Fantasy: Week 13 Offensive Matchups

Welcome to the Week 13 edition of the Offensive Matchup Report.

Down below, you’ll find upgrades and downgrades at each of the primary fantasy football positions. After the player analysis, you’ll find that player’s ranking and projection for this weekend.

QB UPGRADE

Dolphins Matt Moore vs. Raiders

The Raiders defense has allowed two or more passing touchdowns in nine of their last 10 games (dating back to Week 2). The only exception came against the Chiefs back in Week 7, when they held Matt Cassel to zero. Opponents have now thrown 20 touchdowns against them. Opposing quarterbacks have also hit the 250 yard mark six times this season. On the other hand, the Raiders defense has six interceptions over their last two games and 16 sacks over their last three. Yardage shouldn’t be too hard to come by and a pair of touchdowns is possible for Moore this weekend, making him a solid QB2 option.

Projection: 20-of-34, 236 yards, 1.3 TD, 0.9 INT
Ranking: QB #  17

Others: Christian Ponder, Kevin Kolb

QB DOWNGRADE

Chargers Philip Rivers vs. Jaguars

Partly because teams don’t need to throw against them much this year, the Jaguars defense has held opposing quarterbacks to underwhelming fantasy numbers. Since allowing exactly two passing scores three times over the season’s first five weeks, they’ve allowed five total and no more than one in a single game. Only four teams have eclipsed 200 yards passing against them this season and they’ve racked up 25 sacks. Aside of a 351 yard game by Drew Brees in Week 4, the most yardage they’ve surrendered in a single game is 263 (Titans in Week 1). Unless he finds the endzone a few times early on or the Chargers fall behind, Rivers will be hard-pressed to find fantasy points.

Projection: 22-of-34, 257 yards, 1.4 TD, 1.3 INT
Ranking: QB # 18

Others: Drew Brees, Matt Ryan, Alex Smith

RB UPGRADE

Bucs LeGarrette Blount vs. Panthers

The Panthers continue to find themselves in this article because they continue to struggle vs. the run. The Colts’ running backs went for 103 yards and a score on just 21 carries in Week 12. Carolina has now allowed 100+ rushing yards to running backs 10 times in 11 games and no fewer than 82 yards (Redskins, Week 7). Backs have scored 12 times on the ground in 11 games this season. The Panthers’ defense has allowed allowed five receiving scores to running backs since Week 5.

Projection: 16 carries, 79 yards, 1 reception, 11 yards, 0.8 Total TD
PPR Ranking: RB # 18

Others: BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Frank Gore

RB DOWNGRADE

Rams Steven Jackson vs. 49ers

On the other end of the spectrum, we have the impenetrable 49ers run defense. They allowed a season-high 90 rushing yards to the Ravens’ running backs in Week 12, but it was on 29 carries (3.1 YPC). LeSean McCoy’s touchdown catch against them back in Week 4 is the only touchdown they’ve allowed to a running back this season. Opposing running back units are averaging 62 rushing yards on 18 carries (3.4) against them this season.

Projection: 19 carries, 80 yards, 3 receptions, 19 yards, 0.3 Total TD
PPR Ranking: RB # 17

Others: Roy Helu, Peyton Hillis

WR UPGRADE

Colts Reggie Wayne vs. Patriots

Although they only caught half of the passes thrown their way, the Eagles beat-up wide receiver unit went for 270 yards and a score on 16 receptions in Week 12. The Patriots defense has now allowed 200+ yards to wide receivers seven times this season and one or more touchdowns nine times. Wide Receivers now have 2,350 yards and 11 scores on 163 receptions against New England this season.

Projection: 10 targets, 6 receptions, 79 yards, 0.2 TD
PPR Ranking: WR # 16

Others: Pierre Garcon, Titus Young

WR DOWNGRADE

Ravens Anquan Boldin vs. Browns

The Bengals’ wide receivers racked up 176 receiving yards on just 10 receptions (14 targets) against the Browns last week…but that’s a terrible game for the Cleveland defense when you consider their dominance against wideouts this year. WR units have hit the 100-yard mark just five times (including the last two weeks, however) and have combined for only four touchdowns (and none since Week 10) on the season. WR units have combined for 10 or fewer receptions in nine games this season vs. Cleveland.

Projection: 6 targets, 3 receptions, 47 yards, 0.2 TD
PPR Ranking: WR # 46

Others: Vincent Jackson, Marques Colston, Santana Moss

TE UPGRADE

Colts Jacob Tamme vs. Patriots

Although they haven’t given up many explosive games, the Patriots have quietly struggled against the tight end this season. They’ve allowed 60+ yards six times and are fresh off a game where they allowed six receptions and 100 yards to Brent Celek/Clay Harbor on only seven targets. Over the last five weeks, their opponent has thrown to the tight end seven times twice and 10 times twice. They’ve only allowed three scores to tight ends, but the only “elite” Fantasy tight ends they’ve faced are Antonio Gates (Week 2) and Jason Witten (Week 6). The Colts will throw the ball a ton this week and Tamme will be third in line, at least, for targets.

Projection: 7 targets, 5 receptions, 43 yards, 0.1 TD
PPR Ranking: TE # 16

Others: Kellen Winslow, Jake Ballard

TE DOWNGRADE

49ers Vernon Davis vs. Rams

The Rams have struggled on both sides of the ball this season, but one area they’ve been good is against the tight end. They’ve allowed only one score to an opposing tight end (Week 7 vs. Dallas). No TE unit has reached 52 receiving yards in a single game against them. Overall, opposing tight ends have 32 receptions and 306 yards on 54 targets against the Rams this season. The 49ers should be able to run the ball quite a bit this week, making Davis is huge fantasy liability.

Projection: 5 targets, 3 receptions, 36 yards, 0.3 TD
PPR Ranking: TE # 17

Others: Fred Davis, Greg Olsen

Follow PFF Fantasy Managing Editor Mike Clay on Twitter at @PFF_MikeClay