The situation with defensive ends is not unlike that with defensive tackles. As more and more teams implement 3-4 defenses (and/or 3-4 sets), it decreases the number of defensive ends who can be considered IDP assets. Indeed, 3-4 ends Darnell Dockett and Justin Smith are without question the exceptions rather than the rule; virtually every top-tier IDP option is a right (rush) end in a 4-3 defense. However, as with every position in IDP, however, you should consider all four factors when choosing which players to pursue. Here's a look at the top 20 defensive ends, along with five sleepers to watch out for…
1. Jared Allen (Minnesota Vikings): Without question the elite fantasy pass-rushing defensive end in the NFL, Allen is perfectly suited to the Vikings' defense (and he dodged a bullet by escaping Kansas City, where he'd be a poor fit as a “tweener” in the 3-4 they're now utilizing). Allen posted a very strong PFF season in 2009 (15.3 rating, 6th overall) and was particularly good on the pass rush (17.3 rating). And though he's not quite the PFF darling as Colts' bookends Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis (62.5 combined PFF rating), Allen's tackle numbers (and his ability to bat passes) makes him a much stronger fantasy asset.
2. Trent Cole (Philadelphia Eagles): Ranked third overall by PFF (27.8), Cole is a force on the pass rush and against the run, making him very valuable whether your league is tackle-heavy or big-play heavy. The addition of Brandon Graham should ultimately provide Cole with a quality bookend a la Mathis/Freeney, and if that happens, the attention Graham demands should cause Cole's production to rise even higher.
3. Julius Peppers (Chicago Bears): It's easy to speculate that Peppers (ninth-best 4-3 DE with 12.3 PFF rating) will be demotivated now that the Bears have already backed the Brink's truck up to his house. And Peppers will indeed be very well paid in 2010 ($20 million, all guaranteed). But if the Bears aren't pleased with his production, they can cut him loose after this season. It's a high price to pay for one year of Peppers, but if he delivers an elite-level performance, it can play a huge role in determining the Bears' fortunes (just as, on the other side of the ball, it's all about the Cutler/Martz marriage). Look for Peppers to play well in order to guarantee that he keeps getting paid elite-level money, because if he falters, another contract like the one the Bears bestowed upon him won't be forthcoming.
4. Justin Tuck (New York Giants): Tuck (13.9 rating) put together a strong season despite playing in front of an absolutely decimated secondary. If things improve on that front, opposing QBs will have to look harder for open receivers, and Tuck's sack totals could fly through the roof. As it was, he managed to put together an elite-level IDP season in 2009 despite amassing only seven sacks. If all the other numbers remain the same and the Giants' pass defense improves, look for Tuck to double his sack total in 2010.
5. Mario Williams (Houston Texans): As the Texans' defense continues to improve around him, “Super Mario” will get more and more opportunities to get to the opposing quarterback. His sack and tackle totals were solid in 2009 despite him having to battle through some nagging injuries, and he managed to finish with PFF's eighth-highest DE ranking. If he's back to full strength for 2010, look for Williams to rebound with a huge season.
6. Dwight Freeney (Indianapolis Colts): PFF's highest-rated defensive end in 2009, Freeney is actually a little better at getting to the opposing QB than Allen. His 41 quarterback pressures led all NFL defensive ends in 2009, and his 32.9 pass-rush rating put him in first by a meaningful margin (teammate Robert Mathis was second with a 26.0 rating). Both Freeney (30 years old) and Mathis (29 years old) still have plenty of good football ahead of them, but it bears watching to see whether first round pick Jerry Hughes starts to steal snaps. [Important Note: Avoid Freeney in tackle-heavy leagues, his sack total is without question his primary value in IDP.]
7. Will Smith (New Orleans Saints): Far from a PFF darling, Smith posted an atrocious -11.2 rating in 2009, largely because his play against the run was awful (-16.0). However, his ability to get to the quarterback (12 sacks) and his set-in-stone place at the right end position in the Saints' big-play defense makes him a very safe fantasy play. That said, if Smith's play against the run doesn't improve in 2010, don't be surprised if the Saints draft his replacement next April.
