As we enter training camp it's happy times all around as hope and optimism runs wild over realism. I mean this could be (insert your team's name) year, right? This is the year they improve. The year they beat their rivals. The year they make the playoffs. The year they win the Super Bowl.
Unfortunately things rarely plan out as hoped and with our objective eye having analyzed the 2009 season to a ridiculous detail, Khaled Elsayed presents Pro Football Focus' Pre-Camp Power Rankings.
Starting from the top …
1. New Orleans Saints
Not just at the top because they're the defending champions, they've also managed to get through the offseason relatively unscathed, with all of their top talent still on board. The losses of Scott Fujita and Charles Grant are more than offset by the additions of Clint Ingram and Alex Brown (Brown was a better run-defender than Grant and accounted for 17 more total pressures), while they were able to win without Jammal Brown so no harm in losing an overrated tackle there. With Drew Brees pulling the strings, they're the team to beat.
2. Indianapolis Colts
They may lack talent in a number of positions but for their team to work they need an elite, out-of-this-world quarterback and a fearsome pass rush. Check and check. It's a formula that has worked for so long for the Colts that we know that it gets them into the playoffs and to a Super Bowl (which this writer contends would have been very different if Dwight Freeney was completely healthy). Nothing has happened this offseason to suggest the Colts shouldn't be the team to beat in the AFC.
3. Minnesota Vikings
A lot of this is on the assumption that Brett Favre returns and plays somewhere near the level he managed in 2009. The Vikings were a very good team last year but could and should have been better but for some terrible run blocking from the O-line (ranking as our worst run-blocking offensive line). Now that certain members are fully healthy, perhaps they can give Adrian Peterson a bit of help, making an already potent offense all the more deadly. The defense is still about as good a front seven as a 4-3 can produce, though we're a little worried about the secondary. Time is running out for some of the Vikings players, so it's getting to a now-or-never stage.
4. Dallas Cowboys
They got that much-needed playoff win but it all went wrong against the Vikings in the playoffs and injuries to the offensive line were far too much to overcome. With Flozell Adams moving on, we're a lot more confident in Doug Free‘s ability to help improve on the 25th-ranked pass-protection unit, but some questions still remain about which back should be carrying the ball. Defensively it's not perfect, but it's pretty darn good with both outside linebackers causing no end of problems.
5. Baltimore Ravens
They will be looking back on their defeat to the Colts in the playoffs and wondering what could have been — as it is, the Ravens upgraded a weak wide receiver group significantly to round off an excellent offense. We're looking for a weak spot and not finding one. The main problem on defense is finding a guy to consistently generate pressure — Terrell Suggs got a big deal but for the past two years has shown himself to be more stout against the run than explosive going after the quarterback (just 31 total pressures). Could the pass defense prevent them bettering 2009?
6. New York Jets
The only thing that keeps them this low is the doubts over their quarterback. If Mark Sanchez takes a giant leap forward, then with the talent on their roster they could quite easily be the team to beat in the AFC. But that is a big if, considering just how much Sanchez struggled when the Jets line allowed pressure (40.2 percent completion, 7 interceptions and 24 of the 115 pressures turning into sacks). Everywhere else on the team is loaded with so much talent it almost doesn't seem fair. It will be interesting to see how their contract situation is handled — they have two of the best players at their position disgruntled (Nick Mangold and Darrelle Revis), which is never a good thing. Could that create disharmony in the team?
7. Green Bay Packers
With Aaron Rodgers being a guy you can count on and the defense never far away from making a play, the Packers are legitimate contenders heading into the 2010 season. Still, looking at the defense, they appear susceptible to the big play and giving up lots of points (they gave up 30 or more six times last season, losing every one of those games in the process) and that leaves their offense needing to play mistake-free football. Is Rodgers that type of quarterback? Does he have the talent around him that will allow him to be? Not so sure on that one.
8. New England Patriots
A year removed from injury and Tom Brady says he is moving around a lot better than this time last year. That's reassuring because the offense is going to need to be on fire to make up for a rather lackluster defense on paper. Tully Banta-Cain may have had a career year (43 total pressures), but is he really the guy the Pats want to be turning to when they need their defense to make a play? There's more potential than production right now on that side of the ball, and that's always a risky game to play.
