PFF Bets of the Week: NFL Week 7

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Week 7 is here, and PFF’s analysts have locked in their favorite bets of the week, powered by the PFF Player Prop Tool.

The tool delivers real-time projections, matchup data, hit rates and the best available odds — all in one place. It’s the same level of insight trusted by all 32 NFL teams, now at your fingertips.

Here are our analysts' favorite bets for Week 7. These picks have gone 15-19-2 this year.

Trevor Sikkema (3-3)

QB Dillon Gabriel, Cleveland Browns: Under 2.5 rush attempts (-140 BetMGM)

Gabriel has yet to log more than two carries in either of his starts this season and averaged just over four per game during his time at Oregon, with rushing never a major part of his game. While kneel-downs can complicate this type of prop, I’ll side with Gabriel’s style and take the under, given his limited willingness to run.

Dalton Wasserman (4-2)

RB Bijan Robinson, Atlanta Falcons: Anytime TD (-170 Fanatics)

San Francisco ranks among the league’s best in key run defense metrics — including yards per carry allowed and explosive run rate  — thanks in large part to Fred Warner. With Warner now out for the season, the 49ers lose not only their top run defender but also the NFL’s second-highest graded linebacker in coverage. His absence opens the door for Bijan Robinson to make an impact from anywhere on the field, both as a runner and a receiver.

Ben Linsey (5-1)

WR Courtland Sutton, Denver Broncos: Over 4.5 receptions (+104 FanDuel)

Courtland Sutton was quiet in Denver’s ugly win against the Jets in London, recording just one catch, but he had posted at least five receptions in each of the three prior games. He draws a favorable matchup this week against a man-heavy Giants defense, where Paulson Adebo — currently ranked 92nd in PFF coverage grade — is the top outside corner. Sutton has earned a 29% target rate against man coverage in a limited sample this season.

Mason Cameron (0-5-1)

QB Bo Nix, Denver Broncos: Over 21.5 completions (+102 FanDuel)

The Broncos have shown trust in Bo Nix, keeping the ball in his hands even when playing with a lead. Nix is primed for a high-volume outing against a Giants defense that ranks 28th in receptions allowed, and he currently ranks eighth in pass attempts per game. His improved accuracy over the past three weeks, combined with Denver’s heavy screen usage (17.4%, second-highest) and emphasis on short passing, sets the stage for a strong completion total.

Max Chadwick (3-3)

RB Jahmyr Gibbs, Detroit Lions: Over 3.5 receptions (+130 BetMGM)

Last week’s play on Jahmyr Gibbs over 3.5 receptions didn’t hit, but we’re going right back to it. Gibbs still ranks fourth among all NFL running backs with 23 catches, and he now faces a Buccaneers defense that ranks second-worst in receiving yards allowed per pass play to backs. At +130, the value on this number is too good to pass up.

Gordon McGuinness (0-5-1)

QB Jayden Daniels, Washington Commanders: Over 227.5 passing yards (-111 DraftKings)

I’m going back to the well after missing the Daniels passing yards over by single digits last week. The Cowboys (47.7) and Commanders (42.1) rank fourth-lowest and lowest, respectively, in PFF coverage grade, setting the stage for a potential shootout. With both secondaries vulnerable, there’s strong upside for heavy passing volume on both sides.