PFF Bets of the Week: NFL Week 15

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Week 15 is here, and PFF’s analysts have locked in their favorite bets of the week, powered by the PFF Player Prop Tool.

The tool delivers real-time projections, matchup data, hit rates and the best available odds all in one place. It’s the same level of insight trusted by all 32 NFL teams, now at your fingertips.

Here are our analysts' favorite bets for the Week 15 Sunday slate. Their picks have gone 39-41-4 through 14 weeks.

Trevor Sikkema (8-6)

Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams: Under 0.5 rush yards (-235 BetMGM)

We’re going back to the Matthew Stafford rushing-yards well, a spot where playing the odds continues to make sense. Stafford has stayed under this number in seven of the past 10 weeks and hasn’t gone over since Week 7. With the Rams rolling, there’s an increased likelihood of late-game kneel-downs, but given that the 37-year-old quarterback rarely scrambles, the under remains the preferred play.

Dalton Wasserman (8-6)

WR Nico Collins, Houston Texans: Over 4.5 receptions (-154 Draftkings)

Nico Collins’ role has surged in recent weeks, as he’s seen the second-most targets of any wide receiver since Week 9. With the Cardinals posting the league’s third-worst coverage grade over the past five weeks, Houston should lean on Collins early and often as it looks to stabilize its passing offense while continuing to win games.

Ben Linsey (10-4)

Keenan Allen, Los Angeles Chargers: Over 3.5 receptions (+111 Draftkings)

Keenan Allen ran 30 routes last week against the Eagles — his highest total since Week 7 — as Los Angeles leaned less on heavy personnel with Tucker Fisk sidelined. That usage should carry over against Kansas City, especially with the Chargers entering as underdogs. Allen has cleared four receptions in nine of his last 10 games against comparable defenses based on PFF’s clustering data and caught seven passes against the Chiefs in Week 1.

Mason Cameron (4-9-1)

RB Chase Brown, Cincinnati Bengals: Over 3.5 receptions (+100 MGM)

With Tee Higgins back in the concussion protocol entering Week 15, the Bengals may need to lean more heavily on Chase Brown if Higgins is ruled out. That script mirrors their Week 13 matchup with Baltimore, when Brown hauled in seven receptions.

The Bengals back ranks fourth among running backs in targets per game this season and draws a favorable matchup against a Ravens defense that has allowed the fifth-most receptions to backs, including four or more catches to a running back in each of the past three games.

Max Chadwick (5-7-2)

RB Rhamondre Stevenson, New England Patriots: Under 10.5 rushing attempts (+100 FanDuel)

Stevenson has logged fewer than 10 carries in five of his last 10 games, and rookie TreVeyon Henderson has emerged as the Patriots’ primary ball-carrier, further capping Stevenson’s workload. Add in a potential shootout featuring Drake Maye and Josh Allen, and New England may have even fewer opportunities to lean on the run game.

Gordon McGuinness (4-9-1)

RB TreVeyon Henderson, New England Patriots: Over 10.5 rushing attempts (+102 FanDuel)

Henderson has clearly emerged as New England’s top ball-carrier, outperforming Rhamondre Stevenson by a wide margin in efficiency. He’s averaging 1.6 more yards per carry and owns a PFF rushing grade that’s 12.1 points higher, and he outplayed Stevenson last week despite seeing fewer carries. Given that gap in effectiveness, it would make sense for the Patriots to lean more heavily on Henderson in Week 15.