- Detroit Lions remain contenders: The Lions simply have too much talent on their roster not to compete for the NFC North. However, staying healthy has been a recurring issue over the past two seasons, particularly on defense.
- The Saints can compete in a wide-open division: Despite finishing with the worst record in the division, the Saints won just two fewer games than the division-champion Panthers and only two fewer than the other two teams, as well.
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In 2025, both the Chicago Bears and New England Patriots went from last place in their respective divisions to division champions the very next season. It’s another reminder of how quickly fortunes can change in the NFL and how almost every year, at least one team makes the leap from worst to first.
With that in mind, we rank the eight teams that finished last in 2025 by their probability of pulling off a similar turnaround in 2026.
1. Detroit Lions
The Lions simply have too much talent on their roster not to compete for the NFC North. However, staying healthy has been a recurring issue over the past two seasons, particularly on defense.
Defensive backs D.J. Reed, Brian Branch, Kerby Joseph and Terrion Arnold — all projected starters — were on the field for an average of just 44% of Detroit’s defensive snaps, with none of them playing more than 746 of the Lions’ 1,104 snaps on that side of the ball.
Offensively, the Lions still boast elite playmakers. Amon-Ra St. Brown’s 90.7 PFF grade ranked third among wide receivers, while Jahmyr Gibbs placed sixth among running backs with an 85.6 mark. Jameson Williams finished among the top 40 wide receivers for the second straight season, and a healthy Sam LaPorta at tight end would provide an additional boost.
The biggest concern for the offense in 2025 was the offensive line, but Penei Sewell remains arguably the best lineman in football, and Detroit has every reason to believe its young guard duo of Christian Mahogany and Tate Ratledge will take a step forward in 2026.
2. New Orleans Saints
Putting together a list like this is often as much about the other three teams in a division as it is about the one that finished last. That’s certainly part of the equation with the New Orleans Saints in the NFC South — a division in which none of the four teams finished above .500 in 2025.
In fact, despite finishing with the worst record in the division, the Saints won just two fewer games than the division-champion Panthers and only two fewer than the other two teams, as well.
There’s also reason for optimism on offense. Quarterback Tyler Shough flashed plenty of promise late in the 2025 regular season, suggesting the unit can be at least serviceable with him under center. Star wide receiver Chris Olave finished with a 78.0 PFF overall grade, ranking 22nd among 128 qualifying receivers, and logged more than 850 snaps for the first time in his career.
If Olave can stay healthy and Shough continues on his current trajectory, the Saints’ offense should be competent in 2026, which may be enough to contend in a wide-open division.
3. New York Giants
Similar to the Saints, the Giants enter 2026 with a second-year quarterback who showed encouraging signs as a rookie. Jaxson Dart’s 68.4 PFF overall grade ranked 27th among quarterbacks, but his 76.9 PFF rushing grade placed seventh, highlighting the dual-threat element he brings to the offense.
New York also fielded one of the league’s most improved offensive lines, particularly in pass protection. The unit ranked third in the NFL in 2025 with an 87.6 PFF pass-blocking efficiency rating after surrendering just 15 sacks all season. Much of that improvement stemmed from left tackle Andrew Thomas staying healthy, as he eclipsed 800 regular-season snaps for only the second time since his 2020 rookie campaign. Thomas rewarded that availability with an 87.2 PFF pass-blocking grade, third among all offensive tackles.
The arrival of John Harbaugh as head coach should further raise the team’s floor. If Dart takes a meaningful sophomore leap, regains his top target in Malik Nabers and continues to benefit from strong offensive line play, the Giants’ offense could take a significant step forward. Combine that with the wide range of potential outcomes for the other three teams in the division, and New York has a legitimate path to competing for a division title.
4. Tennessee Titans
Stop me if you’ve heard this before in this article, but the Titans also have a second-year quarterback who showed enough flashes as a rookie to be optimistic about what he can bring in Year 2. Cam Ward’s best performance came late in the season against the Chiefs in Week 16, and his 89.9 PFF overall grade in that game ranked 27th among the 512 qualifying quarterback performances of the 2025 season.
