A new head coach. A new defensive scheme. But no new quarterback.
In a division loaded with talent, the Bills can look on longingly while their own roster starts to take shape. There are, however, some diamonds that emerged from a rough 2009. While they won't scare their AFC East rivals, who's to say they can't cause a surprise or two along the way …
THE GOOD NEWS
1. The overlooked and underrated.
Questions abound over the suitability of the Bills' defense to operate a 3-4 scheme but one area they appear well covered is at inside linebacker. On the evidence of 2009 they have a terrific combination in the shape of Paul Posluszny and Andra Davis, both of whom finished in our top six rankings for inside linebackers.
Posluszny had a strong all-around season in Orchard Park (and Toronto) with the Bills, displaying a decent timing of the blitz. But he made his mark with his tenacious run defense and ability to drop into coverage. A sure tackler (he only missed 6 in 2009), he was one of a handful of Bills defenders to come out with a positive run-defense rating (+5.6 being the highest). He also excelled in coverage, where he didn't allow a touchdown and picked up 3 interceptions.
His adjustment to the 3-4 should be made easier by the presence of Davis, a guy who ranked fifth overall thanks in large part to the excellent work he did stuffing the run (+13.0 rating in this regard) on first and second down. Despite not seeing the field in obvious passing situations, he showed an excellent knack for blitzing, generating 13 total pressures on just 74 pass rushes. With concerns over where the pass rush will come from, it's reassuring that their middle linebackers can blitz well without it hampering their game.
Davis is likely to see competition from the likes of Kawika Mitchell and Keith Ellison. But if he can show the sort of destructive ability crashing the A-gaps — particularly as he did for the Broncos last year — he should have no trouble winning that battle and forming what could be an unheralded but productive partnership with Posluszny.
2. Strength in numbers … well, sort of.
We were a little bit surprised when the Bills selected C.J. Spiller in April's draft. He joins a backfield crowded with our fifth-ranked rushing running back, Fred Jackson, and a guy who despite his troubles is only a year removed from finishing fourth in the same stakes in (Marshawn Lynch). Conclusion — the Bills have a talented backfield. Of course, now Lynch and Jackson are injured for the remainder of the preseason, and all hell hath broken loose.
Still, assuming a return to health, there's talent. Jackson is the particular highlight. A woeful pass protector, get him ball in his hands and he just makes things happen. Stuck behind a Bills line that wasn't, isn't and doesn't look like it's any good, Jackson forced 38 missed tackles and finished the season with a very healthy 3.0 yards after contact per carry.
As a receiver he was just as effective, finishing with a +6.8 rating. That was good enough for second overall out of the running backs. It will be interesting to see how the Bills use Spiller, but with Jackson and Lynch already proven commodities the Bills don't need to worry about him being a conventional back.
THE BAD NEWS
1. An ugly passage of change.
When you look at the most successful 3-4 units, they all get pressure from their outside linebackers. So with the Bills running the 3-4, we ask who on their roster is going to bring pressure from the outside? The penciled-in starters are Chris Kelsay and Reggie Torbor, with Aaron Maybin likely to factor in — hardly a trio that inspires confidence that the Bills are going to get after the quarterback.
Kelsay finished third from last in our defensive end rankings, so we're not sure just how exactly the transition to outside linebacker will go for a man that picked up 34 total pressures on a huge 471 pass-rushing attempts. On the other side, it's interesting to see Torbor start at outside linebacker. Last year he managed a healthy 340 snaps but the overwhelming majority came at inside linebacker and he was hardly dynamic when rushing the passer (-2.5 rating).
What this says for Maybin is anyone's guess. Invisible even when he did get on the field (just 5 total pressures from 130 pass rushes) and failing to lock down a starting spot with such weak competition, he's not looking like the player the Bills thought they had drafted. Denver looked in nearly as bad shape heading into the 2009 season but Elvis Dumervil stepped up — is there anyone on the Bills' roster capable of doing the same?
2. A quarterback in need of protection.
After a terrible year from their offensive line in 2009, the Bills have done precisely nothing to improve except for hope last year's rookies improve and pray for the best. Symptomatic of their problems was a whopping 49 penalties given up — making the move to bring in Cornell Green and his 13 penalties all the more peculiar.
Even on plays where the Bills' blockers didn't concede penalties, they struggled mightily both in pass protection and as run-blockers — this was personified by Demetrius Bell. Bell only managed 472 snaps but managed to give up 30 pressures and blow 23 run-blocking plays. That there seems little competition for his spot should be a huge worry and doesn't bode well for whoever lands the quarterback spot.
The relative bright spot comes with a disclaimer. Although Eric Wood showed he was capable in both run (0.2 rating) and pass blocking (-1.4), his season ended with the type of injury that always makes you wonder how he'll recover. He'll need to be at his best, and Andy Levitre will have to step up for this unit to succeed. Even then, with so many holes (including our worst-ranked pass-protecting center) it's hard to see this unit functioning all that well. If Bills fans want to take solace, it's that stranger things have happened.
OUTLOOK
Buffalo is a team largely devoid of talent and desperately seeking an identity to push forwards. Chan Gailey has a track record of forging a unique identity for his teams to fit the personnel, but it hasn't necessarily translated into victories and there's not much about this Bills side to suggest things will be any different. The defense has some potential and you get the impression we'll see plenty of it with a sputtering offense, but this year is about getting the right pieces in places rather than challenging the powerhouses of the AFC East.
Target: 4-12
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