9. Miami Dolphins
Could Chad Henne have landed in a better situation? Excellent offensive line, receivers and running backs — all he needs to do is not make mistakes, something he looked more than capable of in his first year as a starter. The concern is, outside of Cameron Wake (who is unlikely to be starting despite generating pressure on a ridiculous 24.63 percent of pass plays), where are the Dolphins going to generate pressure, especially in their base defense? In a division with powerful and explosive offenses, we're unsure how the Dolphins defense is going to be able to go toe-to-toe with the Jets and Pats.
10. San Diego Chargers
As long as Philip Rivers is throwing the ball they're in a good position, but with the suspension and potential holdout of Vincent Jackson combined with the restlessness of left tackle Marcus McNeill, the situation isn't perfect in San Diego. If the offense is missing two of its most important players, that makes it that extra bit harder to make up for a defense that is relying on its three star pass rushers making drastic improvements on their 2009 performance (their 81 combined total pressures were fewer than DeMarcus Ware on his own). This team may have missed its window.
11. Philadelphia Eagles
A lot will ride on Kevin Kolb and while he put up some big numbers, we weren't quite as sold on a guy who really struggled when pressure got to him. Still, this is his team now and development is a must as the Eagles offense didn't really reach the level expected of it. The defense still looks like a formidable outfit, though you have to question (especially given all the talent they have at linebacker) how the useless Ernie Sims has managed to bag himself a starting gig. Very much in Dallas' shadow this year — could it be a case of rebuilding?
12. Houston Texans
Matt Schaub really stepped it up in 2009, and with Owen Daniels for a full year coupled with the emergence (and hopefully more playing time) of Jacoby Jones, things could get even better. The worries are mainly on a defensive side of the ball, where their star linebacker will miss the opening four games and their interior defensive line looks below average to put it mildly. A poor man's Colts where it matters?
13. Atlanta Falcons
Matt Ryan needs to play more like the rookie phenomenon he was and less like the panicky sophomore he became (he still excelled when blitzed but was far more rattled when the pressure got through from four man rushes). If he can, there's no limit to what this offense can do. The 2009 defense stepped it up against the run, while the pass rush took too much criticism despite constantly bringing pressure. The real problem was the pass coverage, with the linebackers horribly out of place and cornerbacks overmatched. Are Sean Weatherspoon and Dunta Robinson (and his 8 defensive penalties) enough to fix this?
14. Cincinnati Bengals
It seemed the Bengals responded to the level of opposition they were facing at times — sweeping the AFC North but struggling in those games against Cleveland and losing to the Raiders. The offensive line has the talent but it's a gamble to replace Laveranues Coles with Antonio Bryant/Terrell Owens and hope for a more consistent end product. Can you really be sold on that defensive line generating pressure and stopping the run? The Bengals look equally capable of losing to anyone as they do of beating anyone.
15. Tennessee Titans
It's going to be hard for Chris Johnson to replicate (let alone better) a season in which his yardage after contact was more than the total rushing yards of all but the top 14 rushers. So the passing game is going to need to improve, and while we like the potential of Kenny Britt we have a lot less faith in Vince Young, the passer, than his winning record would indicate. Young can run, no doubt, but he has to do more throwing the ball if this team is to be competitive in the AFC South and make up for a defense that looks like a work in progress.
16. New York Giants
While Eli Manning looked better than he ever has, the running game was nowhere near as dominant as we've become accustomed to from the Giants, so that needs to step up to complement a blossoming passing game that features some exciting and productive talent. On defense, we're not sure if paying a liability in coverage like Antrel Rolle that much was a shrewd move. The Giants look a distant third in the NFC East right now, but they have the players on the line that can bring pressure.
17. Pittsburgh Steelers
Things don't seem to be going right for the Steelers. Suspension for Ben Roethlisberger. Trading away star receiver Santonio Holmes. Willie Colon out for the year. Throw in their breakthrough star of 2009, Lamarr Woodley (60 total quarterback pressures and excellent run defense), being disgruntled with his expiring contract and this has the makings of an ugly season compared to what Steelers fans expect. They still have the best group of linebackers in the league and a defense that should smother teams, but this year could be about damage limitation if the team falls too far behind before Big Ben returns.
18. San Francisco 49ers
No team may be more reliant on their rookies making an immediate impact than the 49ers, because if they can improve their run blocking, they're in pole position in the NFC West. On the defensive side of the ball the secondary will need to play better but they have the game's top inside linebacker in Patrick Willis (a league-leading 66 defensive stops), while on the line we're very interested to see if Justin Smith can get anywhere near the level of play he achieved in 2009. The 49ers don't look like a great team but then it would appear you wouldn't need to be to win the NFC West.
