Recently, I did a thorough statistical analysis of the Mike Martz offense and how I expect it to impact the Chicago Bears fantasy value in 2010 and beyond. Today I will be doing the same thing, but for another new coach—new Redskins head man Mike Shanahan.
After spending 8 years in the college ranks, Shanahan began his pro coaching career as an assistant in 1984 before accepting his first head coaching job from the Los Angeles Raiders in 1988. He was fired in 1989, but returned to the head coaching ranks in 1995 as the main man for the Denver Broncos, a post that he held until he was fired following the 2008 season.
Now that you have a little bit of a background on his head coaching career, I’d like to point out that this study will focus only on the 14 seasons Shanahan spent in Denver. The game evolves constantly and I do not want my data skewed by statistics from the late 1980s. Instead, I will utilize the 14,635 offensive plays executed by the Broncos starting with the 1995 season and ending at the conclusion of the 2008 campaign.
Play Calling:
The first thing I look at when compiling projections is the team and coach history in the play calling department. Finding a trend in average offensive plays per game, % of those plays that are sacks, % of those plays that are pass attempts, and % of those plays that are rushes is the basis for team projections.
| Chart 1 | ||||||
| Year | W | L | Plays | Sack % | Pass% | Run% |
| 1995 | 8 | 8 | 66 | 2% | 56% | 42% |
| 1996 | 13 | 3 | 68 | 3% | 49% | 48% |
| 1997 | 12 | 4 | 67 | 3% | 48% | 49% |
| 1998 | 14 | 2 | 65 | 2% | 47% | 50% |
| 1999 | 6 | 10 | 66 | 3% | 53% | 44% |
| 2000 | 11 | 5 | 70 | 3% | 51% | 46% |
| 2001 | 8 | 8 | 65 | 4% | 49% | 47% |
| 2002 | 9 | 7 | 66 | 4% | 52% | 43% |
| 2003 | 10 | 6 | 65 | 2% | 46% | 52% |
| 2004 | 10 | 6 | 67 | 1% | 49% | 50% |
| 2005 | 13 | 3 | 64 | 2% | 45% | 53% |
| 2006 | 9 | 7 | 61 | 3% | 47% | 50% |
| 2007 | 7 | 9 | 61 | 3% | 53% | 44% |
| 2008 | 8 | 8 | 64 | 1% | 61% | 38% |
| Avg | 10 | 6 | 65 | 3% | 50% | 47% |
At first glance, it’s hard to see much of a trend here. You might notice that Shanahan’s 2 pass-heaviest seasons came in his first (56%) and last (61%) seasons in Denver, but, other than that, it’s hard to pick up much from this without sorting by Win/Loss record, which brings me to…
| Chart 2 | ||||||
| Year | W | L | Plays | Sack % | Pass% | Run% |
| 1999 | 6 | 10 | 66 | 3% | 53% | 44% |
| 2007 | 7 | 9 | 61 | 3% | 53% | 44% |
| 1995 | 8 | 8 | 66 | 2% | 56% | 42% |
| 2001 | 8 | 8 | 65 | 4% | 49% | 47% |
| 2008 | 8 | 8 | 64 | 1% | 61% | 38% |
| 2002 | 9 | 7 | 66 | 4% | 52% | 43% |
| 2006 | 9 | 7 | 61 | 3% | 47% | 50% |
| 2003 | 10 | 6 | 65 | 2% | 46% | 52% |
| 2004 | 10 | 6 | 67 | 1% | 49% | 50% |
| 2000 | 11 | 5 | 70 | 3% | 51% | 46% |
| 1997 | 12 | 4 | 67 | 3% | 48% | 49% |
| 1996 | 13 | 3 | 68 | 3% | 49% | 48% |
| 2005 | 13 | 3 | 64 | 2% | 45% | 53% |
| 1998 | 14 | 2 | 65 | 2% | 47% | 50% |
| Avg | 10 | 6 | 65 | 3% | 50% | 47% |
This is quite better. Generally speaking, coaches will call for a run more often when ahead in games, so it’s no surprise to see that Shanahan’s run-heaviest years came when his team had a great record. In fact, note that he never ran the ball more than 47% in a season the Broncos were .500 or worse. He ran 48% or more 7 of the 9 seasons his team was above .500.
