- Dak Prescott delivered his best clutch season in years: The Cowboys quarterback earned an 87.8 passing grade in clutch situations, recording nine big-time throws against four turnover-worthy plays and producing a positive grade on 31.2% of his snaps.
- Matthew Stafford and Sam Darnold paired aggressiveness with ball security: Stafford posted a 8.59% big-time throw rate with just a 1.78% turnover-worthy play rate, while Darnold generated seven big-time throws against only one turnover-worthy play.
- Elite clutch quarterback play is exceptionally rare: Only 22.8% of qualifying quarterback seasons have produced a grade above 75.0 in clutch situations, and just Matthew Stafford and Sam Darnold reached both a 7.0%-plus big-time throw rate and a sub-3.0% turnover-worthy play rate in 2025.
Few topics generate more debate than “clutch” quarterback play.
Every season brings renewed debate about the signal-callers fans would trust most with the game on the line. The quarterbacks supposedly built for the moment, with ice water in their veins and a reputation for delivering when the pressure is at its highest. Tom Brady built much of his legacy in these moments. Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen and Matthew Stafford have all authored their fair share of fairytale endings, too. But what does the data actually say?
PFF grade in “clutch situations”
For years, game-winning drives have served as the default measure of quarterback “clutchness.” The problem is that they often capture far more than quarterback play. A defense surrendering a late lead, a special teams return that flips field position or a receiver creating yards after the catch can all contribute to a game-winning drive. In that sense, the statistic suffers from many of the same shortcomings as quarterback wins: It reflects a real outcome, but not necessarily an individual performance.
As part of PFF's 2026 NFL Quarterback Annual, we set out to evaluate quarterback play in those moments more directly using PFF grades and a variety of advanced metrics. For this newsletter, we're focusing specifically on grading in clutch situations, defined as fourth-quarter and overtime plays when a team trails by 14 points or fewer or leads by 8 points or fewer, excluding garbage time. In other words, these are the snaps that matter most when the game is still hanging in the balance.
The clutch quarterbacks of the 2025 NFL Season
So, who actually performed best when the game was on the line? Here are the NFL's highest-graded quarterbacks in clutch situations during the 2025 season among players with at least 45 dropbacks.
Prescott earned an 87.8 passing grade in clutch situations in 2025, the second-highest mark of his career and nearly 10 grading points better than his previous best (78.3 in 2021).
The Cowboys quarterback recorded nine big-time throws against just four turnover-worthy plays while averaging 8.1 yards per attempt. More importantly, he consistently stacked positive plays, earning a positive grade on 31.2% of his snaps, the fifth-highest rate among 43 qualifiers.
Prescott has now cleared a 70.0 grade in clutch situations in six of his 10 qualifying seasons, giving him a stronger long-term track record in these situations than his public reputation often suggests.
Stafford generated 14 big-time throws against just three turnover-worthy plays across 156 dropbacks in clutch situations. His 8.59% big-time throw rate ranked third among qualifying quarterbacks, while his 8.6 yards per attempt also ranked third.
Just as importantly, Stafford limited negative plays under pressure, taking a sack on only 9.6% of his pressured dropbacks in these high-leverage moments. The result was another elite season in a category where he has repeatedly excelled. His 91.6 clutch grade in 2021 remains the second-highest single-season mark of the PFF era, and 2025 showed he is still capable of producing at a similar level.
Jackson's sample was smaller than the quarterbacks around him, as he totaled just 65 dropbacks in clutch situations, but few passers were more effective when given the opportunity.
He led the NFL in yards per attempt in clutch situations (10.2) and recorded only one turnover-worthy play in the process. His 1.45% turnover-worthy play rate was the lowest among the top five quarterbacks in these rankings, while his 34.8% positive-play rate ranked third league-wide.
When Jackson pulled the trigger, the ball was typically going to the right place. His 68.3% accurate-pass rate ranked fifth among qualifying quarterbacks, rounding out one of the most efficient clutch performances in the NFL.
The Seahawks quarterback posted just a 0.89% turnover-worthy play rate, generating seven big-time throws against just one turnover-worthy play across 103 clutch dropbacks. But his success wasn't simply about avoiding mistakes.
Darnold ranked among the NFL's top five quarterbacks in several key efficiency metrics, including accurate throw rate (73.3%, third), negatively graded play rate (8.9%, fifth) and yards per attempt (8.4, fifth). The combination of accuracy, efficiency and ball security helped produce one of the strongest clutch seasons of any quarterback in 2025.
Allen enters virtually every season as the consensus favorite for clutch quarterback. The Bills star has now posted a clutch grade above 70.0 in five of eight qualifying seasons, including four above 75.0, giving him one of the strongest long-term résumés in these situations among active quarterbacks.
Allen remained productive across the board in clutch moments last season, ranking fourth in yards per attempt (8.5), eighth in accurate throw rate (66.9%) and sixth in PFF passing grade. While his 6.5% big-time throw rate ranked 12th among qualifiers, he consistently generated positive results when the game was hanging in the balance.
Highlights of the full dataset
- Most quarterbacks don't elevate in clutch situations: Across 720 qualifying quarterback-seasons (minimum 45 dropbacks), the median clutch grade is 65.0. Only 22.8% grade above 75.0, while 34.3% of those seasons grade below 60.0.
- The all-time high belongs to Peyton Manning in 2006: Manning earned a 92.0 grade, with a 9.48% big-time throw rate and a 2.50% turnover-worthy play rate.
- The all-time low belongs to Blake Bortles in 2017: Bortles' 28.0 mark in 2017 was driven by a 12.73% turnover-worthy play rate. More than one in every eight clutch dropbacks resulted in a turnover-worthy play that threatened to send the drive in the wrong direction.
- The elite combination: A big-time throw rate above 7.0% paired with a turnover-worthy play rate below 3.0%. That profile appears in just 10.2% of qualifying seasons in the PFF database. In 2025, only Matthew Stafford (8.59% BTT rate, 1.78% TWP rate) and Sam Darnold (7.22%, 0.89%) met both thresholds.
- The opposite profile: Low big-time throw rates paired with elevated turnover-worthy play rates. Cam Ward (2.65% BTT rate, 5.30% TWP rate), Michael Penix Jr. (1.41%, 5.13%) and C.J. Stroud (1.28%, 4.60%) all fit that mold in 2025. When the game was on the line, the splash plays were scarce, and the mistakes were too frequent.
- The quarterbacks who consistently earn high clutch grades across multiple seasons are the ones who deserve the label: Only 35.1% of qualifying quarterback seasons in the PFF database have produced a clutch grade above 70.0. Joe Burrow has cleared that mark in five of six seasons. Tom Brady did so in 13 of 16. Aaron Rodgers has reached it in 13 of 18, while Patrick Mahomes has done it in six of nine. Even Tony Romo — a quarterback whose reputation in these situations remains a point of debate — graded above 70.0 in eight of 10 seasons.
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