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NFL Week 14 Sunday spread and over/under picks

After going 1-2 last week, we are 20-16 on the season. We are onto Week 14, where the Cowboys and Bears fight for who can go under their season win total faster, the Bills try to make a statement at home against the Ravens and we are blessed with a triple-header of Sunday games that includes SF at NO (1 ET), KC at NE (4:25) and SEA at LA (8:20). 

In order to right the ship, we made many sacrifices to the football Gods over the past week, so with that, we appreciate the prayers and thoughts.

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Cincinnati Bengals (+8) at Cleveland Browns

Point (George Chahouri):

At first, it is quite worrisome to take the worst team in the NFL on the road, but then you look on the other side of the field and you see Freddie Kitchens favored by 8 points and you download the RocketMortgage app. The Browns are playing like the color in their name, allowing 11.4 yards per clean pocket pass attempt to a duck hunter while Baker Mayfield and his hurt hand could have used some hunters of that ilk to find his throws, which averaged just 4.0 yards per clean pocket attempt. Andy Dalton is still worse than Skyline Chili when under pressure, but the Browns are without Myles Garrett and are still suffering from the bad juju that comes with pregame festivities that involve a Mason Rudolph piñata and a helmet subbing for a baseball bat. Taking into account Mayfield’s iffy right hand, Dalton is at worst his equal and is getting more than a touchdown.

Counterpoint (Eric Eager):

Our model shows value on the Bengals again this week, and unlike last week when we eschewed Cincinnati +3.5 once the line moved, I think we’ll be able to go with this one. That makes me a little nervous that we’re basing this pick too much on the fact that the hometown crew is 3-0 ATS the last three weeks, and buying them at the top of the market while fading a team that just lost to a guy named Duck at the bottom of their market. While I very much like the fundamentals of this pick (especially fading Freddie Kitchens), if Olivier Vernon is healthy and the Bengals offensive line does not turn in the type of performance they did last week (allowing only seven pressures) against a similarly-weak team on the edge defensively in the Jets, this one might become dicey along the Mistake on the Lake.

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