So, like with Martz, we first need to figure out what kind of record to expect from the Redskins in 2010 before we can make an accurate prediction on the sack:pass:run ratio. Something to consider when making this prediction is that Shanahan never had a season worse than 6-10 while in Denver and won 10 games in half of his 14 seasons there. Still, he’s taking over a team with many holes to fill, so a prediction somewhere between 7-9 and 9-7 is both conservative and reasonable. That leaves us with a pretty solid sample size on Chart 2. In the 6 seasons a Shanahan team was between 7-9 and 9-7, it averaged 64 plays per game. Run and Sack percentages were a bit more volatile, but a 3% sack rate (near league average) and 44% run rate are fair projections based on our sample. When compared to my early sack:pass:run ratio projections for the other 31 NFL teams, 44% run would place Washington as the 13th run-heaviest team in the league.
Rushing:
Next, I’ll be taking a look at how Mike Shanahan spread the carries across the depth chart.
| Chart 3 | ||||||||||||
| Year | W | L | Att | Yds | TD | QB | RB1 | RB2 | RBO | FB | WR | TE |
| 1995 | 8 | 8 | 440 | 1995 | 14 | 11% | 54% | 11% | 6% | 17% | 2% | 0% |
| 1996 | 13 | 3 | 525 | 2362 | 20 | 13% | 66% | 9% | 0% | 11% | 1% | 0% |
| 1997 | 12 | 4 | 520 | 2378 | 18 | 11% | 71% | 9% | 5% | 3% | 1% | 0% |
| 1998 | 14 | 2 | 525 | 2468 | 26 | 12% | 75% | 10% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 0% |
| 1999 | 6 | 10 | 465 | 1864 | 13 | 12% | 72% | 11% | 2% | 4% | 0% | 0% |
| 2000 | 11 | 5 | 516 | 2311 | 21 | 10% | 70% | 13% | 4% | 1% | 1% | 0% |
| 2001 | 8 | 8 | 481 | 1877 | 7 | 14% | 68% | 14% | 2% | 0% | 2% | 0% |
| 2002 | 9 | 7 | 457 | 2266 | 21 | 9% | 60% | 18% | 9% | 0% | 4% | 0% |
| 2003 | 10 | 6 | 543 | 2629 | 20 | 9% | 64% | 16% | 6% | 2% | 4% | 0% |
| 2004 | 10 | 6 | 534 | 2333 | 13 | 12% | 59% | 22% | 4% | 1% | 2% | 0% |
| 2005 | 13 | 3 | 542 | 2539 | 25 | 11% | 44% | 32% | 10% | 2% | 2% | 0% |
| 2006 | 9 | 7 | 488 | 2152 | 12 | 10% | 59% | 21% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 0% |
| 2007 | 7 | 9 | 429 | 1957 | 10 | 11% | 63% | 17% | 3% | 4% | 2% | 0% |
| 2008 | 8 | 8 | 387 | 1862 | 15 | 15% | 49% | 20% | 13% | 0% | 3% | 0% |
| Avg | 10 | 6 | 489 | 2214 | 17 | 11% | 63% | 16% | 5% | 3% | 2% | 0% |
Remember that reputation Mike Shanahan had late in his Broncos career? The one where he could take any running back and make him a 1,000 yard rusher? Although that is something to, at least, keep in the back of your mind heading into your 2010 draft, I’d put more stock into the numbers you see in the RB1 column in Chart 3. Note that early in his career with Denver, Shanahan utilized his RB1 a lot more than he did later on. This should not be overly alarming when you consider that the NFL has evolved into a 2-back league over the last few years. Still, it’s pretty clear to see that more of the carries went to the RB2, RB3, etc. as the years went on. In the end, the RB1 averaged 63% of the team’s carries, but note that the RB1 carried it more than 59% of the time only once during Shanahan’s final 5 seasons in Denver. That said, it’s safe to say we should bump that figure down to somewhere around 60%.
Including the fullback, other backs on the roster averaged 24% of the carries while Shanahan was in town. However, that number was no lower than 24% during his last five seasons and even grew as high as 44% in 2005. 27-30% is a fair projection for 2010.