8. Justin Smith (San Francisco 49ers): Though he plays end in a 3-4 defense, Smith's tremendous pass-rushing skills (a monstrous 31.8 rating) and his solid play against the run (7.2 rating) make him a force to be reckoned with. In face, Smith's pass-rush rating is second-highest behind only Freeney, an exceptional point to consider given how well-rounded Smith is (in sharp contrast to the uni-directional Freeney). Much noise has been made about the importance of nose tackle Aubrayo Franklin (who's sitting out waiting to sign his franchise tender), but judging from the results, it appears to be Smith who's the key to the 49ers' strong line play. And as all IDP owners know, the 49ers' strong line play is a key reason why inside linebacker Patrick Willis is consistently kept “clean” to rack up massive tackle numbers.
9. Terrell Suggs (Baltimore Ravens): The inverse of Will Smith, Suggs isn't great on the pass rush (despite playing “rush” end/OLB in a defense), but his play against the run makes him a very valuable fantasy asset. His 37 tackles had him near the top of the leaderboard amongst 4-3 DE's, and he managed to accumulate those numbers despite missing three full games due to injury. If Suggs can remain healthy and improve a bit on the pass rush, he can put up elite-level fantasy DL numbers.
10. Calais Campbell (Arizona Cardinals): While 3-4 bookend Darnell Dockett has gotten the lion's share of the attention for his public showering, Campbell has quietly emerged as one of the best young defensive linemen in the NFL. He was the fourth-best 3-4 DE (13.8 PFF rating) and was second-best on the pass rush (17.3). If he can improve his play against the run and keep putting pressure on the quarterback, Campbell could well be a top-five defensive end in 2011, no small feat for a 3-4 defensive end.
11. Ray Edwards (Minnesota Vikings)
12. Robert Mathis (Indianapolis Colts)
13. John Abraham (Atlanta Falcons)
14. Stylez G. White (Tampa Bay Buccaneers)
15. Darnell Dockett (Arizona Cardinals)
16. Antwan Odom (Cincinnati Bengals)
17. Shaun Ellis (New York Jets)
18. Andre Carter (Washington Redskins)*
19. Richard Seymour (Oakland Raiders)
20. Osi Umenyiora (New York Giants)
* Moving to OLB in 3-4 Defense, but might retain DE eligibility
SLEEPERS TO CONSIDER
1. Kroy Biermann (Atlanta Falcons): Biermann was extremely effective in 2009 despite playing fewer than half the Falcons' defensive snaps, and his play in the 2010 preseason (a sack and forced fumble in each game) indicates that he's ready to take another huge step forward. There's an open spot across for John Abraham (Jamaal Anderson has been a bust), and it's clear that the Falcons' defense would be far better with Biermann taking as many of Anderson's snaps as possible. Assuming his positive trajectory continues, Biermann will be a top-10 DE when we do next year's rankings.
2. Charles Johnson (Carolina Panthers): Johnson played fairly well last season in limited snaps as a left-end and as a back-up to Peppers. Now that Peppers has relocated to Chicago, Johnson will get first crack at the starting right end job. If he can thrive there, the sack and tackle numbers should be very strong. It's unlikely that Johnson will rise to top-10 status in 2011, but he certainly has the potential to be a top-20 option.
3. Victor Abiamiri (Philadelphia Eagles): Abiamiri's problem isn't his ability to play so much as his ability to remain healthy enough to play. He's missed a considerable amount of time due to injury, and with first round pick Brandon Graham in the fold, Abiamiri is running out of time. But his production in the limited time he's seen the field has been quite good, and if he's able to remain healthy in 2010, he could put up very solid fantasy numbers.
4. Matt Shaughnessy (Oakland Raiders): Much like Biermann, Shaughnessy has performed well in limited time. And like Biermann, he's played well in the preseason (two sacks against the Cowboys last week). If he can keep up the strong play, he'll be a top-20 defensive end in 2010. And if the addition of Rolando McClain has the anticipated effect on the Raiders' defense as a whole, things could start to get really interesting for the Silver and Black.
5. Derrick Harvey (Jacksonville Jaguars): Harvey has been a huge disappointment thus far, but the talented third-year defensive end has shown glimpses of promise. The third year is historically charmed for wide receivers… will it be so for Harvey as well? The key will be his pass-rushing, for his play against the run is strong. If Harvey can start to demonstrate the pass-rushing prowess that caused the Jags to draft him eighth overall in 2008, he might just develop into the star that everyone's been waiting for.
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