The IDP Trade Desk is a weekly column that takes a look at some the key players you need to either buy, hold, or sell.
BUY
J.J. Watt: The discrepancy between J.J. Watt and the other defensive linemen is starting to become absurd at this point. If you’re a regular visitor to the site, you’re surely aware of how distant his season grade of +28.6 is from Calias Campbell’s +13.3 mark, which is the second-highest grade for 3-4 defensive ends. Crazily enough, that discrepancy reigns true for fantasy points as well. Using the PFF scoring as a base, Watt has 73 points through four games this season, which is almost double the amount of second-place Campbell’s 43-point total. My only concern on the matter is that the message to buy him may be coming two weeks too late. If you haven’t done so yet, get Watt. Now.
Lavonte David: While the NFL’s top-scoring linebacker, Mason Foster (yes, you read that correctly), concerns owners due to not assuming a three-down role, rookie Lavonte David shows no such concerns. David has played in 94.8% of the Buccaneers snaps this season and has quietly emerged with the tenth-highest point total among linebackers through the first quarter of the season. David is the surest tackler the Buccaneers have this season, and he will see the field enough to rack-up plenty of points in tackle-heavy formats.
Cary Williams: There could be a mini “Nnamdi-effect” happening in Baltimore in wake of Lardarius Webb’s dominant 2011 season. As a result, teams are shying away from throwing in Webb’s direction (21 times), and continue to test the shaky Cary Williams, who has been targeted 31 times. That number doesn’t seem like a huge difference from Webb’s total, but it is one that only 7 cornerbacks have topped thus far compared to the 35 that have more targets than Webb. Either way, opposing quarterbacks putting Williams near the ball is always a good thing for his fantasy owners, and Williams showed how that can pay off by recording a pick-six versus the Browns in Week 4.
HOLD
Colin McCarthy: By now, McCarthy owners should have found an adequate stopgap while he continues to nurse a high ankle sprain. These injuries have a tendency to keep players out of action for a few weeks, and are notorious for having fantasy owners compulsively check injury reports as they come out. While it’s frustrating to see one of the potential top-scoring IDPs miss time, enough can’t be said about his near 100-point effort over his last eight games of 2011 as well as the necessity of keeping him stashed away on your bench.
Jason Pierre-Paul: Owners are certainly underwhelmed by 2011’s top-scoring IDP this season, but shouldn’t be at the point of worrying just yet. Pierre-Paul’s 17 pressures and pass-rushing productivity rating of 10.6 is still top-10 among 4-3 defensive ends. So while gaudy numbers haven’t yet accumulated in the sack column, there shouldn’t be tremendous cause for concern since JPP is continuing to get pressure on the quarterbacks. That’s one of the surest indications that sacks and turnovers are in his future.
DeAngelo Hall: His interception last week cemented the fourth straight double-digit game for Hall, who is continuing to give his owners something that few playmaking corners do– consistency. Owners are usually smart to sell high on players like this, but Hall may not be the unpredictable boom-or-bust like he has been in seasons past. Hall currently leads all cornerbacks in run stop percentage, and his 30 snaps from the slot indicate an expanded role for him this year. If he continues to churn out solid point totals from week to week in the form of tackles, his occasional turnovers will make him a solid CB1 for just about any team in IDP leagues.
SELL
Cliff Avril: Disappointment continues to be the theme with one of the highest-scoring defensive ends last season, but it shouldn’t be that big of a shock to anyone that those numbers haven’t transferred into 2012. Remember, Avril’s lofty season total of fantasy points was skewed immensely by two huge games where he registered 27 and 27.5 points. During the rest of that time, he never eclipsed the 13-point plateau. Sell now if you can get anything for him.
Mason Foster: I had alluded to Foster’s whopping point total earlier, and that makes it a very good time to get a good return for the often maligned Buccaneers linebacker. Owners may have held their breath after his breakout 29.5-point game in Week 2, but he has followed it with consecutive double-digit outputs. Foster still presents solid value for a LB2 or LB3, but while he’s currently in the top spot in points, now may be a good time to get great value for a two-down linebacker.
Michael Griffin: After a 31-point performance in Week 2 threw Griffin onto radar screens, not enough has happened to keep him on them. That performance came from a game that included a whopping 81 defensive snaps, and despite that total, Griffin only mustered eight points the following week with an incredible 96 snaps under his belt. Though the snaps are there, the fantasy points appear to be swaying toward the direction of his counterpart Jordan Babineaux while Griffin continues to struggle in coverage, run defense and with missed tackles. Griffin is looking more and more like a one-hit wonder this season and should be scrapped if anything can be had for him.
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