• Jonathan Taylor's extension will say a lot about the RB market: If Taylor can’t get up into the $15 million-per-year range, alarm bells should go from a low drum to a full-on siren for his positional peers.
• Tristan Wirfs' move to LT adds further intrigue to an extension: Wirfs is expected to slide over from right tackle, where he has been utterly dominant, to the blindside this upcoming season, potentially skyrocketing his extension value.
• The often boom-or-boom Trevon Diggs could reset the CB market: It's a market that quietly hasn’t grown much since Jalen Ramsey’s $20 million-per-year extension in 2020. However, the Cowboys also have other extensions looming.
Estimated Reading Time: 11 minutes
Quarterback: Jared Goff, Detroit Lions
There will be plenty of intrigue at the top of the quarterback market with the Cincinnati Bengals and Los Angeles Chargers inking Joe Burrow and Justin Herbert to deals worth the GDP of a small country. But while the structures will be fascinating, we have a good idea of where the values will land and how they will shape the future roster construction of each club.
Goff, however, is the next in line of the above-average quarterbacks who create a difficult decision for a club balancing between the fear of letting a good thing go and the fear of the unknown.
Goff has undeniable arm talent and led a high-powered Detroit Lions offense in 2022 that should only improve, but he’s also failed to eclipse a 72.5 passing grade in four straight seasons and has had more turnover-worthy plays than big-time throws in three straight. In today’s NFL, his lack of athleticism shows up a bit more than it would have during the traditional pocket passer times, making his ceiling pretty clearly limited.
Will the Lions nonetheless extend Goff, who will end the 2023 season at 29 years old, if he has another good but not great season? Or will they roll the dice and try to shoot for the moon in the draft or otherwise? If they can get Goff to agree to a deal that doesn’t hamstring their ability to spend elsewhere, it could be worth it. But good luck negotiating that contract with a former No. 1 overall pick who topped the market on his first extension.
Running Back: Jonathan Taylor, Indianapolis Colts
The value of Taylor’s extension this offseason, if he signs one, will truly be a watershed moment for the NFL and the running back position. One week before the Colts traded up in the second round for Taylor, the Carolina Panthers signed Christian McCaffrey to a four-year extension worth just more than $16 million a year. No back has come particularly close since.
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