• Bet Rams-49ers o42.5: The total ticked up slightly from 42, but Niners gaudy defensive production aided by NFL's second-easiest schedule so far in 2022.
• Bet Rams WR Cooper Kupp o8.5 receptions: The NFL's leader in targetshare (35%), Kupp has at least nine catches in 13 of his past 20 games.
• New users who bet $10 or more at BetMGM will receive a free year’s subscription to PFF+ — a $79.99 value.
Estimated reading time: 4 mins
• Our prime-time previews pull all the key modeling numbers and simulated outcomes from PFF’s betting tools, including PFF NFL Greenline and the player props tool, which use top-down machine learning models backed by PFF’s exclusive data to derive value when compared to the betting market.
• The preseason spread flipped from Rams as slight road favorites to 49ers -1.5 on the lookahead: It tested -2.5 early this week before settling back at -1.5. The cash and tickets seem evenly split with no strong stance from public bettors or sharp money moving this number in either direction.
• PFF Greenline shows no value on the current spread, but had an early-week opportunity on the Rams moneyline before seeing that drop to +105: PFF’s play-by-play simulation does lean in the Rams direction, as the underlying betting market attraction to backing the 49ers isn’t baked into the numbers. With San Francisco still looking overrated by the betting market, and unstable metrics like Kyle Shanahan’s convincing record against Sean McVay, make this a clear spot to fade noise and side with the better team in this matchup, the Rams.
• The total ticked up slightly from 42 a half point to 42.5, but still doesn’t bake enough of an offensive expectation into this matchup: Both defenses have a top-five PFF opponent-adjusted grade. San Francisco’s been the top defensive unit from an EPA allowed per play perspective, and also boasts the best coverage grade in the NFL through three weeks. But a big part of their gaudy numbers is matchup specific, as the Niners have had the second-easiest strength of schedule to start the season and faced off against basement-dwelling offenses in the Chicago Bears, Seattle Seahawks and Denver Broncos. They could be world beaters, but I’m willing to bet against it for one more week.
Bet: Rams ML (+110 DraftKings), Over 42.5 (-110 BetMGM)
Bet: Cooper Kupp Over 8.5 Receptions (+115 BetMGM)
• Kupp's 35% targetshare paces the NFL: He ran a route on basically 100% of the Rams' dropbacks through three weeks and has been targeted on 31.6% of those routes. No other receiver comes close to touching that kind of usage, and it's the main reason he is the No. 1 player in fantasyland every single week: Kupp never leaves the field for a Rams’ offense that regularly showcases him.
• Kupp is 13-7 going over his reception prop in his past 20 games: San Francisco’s been outstanding in coverage to start the season, but that impressive start has been buoyed dramatically by the opponents faced. Kupp is the very best of the best, and one thing we've learned is that a high-usage receiver like Kupp is going to get his touches every single week in a manufactured way. The high reception prop numbers consistently come through when receivers hit a certain usage. In a big divisional spot, Kupp’s usage will only be magnified — and Monday night should be no different. So once again lock him at a plus price to go over 8.5 receptions in this hotly-contested NFC West matchup.
Bet: Cam Akers Under 12.5 Rush Attempts (-114 FanDuel)
• Akers has played 44.3% of the offensive snaps and taken almost 60% of the team’s rush-attempt share since barely playing in Week 1: Although their backfield fluctuates almost weekly, the Rams' preferred split seems to be Akers taking the majority of handoff touches, with Darrell Henderson mixed in to get the majority of passing down work.
• This should typically lead to an uptick in rushing for Akers in games that the Rams are leading, but that isn’t the direction the spread market is indicating on Monday night: Even if the Rams are leading, there seemingly aren't many scenarios where they are salting away a massive lead, and if they somehow have arrived at that point, it would be because of either a big EPA swing from a defensive or special teams touchdown or a couple of explosive pass plays.
• Akers to go under his rush attempts is a prop that makes too much sense to ignore: He'd need to hit the high end of his usage and get the perfect game script in order to do so. With both of those scenarios on the less likely end, Akers will have a hard time going over this rush attempt number.
DERIVATIVE BETS & SAME-GAME PARLAY
• If it isn’t broken, don’t fix it — and nothing has worked better than pounding Cooper Kupp's overs in primetime: He puts on a route running clinic every single week, and any time the market bakes in an expectation of a difficult matchup, it's even more worthwhile to target him. No player is as matchup-proof as Kupp, so getting a plus price on him to go over his reception prop, with his anytime TD odds among their lowest of the season makes this a spot to target. On top of those two legs, this game going over the total is heavily correlated with those two outcomes and boosts the odds enough to make it a profitable addition.
OGP Build (+420 BetMGM)
• Cooper Kupp Over 8.5 Receptions
• Cooper Kupp Anytime TD
• Over 42.5
· Ben went 4-1 in his Week 4 SNF preview, bringing his overall season record to 22-28 (-2.46 units).
· PFF’s newest tool is a play-by-play simulation that uses a bottoms-up prediction approach backed once again on PFF data and state-of-the-art machine learning models.