• Best Bet: Chargers QB Justin Herbert Under 12.5 interceptions, BetMGM
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Despite the 2022 offseason nearly being over, with many of the premiere betting opportunities (win totals, outrights) already pounded into place, the books can’t get everything right.
In this article I go through one bet I like for each AFC West team. Enjoy!
Kansas City Chiefs (+160 to win the division on BetMGM, season win total of 10.5)
Bet to Make: Clyde Edwards-Helaire over 699.5 rushing yards (-115) on betmgm
The Chiefs were the best team in the NFL at generating perfectly-blocked runs a season ago, roughly four percentage points better than the next-best team, and that was with five new starters from the previous season. Everyone returns in 2022, and it looks like veteran Ronald Jones is all but out of the picture, with rookie Isaih Pacheco taking some of the gadget plays, and Jerick McKinnon serving as a special teamer again. This opens the door (again) for the 32nd overall player selected in the 2022 draft.
Los Angeles Chargers (+250, 10)
Bet to Make: Justin Herbert under 13.5 interceptions (-115) on betmgm
Herbert threw 15 interceptions last year (tied for third in the NFL) despite having only 13 turnover-worthy plays (26th-most). If the Chargers are going to break free from their bad luck this season, it starts with not having an inordinate amount of non-interceptable passes (only about 33 percent of interceptions are not turnover-worthy) end up in the hands of the other team.
Denver Broncos (+260, 10)
Bet to Make: Javonte Williams over 899.5 rushing yards (-115) on betmgm
Williams and his running mate, Melvin Gordon, crazily had the same number of carries (203) and roughly the same amount of yards in 2021 (Gordon had 918 and Williams had 903). It appears that Williams has been given a bigger share of the load in camp, and projects as such in 2022. Denver has the easiest schedule among the AFC West teams, and a head coach who previously coached for a team that supported two running backs in the Green Bay Packers. Bet over on Williams.
Las Vegas Raiders (+650, 8.5)
Bet to Make: Hunter Renfrow over 799.5 receiving yards (-115) on betmgm
Renfrow was remarkably efficient in 2021, turning 124 targets into over 1,000 regular-season yards for a surprise playoff team. The Raiders add Davante Adams into the fold, and Darren Waller returns from an injury-plagued season, but they go from Jon Gruden — who had Derek Carr throwing more downfield in recent seasons — to a Josh McDaniels-led system that has fed underneath slot receivers for years. I’m bullish on Renfrow.