB is NFL-worthy. The biggest piece to watch for fantasy purposes is QB – if the Cards draft one who can play well as a rookie or bring in a decent stopgap, guys like Larry Fitzgerald and even the RBs (less box stacking) get upgrades, and it makes the aforementioned WRs draftable in deep leagues. If the Cards come back with the same awful QBs, however, stay away from Arizona players.
Atlanta Falcons: The Falcons have 3 guards set to undergo free agency, including their 2 starters. They could also use a WR opposite Roddy White, and will need to draft replacements at DE and TE at some point for their aging starters at those positions. If they draft a WR early, that WR is an obvious candidate to monitor for fantasy circles, although Roddy is going to be the man there for awhile. The OG situation is a more subtle one to take a look at – interior OL definitely isn’t as critical at the OT position, but if the Falcons neglect or get underperformers at the position, it could make life tougher on a guy like Michael Turner. As it is, the Falcons graded at a -12.2 in run blocking despite both their starting Guards being top 12 at their position, so if either leaves, beware.
Baltimore Ravens: The Ravens could use an OT for a Jared Gaither replacement (he’s not coming back), and could really use a WR for their aging vets. There are no glaring weaknesses on the team, but there are other positions that are either aging or could use an upgrade as well. A big piece to the Ravens’ ground game success is not only the OL getting upgrades, but LeRon McClain as well. When he was in, he was a great blocker (3rd best graded blocking FB in 2009), and I’m sure the Ravens would love to have him back. All in all, I suspect values on this team will remain fairly stable with the exception of some of the WRs, who would get a downgrade in the event of fresh talent being brought in. If the Ravens do upgrade their OL and retain Mcclain, Ray Rice is likely in for another top tier PPR year.
Buffalo Bills: I’d like to start off by saying that the Bills were a better team than their record indicates. They lost several extremely close games and were competitive in almost each one. With a good offseason, this team could become a serious spoiler in 2011 and even a contender in a few years. That said, they need serious OL upgrades. They graded as a -21.4 pass block and -50.4 run block, and until that’s fixed, their offense will always be hurting. Not a single Buffalo offensive lineman graded as a positive. They could use a longterm QB as well, and at pick 3, I wouldn’t be surprised at all if they reached for Cam Newton, since he can learn for a year while Ryan Fitzpatrick plays serviceable stopgap again. I’d be looking for a better year from Buffalo RBs, but next year should probably be another year to avoid Buffalo skill players by and large.
Carolina Panthers: If I say QB, is that too obvious? We’ll skip that one then. The Panthers could use an interior OL upgrade, as well as another weapon in the passing game, likely a TE. Consensus for the draft seems to say Nick Fairley or Marcell Dareus for the Panthers at 1 simply because Andrew Luck is back in school, but Jimmy Clausen simply isn’t an NFL-caliber QB at this point. DeAngelo Williams is leaving the team, meaning Jonathan Stewart and Mike Goodson get instant upgrades. If something happens with Steve Smith, the Panthers will need a WR upgrade as well, and in fact a mid or late round upside flier definitely wouldn’t hurt in that regard for them as well. Stewart and Goodson are draftable in leagues next year, but at this point, everything else depends on the QB situation.
Chicago Bears: Again, going with the obvious, the Bears need a MASSIVE offensive line upgrade. A grade of -94.7 for pass block and -61 is beyond awful, so we’ll start with that. Provided they upgrade their OL correctly, Jay Cutler and his skill players get bigtime upgrades. I also don’t feel like Johnny Knox is a true #1 WR, and the Bears could use an upgrade there as well. The defense is fairly solid in all areas, although some parts are aging, but I’d expect most of the focus this offseason to be on the offensive side, which will boost Bears’ values in 2011.
Cincinnati Bengals: The Carson Palmer and Chad Ochocinco stories are big ones to watch this offseason. If they both wind up leaving, the team is going to be completely different on offense, although a guy like Jerome Simpson or Andre Caldwell could be worth a flier regardless since Terrell Owens is all but gone. The team also needs more passrush help – Antwan Odom declined, and while some of their DEs have potential, they were extremely hit or miss during the season. Coverage in the safety spot was also a liability. All in all, several WRs for the Bengals could be draftable on upside alone, while the defensive unit could potentially get back to 2009-lite levels with proper upgrades. I wouldn’t expect that defensive upgrade just yet though. Cedric Benson is also an FA, but I’d expect him to come back since the offensive coordinator was replaced.
Cleveland Browns: The Browns are in an interesting situation – with the exception of WR and possibly OG, they can realistically go BPA in the draft, which usually isn’t the case with lower level teams. However, they have solid pieces in multiple categories, although DL upgrades would be nice as well. The only really bad rating the Browns had last year was run blocking, but that will improve with a likely interior OL upgrade, and Peyton Hillis will still be a quality RB. If they snag AJ Green, however, that offense will likely become much more dynamic. The Browns also have a ton of FAs on the defensive side, so that will dictate offseason procedure as well.
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