Each week I’ll be breaking down several key match-ups from an IDP perspective and analyzing the fantasy impact of the face-off. Whether the match-up means a boost in scoring opportunities for the defensive player or the potential benching of a usual scoring machine, IDP vs Star has it covered.
This week’s match-ups will focus on why Jon Abraham will struggle to have a fantasy impact in Week 6; how Sean Lee has quickly become an elite IDP option ; and why rookie Mark Barron can continue to put himself in the frame for DB1 status.
John Abraham vs. Jared Veldheer
John Abraham has long been regarded as one of the league’s top pass rushers, and deservedly so after a 13 year career. His 115 career sacks are the most for players still active in the NFL and he already has three this season. However he has refined his skillset to be a pure pass rushing machine and is utilized as such in the Falcons defensive scheme. The NFL only attributes him with ten total tackles for the season to date and he has been a notorious boom-or-bust fantasy scorer for the duration of his career, and this Sunday he could find himself sack-less, and therefore makes for a poor fantasy play.
His match-up with the Raiders O-Line is one of the least productive this season for defensive ends, as they have only conceded an average of 7.0pts per game, and nearly all of those will have come from Elvis Dumervil’s abuse of RT Willie Smith last week. Abraham will have the unenviable task of facing off against the under-rated LT Jared Veldheer (+4.4 pass blocking) who in 171 passing downs has not conceded a single sack, and only one QB hit. Grading out positively for his pass protection in all four games this year so far, Veldheer will be expected to keep Abraham at bay in Week 6 and there is every reason to believe he can. In 2011 he only allowed four sacks and three hits in 563 pass block snaps, so it is not just a rich run of form.
Summary:
When Abraham doesn't get to the QB he can post duck eggs, and twice this season he had had zero tackle days. Beware of starting him this week, it could be a long night for him. I have him buried in my rankings outside DL3 status. I’d even look to run-stopping DTs over Abraham this week.
Sean Lee vs. Baltimore Ravens
There was a lot to like about Sean Lee in his first season as a starter; he was a three-down inside linebacker, he had a high tackle frequency (11.5%), he flashed an ability to make big plays (four picks) and turn them into touchdowns (three). Even better for his owners is that he has continued on in that vein of form in 2012. Already this season he has hit double-digit solo tackles in three games, a feat he only managed once last season in Week 1, and even in a poorer three total tackle display in Week 3 against the Buccaneers he intercepted Josh Freeman to save his fantasy day. His match-up this week with the Ravens is an average one on paper (19th best for LBs), but I think it could turn out to be quite productive.
Ray Rice remains the focal point of the Ravens offense and somewhat strange play-calling in Week 1 of the season saw him only carry to rock ten times. As with any small sample size of data such as five game weeks, this can distort the numbers, so I’m willing to bump the Baltimore offense a little as a friendly match-up for LBs. I’d also factor in the use of tight-end Dennis Pitta, especially against more talented defenses as beneficial for Lee’s fantasy potential this week. Through weeks 1-3 Pitta was targeted 29 times (against the Bengals, Eagles and Patriots respectively) compared to just six times in the past two weeks against the poorer secondary’s of the Haden-less Browns and Chiefs. With Carr and Claiborne as adversaries in Week 6, Flacco should be more willing to look to his tight-end, thus providing Lee with those interception (and tackle) opportunities.
Summary:
Even more reason to believe the Ravens will gameplan against Lee and look to get to ball to Pitta is his mediocre coverage skills, having allowed 12/14 passes to be completed so far this year. Lee is my #1 LB this week and should find himself in double-digit tackles again.
Mark Barron vs Brady Quinn & Jamaal Charles
The first safety drafted in 2012, Mark Barron, has found his feet after a slow start and only three tackles on opening weekend. Since then the former Crimson Tide standout has been consistently turning out solid tackle performances, including double-digit tackles for the first time in Week 4. He’s on the field for 100% of snaps and also managed to generate pressure on two of his eight blitzes. This week he’ll face off against Kansas City which has been the 4th best match-up for opposing safeties, giving up an average of 22.3pts per game.
To make that match-up even juicier, Chiefs starting QB Matt Cassel has been confirmed as out, meaning the much maligned Brady Quinn will be taking over the reins. Before his three completed passes last week Quinn had not thrown a pass in a game since his 53.1% completion rate and seven interceptions playing for the Browns in 2009. Barron will look to take advantage of a game-rusty and arguably talent deficient Quinn this week.
It won’t be a surprise if the Chiefs want to limit their exposure to having Quinn carry the team and pass to victory, which should mean a heavy dose of the running game. That means plenty of Jamaal Charles and also Shaun Draughn, which will also be music to the ears of an in-the-box safety such as Barron. Although Charles is one of the most elusive players in the NFL, Barron has proved to be a fairly reliable tackler missing only three on the season so far, so I’m not concerned that he’ll be juked off his feet.
Summary:
I’ve ranked Barron as my DB5 this week, putting him above some serious IDP names such as Tyvon Branch, Antoine Bethea and Eric Berry. He should have plenty of tackle opportunities not to mention interceptions with Quinn throwing the pigskin.
Ross Miles is the IDP Editor and a Senior Fantasy Writer for Pro Football Focus Fantasy, as well as 2011’s most accurate IDP expert according to FantasyPros. Follow him on Twitter – @PFF_RossMiles
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