That leaves us with Tight End and Wide Receiver. Tight ends carried the ball a grand total of 5 times during Shanahan’s 14 seasons in Denver, so it’s safe to say Chris Cooley won’t be asked to run an end around. Receivers averaged 2%, which conveniently, is exactly what one should’ve expected even before Shanahan’s hire.
What does all this mean for the 2010 Redskins? For starters, we need to figure out which of Clinton Portis, Larry Johnson, and Willie Parker will make the team. From there, we need to determine if one will be the feature back or if they will rotate. Based on this study and assuming no injuries, it seems that Shanahan will look to establish one back as the primary ballcarrier. The incumbent Portis jumps out at me, but Johnson could just as easily take the job. In fact, the safest bet might be to assume that Shanahan will feature one back one week and another the next—much like you see from Bill Belichick in New England.
The rest of the carries should be pretty easy to figure out. Donovan McNabb will take care of around 11%, while Mike Sellers should see around 2%. The receivers will combine for about 2% and my guess is Santana Moss and Devin Thomas split those down the middle.
Receiving:
Next up, we take a look at who the passes are directed to in the Shanahan offense.
| Chart 4 | |||||||||||
| Year | W | L | RB | FB | WR1 | WR2 | WR3 | WR4 | WRO | TE1 | TEO |
| 1995 | 8 | 8 | 23% | 12% | 17% | 11% | 9% | 3% | 2% | 18% | 5% |
| 1996 | 13 | 3 | 13% | 12% | 17% | 15% | 5% | 5% | 0% | 24% | 8% |
| 1997 | 12 | 4 | 17% | 5% | 24% | 16% | 7% | 1% | 0% | 25% | 5% |
| 1998 | 14 | 2 | 10% | 6% | 30% | 22% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 22% | 2% |
| 1999 | 6 | 10 | 12% | 9% | 25% | 22% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 17% | 9% |
| 2000 | 11 | 5 | 9% | 5% | 28% | 29% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 14% | 14% |
| 2001 | 8 | 8 | 10% | 0% | 36% | 5% | 4% | 4% | 10% | 16% | 16% |
| 2002 | 9 | 7 | 21% | 0% | 25% | 19% | 10% | 1% | 0% | 17% | 8% |
| 2003 | 10 | 6 | 24% | 0% | 26% | 13% | 7% | 1% | 1% | 22% | 5% |
| 2004 | 10 | 6 | 16% | 3% | 26% | 18% | 10% | 3% | 2% | 12% | 10% |
| 2005 | 13 | 3 | 14% | 7% | 30% | 15% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 13% | 9% |
| 2006 | 9 | 7 | 19% | 6% | 27% | 20% | 8% | 4% | 2% | 7% | 8% |
| 2007 | 7 | 9 | 14% | 4% | 31% | 12% | 8% | 4% | 2% | 15% | 9% |
| 2008 | 8 | 8 | 11% | 0% | 27% | 24% | 13% | 3% | 4% | 10% | 8% |
| Avg | 10 | 6 | 15% | 5% | 26% | 17% | 7% | 2% | 2% | 17% | 8% |
The first thing I noticed on this chart was the fluctuation in pass completions to the runningbacks and fullbacks. Chart 4 shows that, on average, 15% of the passes went to the RB, while 5% went to the fullback. Although we do see a lot of fluctuation, note that in the 5 seasons spanning from 2004-to-2008, the RB caught between 14-16% of the passes 3 times. I suspect 15% of McNabb’s passes will go to the tailback in 2010. Fullback is a bit trickier considering the rash of injuries in 2008 and the fact that long-time Bronco Mike Anderson rotated in at fullback (he is considered a RB throughout this study). Still, the FB ended up with 5% of the receptions and considering Mike Sellers was targeted on 5% of the Redskins’ passes in 2009, 5% seems to be a safe bet for the FB in 2010.
As you can see from Chart 4, Shanahan is not afraid to put his top WR to use. Starting in 1997, his WR1 never caught fewer than 24% of the team’s passes and reached as high as 36%. It’s worth noting, however, that Rod Smith, Brandon Marshall, and Javon Walker are responsible for every one of those seasons. Santana Moss will be the WR1 for Washington in 2010 and isn’t quite as big as those 3. Still, if you do something the same way for 12 straight seasons, odds are you’ll do it again. Expect Moss to be heavily targeted in 2010.