19. Denver Broncos
A polarizing team in the PFF office — the differing opinions seem to be on how much of an impact Jamal Williams could have after missing almost all of the 2009 season injured, but only a further year removed from being the most dominant nose tackle in all of football. For every bit the defense looks well-built, the offense looks like a very long-term, Tim Tebow-sized project. The line needs some work, the receivers are questionable and there are a lot of concerns at the quarterback position. This team's fate could ride on how good (and how quickly) new additions on D can come together.
20. Arizona Cardinals
They've improved in most areas but they've taken a huge hit losing Kurt Warner, who papered over a lot of cracks in the Cardinals' O-line. If they overcome this loss then there's not much difference between this team and last year's inconsistent squad save upgrades at safety and guard, a downgrade at inside linebacker and the introduction of a rookie nose tackle. If they can run it more and be successful doing that, there's no reason they can't better the 49ers with the help of the promising Beanie Wells (4.7 yard-per-carry average).
21. Carolina Panthers
Sometimes stats and wins can make you ignore mediocre and lackluster performances — step forward Matt Moore. He wasn't great at the end of the season and didn't really look like a starting-caliber NFL quarterback on a throw-per-throw basis, despite what some people will have you believe. But after watching Jake Delhomme implode, the Panthers' interpretation of a good quarterback may be somewhat skewed. The passing game runs through Steve Smith, so the offensive line will need to be better than last year to give Moore time to find him and open up holes for the excellent combination of Jonathan Stewart and DeAngelo Williams (who forced 71 missed tackles between them). The bigger worry remains the defense — just what has happened to it? It says a lot that they've gone from a line that featured Kris Jenkins and Julius Peppers to a line that rotates Ed Johnson, Tyler Brayton and Louis Leonard. How will they cope with the high-powered offenses in the NFC South?
22. Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jags' record last year was much better than their performance, where they flip-flopped between defensive schemes and got terrible pass protection from their offensive line. If that improves they'll be better, but the real key could be how their defensive line performs. Does rookie Tyson Alualu make an immediate impact? Is Aaron Kampman fit enough to be the pass-rushing menace they sorely lacked in 2009? It's doesn't speak well for the rest of the team, but outside of Maurice Jones-Drew on offense and Daryl Smith on defense we're struggling to find players who can make the kind of impact needed to help the Jaguars challenge in the AFC South.
23. Chicago Bears
Everyone seems to be focusing on the impact of Mike Martz in the Windy City — how it will affect Jay Cutler and what it means for Greg Olsen. This won't matter for much if the offensive line doesn't block better than last year, although there was a noticeable improvement when Chris Williams shifted over to the left side — shifted Orlando Pace off the field, that is. On the defensive side of the ball, Julius Peppers is going to need to show his contract was worth every penny and not be the boom-or-bust player he was in 2009, when nearly half of his 53 pressures came in four games. The return of Brian Urlacher may be just as important for allowing Lance Briggs to do what he does best after suffocating under the increased responsibilities in 2009. Far too many “ifs” about the Bears right now to be overly confident about them for 2010.
24. Detroit Lions
Quietly the Lions have had a very good offseason — upgrading their defensive and offensive lines while adding some playmakers on offense to ease the burden on Calvin Johnson. They have the receivers to cause coverage units fits (Nate Burleson is inconsistent but the kind of threat, if healthy, to keep safeties honest), so it will be interesting to see what Matthew Stafford can do. He was horrible at times as a rookie so we can see it taking time for that consistency to come out. On the defensive side of the ball you worry about Chris Houston, who regressed last year, being the No. 1 corner but this is a team definitely moving in the right direction after years in the doldrums.
25. Washington Redskins
No doubt Donovan McNabb is an upgrade, but unless Trent Williams plays like the player he was drafted to be from day one, you wonder how McNabb will deal with the protection issues bound to be raised from a line trying to gel together. Jammal Brown shifting to the right side is an unknown, but a move that potentially suits him better than the left side. Mike Shanahan has a lot to do in getting this offense to work, which makes the switch to the 3-4 all the more confusing. The Redskins front seven was pretty good last year and they've arguably put their two best players (Albert Haynesworth and Andre Carter) into positions that don't maximize their abilities. This looks like a recipe for disaster even if it gets more than the 39 total pressures that last season's scheme got out of Brian Orakpo.
