Yes, I understand it’s far too early to legitimately assess how the MVP race for the 2019 season will shake out. It’s the offseason though here at PFF, and it’s not like we’re about to start watching baseball. Let’s take a look at the players.
Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs (+400)
With the future of Tyreek Hill in doubt, Mahomes is obviously a strong regression candidate. Even still, Mahomes could come back down to earth a good way and still be the MVP of the league. With all the video game numbers he put up, Mahomes still had the second-most passes dropped (32) of any quarterback in the league last year.
Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers (+800)
Rodgers' 2018 season was one of the more absurd at the position we’ve ever graded. When the ball left his hand towards a receiver, good things usually happened. The problem was simply getting to that point. Rodgers took 49 sacks (fifth-most in NFL) and threw the ball away a PFF record 59 times. That’s 108 of his 681 dropbacks (15.9%) that never took aim at a receiver. Compare that percentage to guys like Andrew Luck (4.1%) and Drew Brees (5.9%), and it’s like Rodgers was playing a different game altogether. Rodgers has to cut down on that figure in a big way in Matt LaFleur’s offense to get back to MVP form.
Tom Brady, New England Patriots (+1000)
Brady has four straight years of elite grades in the PFF system (90.0-plus), meaning every year he’s in the MVP conversation. At 42 years old this season though, will the golden arm finally start to unravel? All I know is, I wouldn’t want to be the one to bet against him.