Receptions to the WR2 fluctuated throughout the years with the biggest marks coming from Ed McCaffrey. Shanahan’s career average ended up at 17%, but that figure has bounced around the past few seasons. Still, a WR2 has caught at least 15% of the team’s passes 11 of Shanahan’s 14 seasons, so expect Devin Thomas to at least hit that marker.
The average Shanahan WR3 caught 7% of the team’s passes, but that number didn’t drop below 7% during any of Shanahan’s final 7 seasons in Denver and is only that low because of the Rod Smith, Ed McCaffrey, Shannon Sharpe years. 10% is a more realistic projection for Malcolm Kelly, who is projected as the team’s 3rd WR option.
That leaves about 3% for other WRs and 25% for tight ends. Conveniently and not coincidentally, 25% is the average pass completions to the tight end during Shanahan’s time in Denver. One might say that figure is inflated considering that Denver’s tight end for most of these seasons was Shannon Sharpe, who is responsible for all 4 seasons in which the TE1 caught at least 22% of the team’s passes. Although passes to the TE1 and to the tight end position as a whole did decline once Sharpe left town, remember that Washington has 2 elite pass-catching tight ends. In fact, in 2009, the Redskins passed to the tight end on, you guessed it, 25% of their pass attempts. You can see that looks were all but even between the TE1 and the combined efforts of the reserve tight ends from 2004 through 2008. A majority of those games saw Tony Scheffler as the top receiving option at tight end, with Stephen Alexander as the TE2 for 2 years and Daniel Graham taking the same role from 07-08. Cooley and Davis are better receiving threats than those three, but the splits should be close to the same. Expect about 15-17% to Cooley and 7-9% to Davis.
Passing:
Next up is a look at passing stats during the Shanahan era in Denver.
| Chart 5 | |||||||||
| Year | W | L | Top QBs | C% | YPC | YPA | TD/C | TD/A | INT/A |
| 1995 | 8 | 8 | Elway | 59% | 12.2 | 7.2 | 7.7% | 4.5% | 2.4% |
| 1996 | 13 | 3 | Elway | 61% | 11.2 | 6.8 | 8.0% | 4.9% | 3.2% |
| 1997 | 12 | 4 | Elway | 56% | 12.9 | 7.2 | 9.4% | 5.3% | 2.1% |
| 1998 | 14 | 2 | Elway/Brister | 59% | 13.1 | 7.8 | 11.0% | 6.5% | 2.9% |
| 1999 | 6 | 10 | Griese/Miller | 58% | 11.4 | 6.6 | 5.0% | 2.9% | 3.2% |
| 2000 | 11 | 5 | Griese/Frerotte | 62% | 12.6 | 7.8 | 7.9% | 4.9% | 2.1% |
| 2001 | 8 | 8 | Griese | 61% | 10.3 | 6.3 | 8.3% | 5.1% | 3.7% |
| 2002 | 9 | 7 | Griese/Beuerlein | 65% | 11.5 | 7.5 | 5.8% | 3.8% | 3.6% |
| 2003 | 10 | 6 | Plummer/Kanell | 58% | 11.2 | 6.5 | 6.8% | 4.0% | 3.8% |
| 2004 | 10 | 6 | Plummer | 58% | 13.5 | 7.8 | 8.9% | 5.2% | 3.8% |
| 2005 | 13 | 3 | Plummer | 60% | 12.1 | 7.3 | 6.5% | 3.9% | 1.5% |
| 2006 | 9 | 7 | Plummer/Cutler | 56% | 11.7 | 6.6 | 7.8% | 4.4% | 4.0% |
| 2007 | 7 | 9 | Cutler | 63% | 11.5 | 7.3 | 6.4% | 4.1% | 2.9% |
| 2008 | 8 | 8 | Cutler | 62% | 11.8 | 7.3 | 6.5% | 4.0% | 2.9% |
| Avg | 10 | 6 | 60% | 11.9 | 7.2 | 7.5% | 4.5% | 3.0% |
In an attempt to determine the impact Mike Shanahan could have on Donovan McNabb, we will use Chart 5 to try and find trends. Check out Chart 6 below to compare McNabb’s career numbers to those put up by Shanahan’s quarterbacks.
