Take a casual glance at the numbers, pretty much any of them, and you’d be inclined to think Vick isn’t playing at the same level as he did in 2010.
His team, despite all the preseason hype, is 2-4 and seemingly playing a must-win game every week. He’s already thrown more regular season interceptions (eight) than he did last year (six) when he was in the running for league MVP.
Still, PFF founder Neil Hornsby included him on his recent Pro Bowl Cheat Sheet along with Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers in the NFC, and ahead of such quarterbacks as Eli Manning and Matthew Stafford.
Let’s have a look at why that might have been …
Vick: The Interceptions
So the Eagles signal caller has thrown just nine touchdowns to eight picks, hardly impressive. Looking closer at the interceptions tells a slightly different story, however:
Pick No. 1, vs ATL – Vick faces an unblocked rusher and makes an ill-advised decision to throw over the middle. The pass was actually dropped by Kelvin Hayden but Reid failed to challenge.
Pick No. 2, vs NYG – Vick buys time and throws to an open Steve Smith across the middle who drops the ball … into the arms of Aaron Ross.
Pick No. 3, vs SF – Vick throws deep where a battle for the ball between Desean Jackson and Carlos Rogers results in a win for the defense.
Pick No. 4, vs BUF – Vick fakes a wide receiver screen right then throws back on a RB screen, the ball is tipped in the air and intercepted by Reggie Corner.
Pick No. 5, vs BUF – The Bills get a great rush and hit Vick as he throws, the ball spirals into the air and is caught by George Wilson.
Pick No. 6, vs BUF – Vick has pressure from his blindside but forces a ball over the middle which is picked by Nick Barnett and returned for a touchdown.
Pick No. 7, vs BUF – Vick rolls left and throws a strike on third down to Avant who can’t catch it cleanly, the ball hits his receiver twice before it is intercepted by Barnett again.
Pick No. 8, vs WAS – Vick throws quickly over the middle against an all-out blitz, the pass is tipped high into the air and caught by OJ Atogwe.
Overall, on his eight interceptions, Vick has a -3.0 grade. He can be faulted for the interception against Atlanta, the poor throw against San Francisco, and the force over the middle against Buffalo, but much of the blame for the remaining interceptions has to go on his receivers for dropping passes and his offensive line for failing to protect him.
As is often the case with interceptions, they can be misleading. PFF's Nathan Jahnke wrote an article to help prove that. So while Vick has been unfortunate to suffer the eight interceptions this year, he was also fortunate to only have six in 2010. Go back to the Eagles-Vikings game from Week 16 of the 2010 season and Minnesota defenders dropped three easy picks. All of the lucky escapes occurred in the second quarter, the first by former Eagle Lito Sheppard with 10.18 to play, the second by Frank Walker with 7.28 to go and finally Jamarca Stanford had a chance at one at 2.20 before the half. In the same vein, of those six passes that did fall into the hands of opponents, he amassed a -5.0 grade and that number drops to -6.0 on seven picks if you include the playoff loss to Green Bay. It would not be unfair to say Vick was a tad overrated as a passer last year considering his receivers dropped just 25 passes and he was only forced to throw 15 balls away.
NFC Pro-Bowl: the Competition
While Aaron Rodgers and Drew Brees are clearly the frontrunners, a number of other quarterbacks have been performing well in the NFC. Giants signal-caller Eli Manning has put up impressive numbers and has his team atop the NFC East at 4-2. Avoiding the mistakes that were a key reason for the Giants’ failure to make the playoffs a year ago has been one of Manning’s most impressive achievements. He’s been graded negatively on a mere 15.1% of plays. His -2.5 grade on his five picks also shows that, when he has turned the ball over, the throws he’s made have not been as poor as they could have been. Ryan Kerrigan’s interception returned for a touchdown is a prime example.
The rejuvenated Detroit Lions have also had good play from a healthy Matt Stafford. His numbers are even better than Manning’s as he’s put up 16 touchdowns to just four interceptions. Going inside the numbers is less kind to the former No. 1 overall pick though, as he’s been graded negatively on 18.9% of plays and positively on just 26.6%. While those figures aren’t bad, they reflect more accurately the kind of season he’s having; solid but not spectacular.
