Betting News & Analysis

Premium Content Sign Up

Long-shot bets worth making ahead of the 2022 NFL season

• Does new Indianapolis Colts quarterback Matt Ryan have another MVP season in him? His odds stand at +4000 on BetMGM to do so in 2022.

• If the Raiders are to keep up in a stacked AFC West, quarterback Derek Carr will have to air it out often — making him a prime long-shot candidate to have the most passing touchdowns in the league.

• Atlanta Falcons tight end Kyle Pitts has +6600 odds on BetMGM to lead the NFL in receptions this season.


Everyone loves having some skin in the game, right?

Here are seven long-shot NFL bets you can make right now for the 2022 season.

All PFF+ subscribers now have access to our revamped fantasy football draft guide, which has all the streamlined and intuitive features you’ll need to dominate your draft this season. CLICK HERE TO SIGN UP FOR PFF+ AND TRY IT FREE TODAY

QB Matt Ryan to Win MVP

BetMGM Odds: +4000

We start the long-shot bets with Matt Ryan, who currently has the 15th-best odds to win MVP. As we all know, this is a quarterback award; the last non-quarterback to take home the honor was Adrian Peterson in 2012. Ryan has won this award before, so he’s no stranger to that kind of success. But he’s in a new spot now as the starting quarterback of the Indianapolis Colts. Even with the change of scenery, the bet is a favorable long shot — if there is such a thing.

Ryan may be almost 38 years old, but he is still capable of good play. He produced three 88.0-plus passing grades or better last year, two of which had elite overall grades, as well. Though the passing yards were down last year, his 73.7% adjusted completion rate was still reliable. Outside of Ryan, the Colts came in at No. 10 in PFF’s offensive line rankings for 2022. They have another MVP candidate at running back in Jonathan Taylor, a budding No. 1 receiver in Michael Pittman Jr. and a defense that finished top 10 in the league in terms of overall grade.

Throw in the fact that head coach Frank Reich has been a quarterback wizard in his career, and that the Colts play in one of the easier divisions, and you have a recipe for a long-shot bet worth making.


Baltimore Ravens vs. San Francisco 49ers Super Bowl Matchup

BetMGM Odds: +8000

Beyond just betting on which teams will win the Super Bowl, you can also customize matchups. I like the Ravens and the Niners as a long-shot call for a handful of reasons. For starters, the Ravens have one of the best head coaches in the NFL in John Harbaugh. Then, they have one of the best offensive weapons in the world touching the football every down in Lamar Jackson. Plus, their defense shouldn’t have near the bad injury luck it did a year before.

Subscribe to PFF+ to continue reading

Already have a subscription? Sign In

Betting Featured Tools

  • PFF's Best Bets Tool reveals the bets PFF's data and algorithms give the biggest edge to within spread, total, player prop, and moneyline markets.

    Available with

  • PFF predictions and real time spread, moneyline and over/under lines for each NFL game.

    Available with

  • PFF's Player Props Tool reveals betting opportunities within player prop markets.

    Available with

  • Power Rankings are PFF’s NFL power ratings based on weekly player grades in each facet of play. These power rankings are adjusted based on coach, quarterback and the market each season.

    Available with

  • PFF predictions and real time spread, moneyline and over/under lines for each NCAA game.

    Available with

Subscriptions

Unlock all tools and content including Player Grades, Fantasy, NFL Draft, Premium Stats, Greenline and DFS.

$9.99 / mo
$79.99 / yr