The New England Patriots head to Empower Field at Mile High on Sunday, Jan. 25, for a high-stakes AFC showdown with the Denver Broncos, with kickoff set for 3:00 p.m. EST on CBS.
While both teams finished neck-and-neck atop the conference, the storyline shifted dramatically after Broncos quarterback Bo Nix suffered a season-ending ankle injury in the divisional round. Denver will now turn to backup Jarrett Stidham, whose limited starting résumé and 53.3 PFF grade across 234 career dropbacks make this a defining moment in his career.
On the other side stands Drake Maye, who has quietly emerged as one of the AFC’s most efficient quarterbacks, having led New England to a 14–3 record and an AFC East title while earning a 90.1 PFF grade.
Below, we break down the spread, moneyline and total using PFF's market data, compare the two starting quarterbacks through stable efficiency metrics and highlight the team-level advantages that could swing this game.
This preview also dives into notable injuries, trench mismatches and unit-level grades that matter most on Sunday, with all data powered by PFF Premium Stats and betting projections.
Click here to see PFF's data-backed bets for this game
Team Metrics
| Patriots | Broncos | |
|---|---|---|
| Power Rank: Overall | 5th | 13th |
| Power Rank: Defense | 3rd | 4th |
| Power Rank: Offense | 4th | 10th |
| SOS Played | 32nd | 8th |
| Avg Offensive Snaps | 65.4 | 68.6 |
| % Run Plays | 40.6% | 36.4% |
| % Pass Plays | 59.4% | 63.6% |
| EPA Per Run | -0.14 | -0.10 |
| EPA Per Pass | 0.24 | 0.07 |
QB Comparison
| Patriots | Broncos | |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | D. Maye | J. Stidham |
| PFF Grade | 87.4 | 60.0 |
| Passer Rating Clean | 118.9 | — |
| Passer Rating Under Pressure | 93.0 | — |
| Big-Time Throw % | 4.08% | — |
| Turnover-Worthy Play % | 2.96% | — |
| Power Rating | 5.5 | 0.0 |
| Power Rating Rank | 5th | 29th |
Key Injuries: Patriots
| Player | Pos | Injury | Status | Grade | Pos WAR Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Davis III | CB | Head | Q | 71.3 | 26th |
| M. Hollins | WR | Torso | IR | 67.5 | 73rd |
| T. Jennings | HB | Head | IR-R | 65.2 | 90th |
| A. Gibson | HB | Leg | IR | 55.1 | 123rd |
| J. Farmer | DI | Leg | IR | 49.0 | 151st |
| C. Reynolds | HB | Other | OUT | 48.3 | 129th |
Key Injuries: Broncos
| Player | Pos | Injury | Status | Grade | Pos WAR Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B. Nix | QB | Leg | OUT | 77.1 | 10th |
| J. Dobbins | HB | Leg | IR-R | 76.8 | 49th |
| L. Wattenberg | C | Arm | IR | 70.9 | 9th |
| B. Jones | S | Torso | IR | 64.2 | 42nd |
| P. Bryant | WR | Head | Q | 63.3 | 70th |
| A. Forsyth | C | Leg | Q | 62.5 | 32nd |
| T. Franklin | WR | Leg | Q | 62.3 | 103rd |
Betting insights: Spread
| Spread | Patriots | Broncos |
|---|---|---|
| Market | -5.5 (-110) | +5.5 (-110) |
| PFF Projection | -3.8 | +3.8 |
| Implied Cover Probability | 46.5% | 53.5% |
Betting insights: Moneyline
| Moneyline | Patriots | Broncos |
|---|---|---|
| Market | -252 | +206 |
| PFF Projection | -179 | +180 |
| Implied Win Probability | 64.1% | 35.8% |
Betting insights: Total
| Total | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|
| Market | 41.5 (-110) | 41.5 (-110) |
| PFF Projection | 41.9 | 41.9 |
| Implied Cover Probability | 49.8% | 50.2% |
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