| Chart 6 | |||||||||
| Year | W | L | QB | C% | YPC | YPA | TD/C | TD/A | INT/A |
| 1999 | 2 | 4 | McNabb | 49% | 8.9 | 4.4 | 7.5% | 3.7% | 3.2% |
| 2000 | 11 | 5 | McNabb | 58% | 10.2 | 5.9 | 6.4% | 3.7% | 2.3% |
| 2001 | 11 | 5 | McNabb | 58% | 11.3 | 6.6 | 8.8% | 5.1% | 2.4% |
| 2002 | 7 | 3 | McNabb | 58% | 10.8 | 6.3 | 8.1% | 4.7% | 1.7% |
| 2003 | 12 | 4 | McNabb | 58% | 11.7 | 6.7 | 5.8% | 3.3% | 2.3% |
| 2004 | 13 | 2 | McNabb | 64% | 12.9 | 8.3 | 10.3% | 6.6% | 1.7% |
| 2005 | 4 | 5 | McNabb | 59% | 11.9 | 7.0 | 7.6% | 4.5% | 2.5% |
| 2006 | 5 | 5 | McNabb | 57% | 14.7 | 8.4 | 10.0% | 5.7% | 1.9% |
| 2007 | 8 | 6 | McNabb | 62% | 11.4 | 7.0 | 6.5% | 4.0% | 1.5% |
| 2008 | 9 | 6 | McNabb | 60% | 11.4 | 6.9 | 6.7% | 4.0% | 1.9% |
| 2009 | 10 | 4 | McNabb | 60% | 13.3 | 8.0 | 8.2% | 5.0% | 2.3% |
| Career | 92 | 49 | McNabb | 59% | 11.7 | 6.9 | 7.7% | 4.6% | 2.1% |
First off, we see that Quarterbacks under Shanahan averaged a 60% completion percentage. McNabb’s career average is 59% and he’s been right on 60% each of the last 2 NFL seasons. 60% for McNabb in 2010 is a fair projection.
Conveniently, Yard and Touchdown stats follow right along the path that completion percentage did. Shanahan QBs averaged 11.9 yards-per-completion and 7.2 yards-per-attempt. McNabb’s career figures in those departments are 11.7 and 6.9, respectively. In fact, if you look at the fluctuation through each season between Shanahan and McNabb, they are similar. A few seasons of YPC are above 13, a couple around 12 and a few years closer to 11. Despite 13.3 and 8.0 numbers in these categories last season, the move to Washington means McNabb is unlikely to repeat those numbers.
Touchdowns are similar, as well. Shanahan put up a 7.5% Touchdown/Completion mark and a 4.5% TD/Attempt mark. McNabb’s career numbers are 7.7% and 4.6%, respectively. Both Shanahan and McNabb saw double-figures at least once in the TD/C department and saw dips down under 7% (2 of McNabb’s last 3 seasons and 3 of Shanahan’s last 4, actually).
The biggest difference between Shanahan’s quarterbacks and McNabb is the interception mark. McNabb has always done a nice job keeping the ball away from opponents as indicated by his 2.1% career interception mark. 5 seasons under 2% is very impressive. Shanahan has had only one season where his QBs stayed under 2% (2005) and has a career average of 3%. Although the offense could certainly impact an interception rate, quarterbacks are most responsible for it. McNabb has been right around 2% his entire career and that should be the case again in 2010.
Conclusion:
At this point, it should be no secret whose fantasy value I feel will benefit and suffer because of the Mike Shanahan hiring in Washington. Donovan McNabb will take a hit because of the move from Philadelphia, but should still be a starting quarterback in 12-team leagues. Santana Moss will be drafted in every format, but bump him up your cheat sheet. He will see a ton of looks from McNabb and should be treated as a top 20 WR. Unless it is made clear that one of Portis-Johnson-Parker is the feature back, you don’t want any of them in your starting lineup.
For some perspective, here is where the Redskins relevant fantasy contributors currently rank at their position in my early PPR rankings for 2010:
QB – 11 – Donovan McNabb
RB – 38 – Clinton Portis
RB – 52 – Larry Johnson
RB – 77 – Willie Parker
WR – 19 – Santana Moss
WR – 55 – Devin Thomas
WR – 85 – Malcolm Kelly
TE – 12 – Chris Cooley
TE – 33 – Fred Davis
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