26. Seattle Seahawks
Pete Carroll got a lot of credit for the moves he made but we're yet to be sold on them. We still look at the Seahawks and wonder where the pass rush will come from (Aaron Curry‘s rookie performance indicated he'd be an excellent choice for the elephant role in the new hybrid after he notched 18 total pressures on just 99 pass rushes, but it seems like that role will fall to Chris Clemons). The offense isn't much better with question marks at near enough every position — they're talking about starting Deion Branch…again…for heaven's sake. This is very much a transitional team, even in the weak NFC West.
27. Kansas City Chiefs
With the Chiefs doing nothing and out of the media spotlight it was largely ignored just how excellent Jamaal Charles was down the stretch last year, averaging 5.9 yards per carry. If he can keep that kind of form rolling into the 2010 season, the Chiefs may be able to do something on offense. The big worry though, is the defensive line and whether top-five picks Glenn Dorsey and Tyson Jackson can start delivering on their potential after slow starts to their careers (in the case of Jackson, slow would be a generous way of describing it after he finished the season with just 11 defensive stops and 8 total pressures). If there's a reason to be happy, they do have (after the Bengals) the best young cornerback duo in the league — though that loses some of its appeal when you can't stop the run and only one player brings consistent pass rush (the one-dimensional Tamba Hali).
28. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Bucs identified a problem with their defensive tackles and aggressively went about fixing it. Whether Gerald McCoy or Brian Price turn out to be the studs the Bucs hope they'll be is a question for the future, but for the now we're interested in what Stylez G. White can do with a full season ahead after finishing sixth in our Pass Rushing Productivity rankings. The defense will be defined by the development of their tackles, but the other pieces are in place. That's something that can't be said for the offense — which receivers are going to step up and will tackles Donald Penn and Jeremy Trueblood be as good as they were in 2008 or as bad as they were in 2009? Good teams score points and the Bucs don't have a defense good enough to make up for what looks like a low-scoring offense.
29. Oakland Raiders
A relatively quiet offseason in Oakland has seen a number of small (in comparison to recent years) moves that all add up to making them a more stable outfit. The defense in particular looks handy, with the addition of John Henderson being a nice move even if his best days are behind him. The concern on the defensive side of the ball is how pass-rushing specialists Kamerion Wimbley and Trevor Scott convert to outside linebacker roles in a 4-3 while the offense tries to gets its act together. Jason Campbell is at least used to terrible play on the line, so he'll be somewhat prepared for Mario Henderson (the man who gave up more pressure than any player in 2009). But we're not sold on the Raiders' offensive personnel he has to work with. They should grind out some results, but this team seems to have finally started a long rebuilding job.
30. Cleveland Browns
If the left tackle position was the most important in the game then the Browns, with the best left tackle in the game in Joe Thomas, would be a lot higher than this. The running game has potential and Jake Delhomme will be a better player for having Thomas protect his blindside (Thomas gave up a pressure every 32.73 plays, while Jordan Gross gave one up for every 12.82 plays), but there's a real lack of any talented skill position players on the offense. We're a lot more confident about the defense that seems to be coming together, with Matt Roth being an underrated player to watch from the outside linebacker spot. Still it says something about the Browns that their star player is special-teams ace Joshua Cribbs.
31. Buffalo Bills
The Bills had a horrible offensive line in 2009 and they'll have a horrible offensive line in 2010. Whichever quarterback is under center, he's going to face a lot of pressure, and the running backs are going to need to be at their most elusive to deal with what we can only imagine will be some poor blocking from 2009′s 30th-ranked offensive line. We're still scratching our heads that the Bills went for C.J. Spiller when running back was possibly the one position at which they were set. The switch to a 3-4 won't be without its problems if Marcus Stroud is as bad in 2010 as he was last season, and if Aaron Schobel retires it will be interesting to see how Aaron Maybin develops as a pass-rushing threat after his rookie year produced 5 total pressures from 130 attempts at rushing the passer. The Bills are a long way off their AFC East counterparts.
32. St Louis Rams
Last year the Rams were the Worst Show on Turf in struggling to one win, and it will be a while before they're anywhere near capable of challenging for the playoffs, let alone winning a Super Bowl. The obvious hope is that Sam Bradford galvanizes the franchise in a similar manner to Matt Ryan, but with a lack of options at wide receiver (the team was looking at Terrell Owens, which says it all) and a defense that has a good set of linebackers and nothing else, there's little to say the Rams won't be near the top of the draft once again in 2011. There's no greater rebuild project in the NFL at the moment.
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