Ward arguably faced the toughest situation of any of the second-year quarterbacks mentioned here. He lacked reliable weapons, and Tennessee’s offensive line battled injuries and inconsistency all season, ranking 25th in PFF pass-blocking efficiency.
That said, the AFC South is historically a division where volatility reigns, even if it was stronger than usual in 2025. New head coach Robert Saleh has an opportunity to build the defense around a strong interior defensive line anchored by Jeffery Simmons. If that unit takes shape and Ward makes a Year 2 leap, the Titans could make a significant jump from previous seasons. And in this division, that might be enough to compete for a title.
5. Cleveland Browns
Volatility reins in the AFC North, which could open the door for the Browns to win the division for the first time since 1989. The Baltimore Ravens and Pittsburgh Steelers will each have new head coaches for the first time in more than 15 years, while the Cincinnati Bengals fielded one of the league’s worst defenses in 2025 and could also lose edge defender Trey Hendrickson to free agency.
Admittedly, Cleveland struggled mightily on offense last season, pairing one of the league’s weakest offensive lines and receiving corps with inconsistent quarterback play. However, the Browns still boast a strong defense anchored by arguably the best defensive player in football, Myles Garrett. They also have promising young building blocks across the roster, including linebacker Carson Schwesinger, interior defender Mason Graham, tight end Harold Fannin and running back Quinshon Judkins — all drafted last year.
If those young players continue to develop and the Browns can find even modest offensive stability under new head coach Todd Monken, Cleveland could find itself in the mix. And in a division with this much uncertainty, that might be enough to rise to the top.
6. Las Vegas Raiders
Two teams from the AFC West reached the playoffs in 2025 — including the conference’s No. 1 seed — while the Kansas City Chiefs remain firmly in the mix as a division favorite entering 2026. That leaves the Raiders, at least on paper, as the clear fourth-best team in the division.
Still, the NFL moves quickly. Just look at the 2025 Bears and Patriots. A new coaching staff, now led by Klint Kubiak, could spark meaningful change in Las Vegas.
The Raiders are widely expected to select quarterback Fernando Mendoza with the No. 1 overall pick. If the former Indiana signal-caller adapts quickly to the NFL, he’ll have legitimate blue-chip talent to lean on. Tight end Brock Bowers, left tackle Kolton Miller and — for now — edge defender Maxx Crosby are difference-makers at premium positions.
7. Arizona Cardinals
The Cardinals are in a difficult position. All three of their NFC West rivals reached the playoffs in 2025; two advanced to the NFC Championship Game, and the Seahawks went on to win the Super Bowl. Realistically, Arizona faces an uphill battle to finish ahead of even one of those teams in 2026 — let alone all three.
There’s also limited clarity on the roster heading into the offseason. The starting quarterback job remains unsettled, and the wide receiver situation is similarly murky after Michael Wilson outplayed former first-round pick Marvin Harrison Jr. down the stretch. While Trey McBride is arguably the best tight end in football, he alone cannot carry the offense.
There were flashes on defense, but consistency was lacking. A full second season from interior defender Walter Nolen and cornerback Will Johnson could provide a meaningful boost, yet even with internal development, Arizona appears to have significant ground to make up in a loaded division.
8. New York Jets
By trading away cornerback Sauce Gardner and interior defender Quinnen Williams during the 2025 regular season, the Jets effectively signaled that long-term roster construction now outweighs short-term competitiveness. With Gardner, Williams and nickel corner Michael Carter II all gone, New York lacks high-end talent at every level of its defense.
The outlook on offense isn’t much brighter. The Jets fielded arguably the league’s weakest group of pass catchers in 2025 and are expected to lose running back Breece Hall in free agency. The quarterback situation offers little reassurance, either.
Taken together, it would be one of the biggest surprises of the 2026 season if the Jets seriously contended for the AFC East — especially in a division that includes the reigning AFC champions and Josh Allen’s Buffalo Bills.
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