Holding the Edge: Patriots Offense vs. Giants Defense

Following Sam Monson's piece from yesterday, PFF Analyst Ben Stockwell takes another look at how the Super Bowl teams match up in critical aspects of the game.

His task: compare the Patriots' offensive strengths and weaknesses to those of the Giants' defense. His table below breaks down how they've looked so far this season and which team should have the edge in each area when Sunday comes. One of these games-within-the-game will decide the outcome. Which will it be?

Patriots Offense	Position Group	Giants Defense
Everything about the New England Patriots' ground game is creating balance. The passing game carries the load and the running game is there to keep defenses honest and exploit gaps that defenses leave if they over commit, as they showed so well against the Baltimore Ravens in the conference title game. However, the Patriots' offense only earned 3.6 yards per carry between the guards in the regular season and only 3.2 there so far in the postseason. The Patriots' most successful inside run is a power play off guard, but this is not an area they can lean on as a core part of the offense.	Interior Running	The New York Giants may lack a dominant defender in the middle of their defensive line, but what they do have is a group of capable defensive tackles and strong downhill linebackers who ensure that the heart of their defense isn’t a weakness for opponents to attack. The Giants' interior run defense is no better than average, on rushes between the guards, they yielded 3.9 yards per carry–bang on the league average–and on rushes off-guard they were also around the league’s average mark, yielding 4.5 yards per carry. The Giants have raised their game in the playoffs yielding 3.2 yards per carry between the guards and they will need to maintain that while diverting their attention to areas that the Patriots are more likely to target.
Statistically, the Patriots rushing offense to the outside is around the league average in almost every category. They ran the ball 183 times off end or tackle in the regular season compared to a league average of 185 and gained 4.7 yards per carry on those rushes compared to a league average of 4.4 yards. Unlike the interior run game (which needs to be no more than a foil), the Patriots look to work the edges but lack the great threat to truly challenge defenses there. The Patriots’ longest rush off end all season long was a sub-par 25-yard run by Stevan Ridley; prime ball carrier BenJarvus Green-Ellis had no rush longer than 14 yards off end all season. If the Patriots cannot force the Giants’ defense to back off with the pass, they will be in for a long hard grind to do the work on the ground.	Outside Running	Many areas of the Giants' defense have not seen their talent level match their statistical output, but the results in the pinch have been crucial. As with their interior run D, the Giants were no better than average defending runs to the outside in the regular season. They gave up 4.3 yards per carry on rushes off tackle (league average of 4.4) and off end they gave up 5.0 yards per carry to a league average of 4.5 yards. Come playoff time, the Giants’ D has upped its game, though, and is yielding only just north of 3 yards per carry off tackle and just north of 4 per carry off end. The worry that remains, in spite of a strong postseason of run defense, is that the Giants gave up eight touchdowns off end in the regular season.
Tom Brady attempted 333 passes aimed between the line of scrimmage and 10 yards downfield during the regular season, completing 250 of those passes and turning the ball over only twice with interceptions. This is the bread and butter of the Patriot offense and it's what makes them tick with the likes of Hernandez and Welker picking up yards after the catch. Those yards after the catch are what will kill the Giants' defense and the timing of the Patriot offense hitting those receivers in stride and on time will be pivotal.	Short Passing	As with the rest of the Giant defense, another area of being in line with the league average and nothing more. They lack of a linebacker of any true quality in coverage with only Chase Blackburn grading above average in that department. Antrel Rolle will be heavily tested in this area working from the slot if he's isolated in man coverage; that's not a favorable matchup for the Giants. The Giants yielded 12 passing touchdowns on short throws in the regular season; Brady threw for 14 touchdowns on such passes.
At its best, the Patriots' passing game absolutely controls the middle of the field. There are simply too many short area threats for you to cover, and in this area Rob Gronkowski is the main threat … his health will determine whether the Patriots maintain their control over this area. Tom Brady threw more touchdowns (13) on passes aimed 10-19 yards downfield and between the numbers than he threw in any other “quadrant” of the field. If Gronkowski is limited, the Patriots will lose the most deadly part of their offense and the area that is the greatest threat to the Giants’ defense.	Intermediate Passing	On intermediate throws, the Giants allowed completions on an alarming 60% of passes during the regular season and conceded seven passing touchdowns to only five takeaways. This area of the field for the Giants is dependent upon two things, the health of Rob Gronkowski and the ability of their defensive line to get pressure from a four-man rush. If they are forced into sending the blitz too frequently, they leave an already weak area of their defense exposed. The Giants did at least force four interceptions on intermediate throws between the numbers, Brady’s “hot zone”, two from Brady himself. A repeat performance will be essential for the Giants.
The Patriots have–since Randy Moss’ demise and eventual trade–lacked a deep threat, but their ability to pepper the short area of the field still allows them to take shots down the field with so-called inferior athletes when the play is set up. On passes aimed more than 20 yards down the field this season, Brady has completed only 20-of-60 passes, but he has collected nine touchdowns on those 20 completions and has turned the ball over only twice. At only 10.2% if his aimed passes, this is not a crucial area of the Patriots offense, but it as an area that the can exploit with physicality if not speed when the Giants attempt to clog the short and intermediate zones where the Patriots hold the edge.	Deep Passing	The Giants were not only efficient defending the deep pass–yielding just 25 completions on 67 attempts during the regular season–but they also collected more than their share of turnovers. The Giants intercepted 11 of the 67 passes that they faced that were aimed more than 20 yards downfield during the regular season, while giving up only seven touchdowns. If big plays were there to be made in the regular season, it was Giant defensive backs that came up with them. That, however, has been reversed in the postseason with the Giants giving up three touchdowns on passes aimed more than 20 yards downfield in the last two games. The Giants cannot afford similar mental lapses to those that they suffered in San Francisco.

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