• The 2021 New York Giants scored only 15.2 points per game (second worst in the league) while dealing with injuries to Daniel Jones and ineffective coaching by Joe Judge and Jason Garrett. A defense that had a significant amount of talent was unable to capitalize on it due to difficult positions it was put into by its offense.
• Fast forward to 2022, when there’s a new coaching staff, two new top-10 picks along the line of scrimmage in OT Evan Neal and Kayvon Thibodeax, a really easy schedule and expectations in the Big Apple.
CURRENT POWER RANKING: 24th
|1||Sun, Sep 11||@ Tennessee|
|2||Sun, Sep 18||vs Carolina|
|3||Mon, Sep 26||vs Dallas|
|4||Sun, Oct 2||vs Chicago|
|5||Sun, Oct 9||vs Green Bay|
|6||Sun, Oct 16||vs Baltimore|
|7||Sun, Oct 23||@ Jacksonville|
|8||Sun, Oct 30||@ Seattle|
|10||Sun, Nov 13||vs Houston|
|11||Sun, Nov 20||vs Detroit|
|12||Thu, Nov 24||@ Dallas|
|13||Sun, Dec 4||vs Washington|
|14||Sun, Dec 11||vs Philadelphia|
|15||Sun, Dec 18||@ Washington|
|16||Sat, Dec 24||@ Minnesota|
|17||Sat, Jan 1||vs Indianapolis|
|18||Sat, Jan 8||@ Philadelphia|
Win Total: 7 (-110 over, -110 under
We make the Giants’ win total 8.3, with them going over seven wins 61.8% of the time (-256), winning exactly seven games 14.0% of the time and under seven wins 24.21% of the time (+256). Not only is over seven wins a good bet, but some alt overs are also something to consider for the G-Men.
Best Bet: Giants Over 7 wins is positive EV. A $20 bet would return $38.18 at BetMGM.
Make Playoffs: +230 yes (30.3%), -280 no (73.7%)
Breakeven % yes: 30.3%
Breakeven % NO: 73.7%
We make the Giants a 38.0% team to make the playoffs, meaning the “yes” here is a good bet to make. The NFC is so weak, as is the Giants schedule specifically, so even a modest improvement by this team should result in contention.
Best Bet: Giants to make the playoffs at +230. A $20 bet would return $66 at BetMGM.
NFC East Title: +750
Breakeven %: 11.8%
We give the Giants a 17.4% chance to win the NFC East, so at 15/2 there is value here too. The path is pretty clear: a repeat of 2020, when the Cowboys flamed out because of bad luck, and no one else steps up to the plate. Philadelphia represents the narrowness of this path, as does Washington, to a lesser extent.
Best Bet: There is value on Big Blue winning the NFC East at +750. A $20 bet would return $170 at BetMGM.
Super Bowl: +15000
Breakeven %: 0.7%
We give the Giants a 1.0% chance to win the Super Bowl, which would be their fifth in franchise history. I wouldn’t blame anyone for not betting into that possibility given what has been said about this team’s quarterback position this summer.
Best Bet: Avoid
Saquon Barkley over 900.5 rushing yards -120
This is probably Barkley’s last chance to show the Giants that using the second-overall pick on him in the 2018 draft was not a waste of resources. Talent has never been the issue with Saquon, durability has been. If he’s healthy, he should have the volume given their schedule and as such should easily be able to go over this total.
Breakeven %: 54.5%
Kayvon Thibodeux to be Defensive Rookie of the Year +550
Breakeven %: 15.4%
The schedule makes this enticing, but as a rule of thumb the favorites in this market are just bad bets. There is no season simulation that has Thibodeaux being the DROY in one out of every six simulations, so this is a layoff for me, even if I project Thibodeaux to be a good player.
Best Bet: Barkley to surpass 900 rushing yards. A $20 bet would return $36.67 at BetMGM.
Breakeven % is the rate a simulated outcome must occur for a bet to be positive EV.