Finally, rookie sensation Cam Netwon deserves a mention. He’s almost impossible to tackle in the open field and, while the styles are a little different, he already looks like the heir apparent to Vick’s rushing crown. Newton is not a finished product, however, and his passing still has a little ways to go. While he’s definitely made some amazing plays, his 21.6% of passes graded negatively is far too high.
The Case for Vick
A couple of statistics stand out when analyzing Vick. The first is simply how good he is at avoiding negative plays. While he’s been under pressure on 40.3% of his drop backs, he’s only been sacked an amazing 10.4% of the time. Unsurprisingly, his three NFC competitors don’t stack up. They’ve been sacked 20% of the time (Manning), 18.8% (Stafford) and 17.2% (Newton). This ability to avoid sacks has enabled Vick to make some truly astonishing plays. Take his touchdown with 4:17 left in the first quarter against San Francisco. Ahmad Brooks beats right tackle Todd Herremans to the inside. Vick feels the rush and spins to the outside. With Ray McDonald bearing down just a couple of steps behind, he was able to duck under a potential sack and find Clay Harbor wide open in the end zone.
The other thing that stands out with Vick is his elite intermediate and deep accuracy. Overall on passes aimed 10 yards downfield and beyond, he’s earned a +22.5 grade. Looking at the numbers, on 25 attempts beyond 20 yards, he has 12 completions with three drops at an accuracy rate of 60%. That mark leads the league and is better than both Brees and Rodgers. It’s this ability to make stick throws in Andy Reid’s vertical west coast offense that’s resulted in a grade of +1.0 or higher on 21 of 249 passes (8.4%). In contrast, Manning, who has an impressive six touchdowns to two interceptions on passes beyond 20 yards, has just 10 plays of +1.0 on 225 passes (4.4%) accumulating most of his yardage on simpler attempts. In general, Vick’s 16.9% of negative plays and 26.9% positives stack up well with his competitors.
Of the Eagles’ losses, Vick has had them driving for the game-wining or game-tying score in two of them. Against San Francsico, Jeremy Maclin fumbled when the Eagles were in field goal range. He had also driven the team into scoring range a further three times only to see Ronnie Brown make one of the dumbest plays ever and his rookie kicker miss two relatively short field goals. We have already seen how a second-half comeback against the Bills was only stymied by Jason Avant. It’s difficult to fault Vick for not managing to engineer fourth quarter victories such as Manning’s against Arizona and Stafford’s against Minnesota when he’s been let down in key situations by his teammates.
The Case against Vick
In the Eagles’ other two losses, the Eagles have been leading in the fourth quarter before Vick was forced out of the game with injury. His durability is certainly a concern as he often tries to keep plays alive rather than slide to protect himself. Obviously that makes it a double-edged sword. While Vick’s made numerous plays with his legs, he’s still yet to play a full 16-game season. Having said that, his injury in Atlanta came on a throw from the pocket where his facemask was smashed into tackle Todd Herremans. When forced to leave the Giants game with a hand injury, Vick was again in the backfield on a designed rollout when a deliberately unblocked Giant defender delivered a blow. Although he did take a hit when scrambling against the Redskins, it was only the savvy London Fletcher who made it seem like he had suffered a concussion that forced him to leave the game. So far this year, being forced to leave games hasn’t been the result of reckless play, although that might be more the result of luck than judgement.
As mentioned above, Vick excels at avoiding sacks when pressured, but when throwing under those conditions, his Accuracy Percentage falls behind the rest of the pack being considered here. He shares nearly identical numbers there with Stafford (56.7% to 56.9%), landing them in the middle of the pack for all passers, but he trails Newton (59.1%) and – by some distance – Manning whose 69.8% is an NFL best (and five percent better than both Rodgers and Brees).
A final problem of Vick’s is that he often holds the ball too loosely when scrambling. He fumbled twice against Atlanta with the second, forced by John Abraham, showing the most obvious lack of care. He was also stripped by Kenny Philips of the Giants. The Eagles are second-worst in turnover differential and Vick’s lack of ball security is a significant reason for it.
Vick: the Conclusion
So while Michael Vick may not have the best numbers this season, he’s playing better than ever. His improvement as a pocket passer since his time in Atlanta is simply astounding, even more so when you consider he spent two years in prison. While the Eagles are 2-4, it seems harsh to place any more than very little blame on the QB who currently ranks fourth overall in our ratings. So if you’re inclined to vote on the Pro Bowl this early, keep the Eagles’ signal caller in mind.
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