At its most desperate points, the first round of the NFL draft is a must-win situation. For teams with fewer questions to answer, it’s still a critical opportunity to add talent. Hits are expected. Misses are remembered for years.
With so much of the pre-draft scrutiny focused on the players who will potentially become known as ‘first-rounders’, it’s worth a full look at those players who’ve gone before – if, for nothing else, a glimpse of what can really be expected from this year’s crop.
I’ve taken the 159 first-round picks from the past five years and run them through a gauntlet of measures: checking their snap contribution, their PFF grades in key facets of play, their performance in select Signature Stats and other surrounding factors related to the value they’ve shown relative to their draft slot. Boiling all of that down to a broad strokes, pass/fail (and yes, oversimplified in many cases) ‘Hit’ or ‘Miss’ mark for each player, we have a look at what the draft’s premier picks have produced.
First Round Expectations
Imagine yourself as an NFL GM holding a first round pick in the upcoming draft. What do you want from it? Ideally, a future Hall of Famer. Realistically, a top-level starter for multiple seasons. You want immediate impact as well, but understand an acclimation period may be part of the deal.
If that pick of yours is in the Top 10, you’ll have access to cream of the crop – and your team is probably in dire need of that kind of talent infusion. A selection in the next 10 spots (11-20) means your team is in a little better shape, but was not in the playoffs the previous year and almost certainly has specific needs to address. If you find yourself picking in the bottom third of the round, you’re probably in better shape roster-wise and can afford to take more chances, but can’t settle for impact diverted too far down the line – you are, after all, looking to make a near-term Super Bowl run with this team.
With the round split into thirds like this, greater expectations are placed on those Top 10 selections than the 21-32 range, but bottom line – and this is all very bottom line – they’re all first-rounders and are all expected to be significant additions sooner than later.
Hits and Misses
Working with ‘top-level starter’ as the goal, the majority of players considered here were relatively easy to sift into the hit or miss columns. Where it gets to be less clear is in the cases of progressing, declining, or up-and-down trends. A player like Duane Brown has seen his share of snaps each year and climbed from a rather disappointing first season to string together a number of improving-to-outstanding campaigns. Being a 26th overall pick, the pressure on him wasn’t as great to succeed immediately as it might have been had he gone earlier in the draft, so even that rough first year weighs less on his record, making those strong years further on more of the focus.
Some were up at the outset and down as they went (way down, in Jeff Otah’s case) and some have bounced back from fall-offs (see Devin McCourty’s 2010-2011-2012 span). In these cases, the benefit of the doubt was applied and recent trends won out.
Once reviewed, the hard line of hit or miss was applied and a tag was given to each player. There’s room for argument with some — the gray area can be vast — but “he has shown something and might eventually turn out to be a hit” is tough to fit as a column header.
With that, we look first at the most recent first-rounders.
Doing The Unthinkable
I’ve broken the Golden Rule of post-draft analysis by applying judgment to players not yet three years into the league. Softening the harsh edge by marking the 2011 and 2012 draftees as “early” hits or misses is my compromise. Their hit/miss status may very well change in time, but for now, we go with what we know and allow just these two classes a middle mark either leaning toward hit or toward miss if that fits them best.
Among those marked as ‘early hits’ in this group, some have left little doubt. A.J. Green and Julio Jones have stepped in and proven themselves worthy of their draft slots with immediate impacts. Tyron Smith excelled as a rookie on the right and managed a switch to the left in his second season. Mike Pouncey and Nate Solder have built on solid first years to produce even better sophomore seasons. Robert Griffin, Kevin Zeitler, and Doug Martin all excelled in their debuts.
On the defensive side, J.J. Watt, Von Miller, and Muhammad Wilkerson are shoe-ins, Nick Fairley leapt up in his second season, as did Patrick Peterson. Harrison Smith flashed cover ability as a rookie and Luke Kuechly settled in after a move to the middle.
The misses (yes, ‘early misses’) are attached to players who’ve failed to show they can match their draft slot assumptions (Blaine Gabbert, Jake Locker), were not called upon to contribute off the bat (A.J. Jenkins, David Wilson), or fell to injury early on (David Decastro, Dre Kirkpatrick). No matter the reasoning – and granted, some are situation-based or otherwise beyond control – these first-rounders are losing out to expectations as their careers get going.
* You can find the list as part of the final table at the bottom of the page.
Positional Trends
Of particular interest given the projections for the first round of the 2013 draft, offensive tackles have proven to be some of the safest selections in recent years with 22 taken and 16 being handed hit status. Seven of the eight selected in the Top 10 are panning out — the lone Top-10 tackle miss: Baylor’s Jason Smith going to the Rams in 2009.
The offensive tackle tally accounts for the hit/miss edge we’ve seen overall. The remaining positions contribute to a straight 50-50 split. The following table breaks down the hits and misses in each third of the round (Picks 1-10, etc.) and provides totals per position — these include the early hits and misses from the 2011 and 2012 classes. Note the interior defender splits in each section of the round as we head into a draft with a number of players set to play there in the NFL.
[table id=827 /]
Particular positional draft classes also sort out as notable examples of the hit-and-miss nature of first round drafting. As a pair to point to, the 2008 offensive tackle group and the receivers taken in 2009:
Of the eight first-round tackles from 2008, five have earned hit tags including Branden Albert, whom we’re sure to hear more of in the coming hours. Jake Long and Gosder Cherilus have recently moved on from their original teams. Ryan Clady is sitting on the Franchise Tag while waiting for the pay day the Duane Brown got last year. Even Sam Baker, who has come on of late, secured a sizable second contract. With Jeff Otah falling out of the league and Chris Williams moving inside to guard, this class had some mixed bag elements but was still largely a hit as a whole.
[table id=829 /]
The receiver group selected in the 2009 draft shows the range of possibilities: Darrius Heyward-Bey, a Top-10 miss; Hakeem Nicks, a bottom-of-the-round hit; Jermey Maclin a mild miss from the middle; Michel Crabtree, a late-blooming Top-10 hit; Kenny Britt, a frustrating up-and-down hit; and Percy Harvin a standout from the start. An interesting set that says something for not racing for receiving talent at the top.
[table id=830 /]
Team Success
If I were to ask most anyone to guess which teams, if any, logged all-hit or all-miss records during this span of drafts, I’d expect to get some Patriots and Raiders responses, respectively. As the table below shows, those answers would be in line with what was found. What might not be expected is seeing the Redskins join New England as an all-hit team and the Bears grabbing a seat next to Oakland on the hitless bench.
In all, a 53 percent hit rate with 47 of the more established players and 38 youngsters landing in the hit and early hit columns. Not an especially encouraging number, but one that reinforces the notion that so much of the draft – even at the top – is a crapshoot despite the time dedicated to limiting risk.
[table id=828 /]
How will teams do this year? We’re about to find out – well, at least we’ll get the process started and get on the road to knowing more a few years down the line. For now, the five-year list of hits and misses… check out the influx from each college, too — Alabama's recent contribution sets them above USC and Oklahoma in terms of the numbers of players coming in.
For further commentary on past picks, check out Khaled's Draft Grader series and Neil's summary with additional thoughts.
(table showing 25 rows at a time, click headers to sort, *='early' hit or miss)
[table id=831 /]
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