Fantasy: Week 16 Offensive Matchups

Welcome to the Week 16 edition of the Offensive Matchup Report.

Down below, you’ll find upgrades and downgrades at each of the primary fantasy football positions. After the player analysis, you’ll find that player’s ranking and projection for this weekend.

QB UPGRADE

Redskins Rex Grossman vs. Vikings

Since the opening kickoff of their Week 6 game against Chicago, the Vikings have allowed 25 passing touchdowns while failing to intercept a single pass over the nine game period. Eight of the nine quarterbacks they faced managed more than one passing score (Five put up 3+) and the one who didn’t had a rushing score. Over the nine game span, quarterbacks are averaging 272 passing yards/game and only one has failed to reach the 200 yard mark. Grossman should be in line for a big game.

Projection: 22-of-34, 261 yards, 1.6 TD, 1.0 INT
Ranking: QB # 14

Others: John Skelton, Matt Moore

QB DOWNGRADE

Steelers Ben Roethlisberger (or Charlie Batch) vs. Rams

The Rams have done a nice job against the opposing quarterback recently, if only as a product of opponents running the ball more against them while playing with a league. Still, they’ve allowed only eight passing scores over their last nine games – an impressive feat. Only one of the last seven quarterbacks to take them on managed more than 225 passing yards. They even slowed Drew Brees to 269 yards, 1 TD, and 2 INT on 44 attempts back in Week 8. Regardless of who is under center for the Steelers this weekend, it will be a slow Fantasy day.

Projection: 21-of-34, 269 yards, 1.3 TD, 0.9 INT
Ranking: QB # 18

Others: Philip Rivers, Matt Hasselbeck

RB UPGRADE

Broncos Willis McGahee vs. Bills

Teams are running the ball early and often against the Bills and they haven’t been able to slow the attacks. Seven straight RB units have reached 84+ yards and six of the seven were over 100 yards. Only the Jets’ backs in Week 12 failed to score a touchdown. Last week, Reggie Bush and the Dolphins’ running backs put up 248 yards and a score on 36 carries. In fact, Since Week 6 (a nine game period), seven opposing RB units have recorded 29 or more carries. The Broncos love to run the ball and they have a fine matchup for it this week. McGahee will lead the way.

Projection: 22 carries, 109 yards, 0.7 TD
PPR Ranking: RB # 13

Others: Jonathan Stewart, LeGarrette Blount

RB DOWNGRADE

Saints Darren Sproles vs. Falcons

The Falcons have done a nice job slowing opposing rushing attacks this season, despite allowing three straight 100-yard games to backs. Of course, those last three opponents happened to be the Texans, Panthers, and Jaguars, all of which support strong running games. In fact, prior to those three games, no set of backs had reached the 100-yard mark since the Panthers did it in Week 6. The Falcons’ defense has allowed seven scores on the ground this year and only five since Week 3. Sproles is highlighted here (as opposed to Ingram/Thomas/Ivory) because Atlanta also does a nice job slowing backs in the passing game, as well. Since allowing three 50+ receiving yard games to RB units over their first four games, none have eclipsed 50 yards since. Back in Week 10, Drew Brees targeted the running back 12 times. 10 were caught, but for only 26 yards. They’ll have their eyes on Sproles again this weekend.

Projection: 4 carries, 21 yards, 5 receptions, 34 yards, 0.3 Total TD
PPR Ranking: RB # 28

Others: BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Marshawn Lynch

WR UPGRADE

Dolphins Brandon Marshall vs. Patriots

Another week, another poor performance by the Patriots secondary, which has already required the use of a pair of wide receivers. The run-heavy Broncos provided a chance for the secondary to get some rest in Week 15. They got a little with Tim Tebow attempting only 16 passes to the wide receivers, but nine were caught for 153 yards. Nine of the 14 WR units that the Patriots faced this season have eclipsed 200 receiving yards. They’ve allowed only nine touchdowns to opposing wideouts since Week 6, but the Fantasy points still flow in thanks to a ton of targets and plenty of yardage.

Projection: 10 targets, 6 receptions, 91 yards, 0.4 TD
PPR Ranking: WR # 3

Others: Larry Fitzgerald, Miles Austin, Steve Breaston, Plaxico Burress

WR DOWNGRADE

Giants Hakeem Nicks vs. Jets

Earlier this week, Hakeem Nicks suggested that offenses just aren’t that afraid of Darrelle Revis anymore. He’ll get an opportunity to make his case this weekend. Although we can’t say for sure that Revis will be following Nicks all over the field, the odds are in favor of it. Revis covers the X or Z receiver 81% of the time. Meanwhile, Nicks lines up out wide 97% of the time. Considering that Revis spends about equal time on both sides of the field, it’s fair to say that Coach Ryan could easily have him follow Nicks wherever he goes. The Jets pass defense – highlighted by Revis – has allowed only nine touchdowns to wide receivers on the season, which includes a Ryan Fitzpatrick 3-TD game back in Week 12. They aren’t dominant in the yardage department, but they do make it tough to complete passes and keep the scoring down. Nicks will have his hands full.

Projection: 8 targets, 4 receptions, 66 yards, 0.5 TD
PPR Ranking: WR # 19

Others: Reggie Wayne, Anquan Boldin, Demaryius Thomas, Denarius Moore

TE UPGRADE

Dolphins Anthony Fasano vs. Patriots

Over their last two games, the Patriots have allowed 0 receptions on 0 targets to the tight end. So why are they still a plus matchup for Fasano? Take a deeper look. New England’s last two opponents were the Fred Davis-less Redskins and the Tim Tebow-led Broncos. Washington chose to go more WR-heavy without Davis and used the tight ends only as blockers, while Tebow almost never throws to the tight end. Those games are flukes. Instead, check their previous seven games against the position. They allowed five games of 6+ receptions and 60+ yards four times. As is the case at wideout, they do a nice job keeping scoring down, but teams love to throw the ball against New England and they do it well. Often times, it means an extra catch or two for the tight end.

Projection: 4 targets, 3 receptions, 37 yards, 0.4 TD
PPR Ranking: TE # 16

Others: Kyle Rudolph

TE DOWNGRADE

Steelers Heath Miller vs. Rams

Last week, our TE Downgrade also took on the Rams. It was Jermaine Gresham and he joined up with Colin Cochart to catch four of six targets for only 22 yards. The Rams continue to own the tight end, allowing one touchdown to the position on the year. The Ravens’ tight ends put up 51 yards on 9 targets back in Week 3. That’s the most the St. Louis defense has allowed to the position this season. They’ve held a whopping 12 of the 14 units they’ve faced under 40 yards.

Projection: 5 targets, 3 receptions, 32 yards, 0.1 TD
PPR Ranking: TE # 22

Others: Jason Witten, Jared Cook, Greg Olsen

*This week's Over/Average charts include only data from Week 6 through Week 15 so we can project based on more recent performance.

Follow PFF Fantasy Managing Editor Mike Clay on Twitter at @PFF_MikeClay