Giants-Patriots Monday Night Football Week 13 Preview: Odds, lines, best bets

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New York Giants vs. New England Patriots (-7) [Total: 46.5]

Game Overview

With just five games to go down the stretch, the New England Patriots pace the entire NFL with a 10-2 record, eyeing the AFC’s No.1 seed. With an 8-4 mark against the spread, the Patriots also stand as one of the most profitable teams to bet on this season. However, there have been some cracks at home this season, covering just 50% of their games in Foxborough. 

While Drake Maye has been heavily praised — deservingly so — the New England defense deserves ample credit for its contributions to this team’s success. Issues in coverage hampered this team early in the year, but that has since become another strength. Since Week 7, the Patriots rank second in the NFL in EPA per play allowed, above even some high-powered units in the Los Angeles Rams and Houston Texans. 

For the Giants, the goal is to build momentum down the stretch and create a foundation for next season. Still, expect this team to remain competitive in betting markets, as they have all season behind a 7-5 ATS record — having covered three straight matchups. 

Jaxson Dart has shown flashes of that talent that compelled the Giants to trade up into the first round to select him. But, that ability still has some ways to go before he can consistently find production as the starter.

Without numerous key weapons missing from the lineup, it’s not only understandable, but expected that there would be some difficulties to generate offensive production. Building his blueprint now can go a long way for his outlook in 2026, and it’s games like this down the stretch that shape the future. 

Giants Quarterbacks' 2025 Statistics

TE Theo Johnson, New York Giants: Over 3.5 receptions (+125)

With Jaxson Dart back in the lineup, the Giants can refocus on building the growing chemistry between the young quarterback and his weapons. The Dart-Johnson connection was hitting its stride just before Dart went down midway through Week 10, with the pair connecting on six passes in the first half. 

This matchup with New England profiles as a positive one for Johnson to rack up significant volume. The Patriots’ defense has struggled to limit tight ends this season, surrendering the sixth-most receptions to the position. The Patriots have allowed eight tight ends to surpass this mark in their last six games, including a pair of contests in which multiple tight ends hit the over. 

To further help push volume into Johnson’s grasp, consider that the Patriots’ defense is stout against the run — which has funneled opposing offenses to attack through the air at a top-five rate in the NFL. With New England favored by a touchdown at home, it’s likely that the Giants will need to throw to keep pace.