Projecting 2026 fantasy volume through neutral-situation pass rates

• True passing intent peaks in the desert: Under an aggressive offensive architecture, the Arizona Cardinals paced the entire NFL last season by operating at a league-high 67.10% pass rate in neutral-game situations.

• The Packers prime a massive volume concentration: Following a below-average 56.2% neutral pass rate and subsequent roster attrition that cleared out veteran targets, Green Bay projects a sharp upward correction to boost its remaining passing-game assets.

• Heavy defensive trends compress the flex pool: League-wide neutral pass rates hit a multi-year low of 57.44% over the last two seasons, systematically shifting baseline touches toward heavier personnel sets and run-balanced game plans.

Volume remains one of the strongest predictors of fantasy football production, and offensive coaching staffs play a major role in determining where that volume goes. Teams that lean heavily toward the pass create more opportunities for quarterbacks and wide receivers, while run-oriented offenses are more likely to produce valuable fantasy running backs.

One of the best ways to identify those tendencies is by examining neutral-situation playcalling. A game is considered neutral when the score is within 3 points, excluding both two-minute and four-minute situations. These snaps provide the clearest picture of a coaching staff's preferred run-pass balance without the influence of game script.

As the NFL has shifted slightly toward the run over the past three seasons, more running backs have gained access to fantasy-friendly workloads while the pool of flex-worthy wide receivers has shrunk. This article examines neutral-situation pass rates from recent seasons and projects how those tendencies could evolve in 2026.

Pass rates could continue to decline as offenses and defenses increasingly lean on heavier personnel packages, though the recent trend may also begin to level off.

Rams head coach Sean McVay countered the league's shift toward heavier defensive personnel groupings by leaning into 13 personnel while maintaining one of the NFL's most pass-heavy offenses. Expect that approach to continue in 2026.