The NFL preseason is billed as unimportant, and from a fan's perspective it's understandable. After all, the games don't count, the starters barely play two series, and the schemes are as vanilla as an ice-cream cone.
But they're not meaningless. Every training camp is an opportunity for the team to get better over the course of a few weeks of intense practices, team meetings and installations. It also provides a situation that's a coach's worst nightmare. For all the progress that happens over an offseason, a team can get a whole lot worse on any exhibition-game snap, any practice rep, any time a player steps on the field to go to work.
When the injury bug hits, there's nothing meaningless about it.
Every year the NFL preseason claims some big scalps. A look at five of the biggest players to go down so far this year, and at how their teams can withstand the losses.
Elvis Dumervil, OLB, Denver
Dumervil went down with a torn pectoral muscle and though he might be able to make it back for the end of the season, but unless Denver is challenging for the playoffs it's difficult to imagine we will see him before the 2011 season.
It's tough to overstate exactly how crucial to Denver's pass rush Dumervil was in 2009. He was responsible for 55 total pressures (17 sacks, 7 hits and 31 pressures) last season, and the closest player to him on that Denver D had just 28. What makes matters worse is that the player in question is no longer with the team (Vonnie Holliday notched 5 sacks, 7 hits and 16 QB pressures), leaving Robert Ayers as the next best with just 22 total pressures (no sacks, 5 hits and 17 pressures).
Ayers will now be expected to make a massive leap in his second season and become the go-to guy in terms of pass rush. The news isn't all bad though — Ayers recorded his stats on just 253 attempts rushing the passer as opposed to Dumervil's 419. That means that Dumervil was able to bring recorded pressure once every 7.2 pass rushing attempts, and Ayers once every 11.5 attempts.
That number for Ayers isn't terrible, but it's certainly not good either. And Ayers is their best option. The new imports to the D-line are all run-stuffing players first and foremost, and nobody else in the pass-rush rotation was able to top 20 combined pressures last season. On the other side from Ayers is Mario Haggan, who rarely rushed the passer (109 times in 652 snaps) and had 11 total pressures.
So, unless Ayers or Haggan can make a giant leap forward, replacing Dumervil isn't going to happen. Denver might have to change the way it does business in 2010, because without Dumervil they aren't the same team.
Willie Colon, Steelers, RT
Willie Colon might be the best player most casual fans have never heard of. In 2009 he was our top-ranked right tackle with a PFF grade of +25.1. The interesting number is that +23.1 of that was for his pass blocking. Nobody was sacked more than Ben Roethlisberger in '09 (he was dropped behind the line 50 times), but just 6 of those came from Colon. He allowed another 9 combined hits and pressures over the season. Colon allowed pressure less than once per regular-season game in 2009. Think about that for a second.
In steps Flozell Adams, the former Cowboys offensive tackle whom the Steelers brought in after losing Colon. Adams allowed only 2 more sacks than Colon last season on the left side of the line, but allowed another 41 combined hits and pressures. He earned a PFF grade of -1.6, but a massive -10.0 for his pass protection.
Between Big Ben's suspension and the transition from Colon to Adams (who scored a +10.8 PFF rating for his run blocking last year), the Steelers are likely to have a vastly different look on offense in 2010 than they did in '09. This year's Steelers might look a lot more like the ball-control offenses of years past than the high-octane passing attacks of recent seasons.
Dominique Foxworth, CB, Baltimore
Baltimore entered the 2010 preseason with two of its top three corners (Fabian Washington and Lardarius Webb) coming back from season-ending ACL injuries. Anyone who's seen a player suffer one of those will know that the player is rarely the same the next season, even after being pronounced 100 percent healthy. With Ed Reed‘s health also in question, Foxworth figured to be a key player in Baltimore's secondary. He was comfortably their best corner and also had the ability to play free safety if necessary.
Foxworth then went down with a torn ACL, ending his season before it had begun. He ranked as PFF's 12th-best corner in '09 overall with a PFF rating of 11.7, and third-best corner at playing the run, trailing Antoine Winfield and Charles Woodson.
Baltimore's top corner is now Washington (who had a -3.4 PFF rating for coverage last season before his injury), and the Ravens will look to Webb and Chris Carr to round out their top trio. Carr is a solid enough nickel corner, but will struggle if asked to do anything more. Behind those three, the depth is nonexistent, with Cary Williams next in line. Williams is facing a suspension heading into the season and only played 4 snaps in '09.
If Webb and Washington struggle coming off their ACL injuries, the loss of Foxworth could prove to be a massive blow to a secondary that already looked patchy in places.
Ty Warren, DE, New England
New England has been dealing with the focus of the Logan Mankins holdout and Wes Welker‘s remarkable recovery from injury, but it lost one of its most valuable servants for the season in Warren.
New England's D-line was already in a state of flux, but Warren going down forces them to start the season with a pair of new starters either side of Vince Wilfork.
Wilfork gets the plaudits in New England for plugging the running lanes, but Warren is every bit as good a run-defender as the big nose tackle, and it's against the run that his loss will be felt the most. Even in a bit of a down year in 2009, he was third among 3-4 DEs with a +10.2 rating vs. the run. Mike Wright likely becomes one of the starters at DE, and while Wright is a positive pass rusher he's graded negatively against the run (-2.6 in 2008 and -4.6 PFF rating in '09).
Gerard Warren and Damione Lewis are the two most likely candidates to start at the other DE spot, and both players have been a disaster against the run in the past two seasons. Neither has scored better than -6.8 PFF rating against the run in either 2008 or '09. Second-year man Ron Brace is also in the mix, but while he was in for only 55 snaps last season, it is impressive he managed to record a -2.3 PFF rating against the run in so few plays.
The loss of Warren is going to put a lot of pressure on Wilfork and the inside linebackers to pick up the slack, because none of the other DEs look like they has the ability to do so.
Ben Tate, RB, Houston
OK, so we're not big on talking about rookies, at least not until they've actually stepped on the field in anger. But Tate was expected by many to be leaned on heavily by the Texans to alleviate their woes in the running game.
We're here to tell you his loss might not be the body blow some believe it to be, and it's not because Steve Slaton is expected to be back healthy. Between Slaton's neck injuries and his fumbling history, he's become more of a complement in the Texans backfield than the feature he was once expected to become. Instead, the focus is on Arian Foster. An undrafted rookie in 2009, Foster played in the final four regular season games for Houston and started the Week 17 encounter with New England.
He ran the ball just 54 times in those games, but recorded a 4.8 yard average and scored three touchdowns. He also added another 93 yards receiving on 8 receptions.
Foster looked like the tough, decisive runner that the Texans have been searching for since Domanick Davis (pre-Domanick Williams) blew out his knee and was never the same player. Foster had PFF expecting him to win the starting job even with Tate healthy and in the mix.
Despair not, Houston fans, all is not lost in the Texans' running game.
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