Fantasy: Week 12 Offensive Matchups

Welcome to the Week 12 edition of the Offensive Matchup Report.

Down below, you’ll find upgrades and downgrades at each of the primary fantasy football positions. After the player analysis, you’ll find that player’s ranking and projection for this weekend.

QB UPGRADE

Panthers Cam Newton vs. Colts

It might seem silly to recommend a quarterback facing a defense that has allowed exactly 14 pass completions each of the last two weeks, but the Colts have struggled on a per-pass basis. Despite only seeing a total of 43 pass attempts vs. Atlanta and Jacksonville, the Colts surrendered 393 yards and four touchdowns. They’ve allowed a passing score in every game this season, including 3+ on three occasions. Indy has managed only five interceptions on the year.

Projection: 21-of-33, 276 yards, 1.4 TD, 0.9 INT, 8 carries, 42 yards, 0.7 Rush TD
Ranking: QB # 2

Others: Matt Ryan, Colt McCoy

QB DOWNGRADE

Bills Ryan Fitzpatrick vs. Jets

As usual, the Jets are the easy defense to plug in here. They held Tim Tebow to 104 yards on nine completions in Week 11, which isn’t saying too much considering the Broncos’ offense. Still, they’ve held opposing quarterbacks under 300 yards in all but three of their games (Romo, Brady x2) and have surrendered just eight passing scores (two of which were thrown by Romo and four by Brady). Back in Week 9, Fitzpatrick managed only 191 yards and one score, while throwing two interceptions. He was 15-of-29. One bright spot for Fitzpatrick is that the Jets have only two sacks over their last four games.

Projection: 21-of-34, 220 yards, 1.2 TD, 1.4 INT
Ranking: QB # 23

RB UPGRADE

Colts Joseph Addai vs. Panthers

The Panthers are the ultimate anecdote for a struggling running game. Two weeks ago, Chris Johnson led the Titans’ backfield to 149 yards and a score. Last week, it was Kevin Smith exploding for three scores, as the Lions backs racked up 167 rushing yards and 69 receiving yards. The Carolina defense has allowed 100+ rushing yards to backs in nine of their ten games and has been burned for 11 rushing scores. They’ve also allowed 5+ receptions in eight of those games and five receiving scores by backs. Addai is returning from injury, making him risky, but the matchup is outstanding. Donald Brown is worth a look in the Flex.

Projection: 15 carries, 74 yards, 2 targets, 2 receptions, 12 yards, 0.5 Total TD
PPR Ranking: RB # 23

Others: Beanie Wells, Chris Johnson

RB DOWNGRADE

Vikings Toby Gerhart vs. Falcons

It might seem silly to consider Gerhart a downgrade with a ranking of 21, but it is when you figure that Adrian Peterson is likely out of action. Gerhart should easily see 15+ touches, which makes him a solid fantasy play. However, Atlanta is very good vs. the run, which will make production hard to come by. Since allowing 104 rushing yards to the Bears’ backs in Week 1 and 105 to the Eagles in Week 2, the Falcons have yet to allow a group of backs over 100 yards. Over the last three weeks, they’ve held opposing backs to 132 yards and no scores on 48 carries. They’ve allowed only four rushing scores to backs this season and none since Week 6.

Projection: 15 carries, 63 yards, 2 targets, 2 receptions, 14 yards, 0.7 Total TD
PPR Ranking: RB # 21

Others: Frank Gore, James Starks, Roy Helu

WR UPGRADE

Eagles DeSean Jackson vs. Patriots

The assumption here is that Jeremy Maclin will be out again this week, but, if he isn’t, he would also find himself on this list. In fact, if he is out, Riley Cooper should be considered a borderline WR3. The reason is the same as it’s been all season: The Patriots pass defense is poor. They’ve allowed wide receivers to rack up over 200 receiving yards six times this season and none have fallen below 144 yards. Wide receivers have scored on them 10 times in as many games in 2011.

Projection: 7 targets, 4 receptions, 78 yards, 0.3 TD
PPR Ranking: WR # 15

Others: Laurent Robinson, Deion Branch, Santonio Holmes

WR DOWNGRADE

Bengals AJ Green vs. Browns

The Browns continue to shut down opposing wide receivers this season. After keeping four units in a row under 100 yards, they had a “down” game in Week 11 when they allowed 11 catches and 115 yards on 23 targets to Jacksonville. This season, they’ve allowed 78 receptions, 1,004 yards, and 4 TDs on 161 targets to wide receivers. That 48% (161/78) catch rate is well below the 60% league average for wide receivers. Back in Week 1, Bengals wide receivers caught only six passes on 16 targets, but did manage 84 yards and a TD.

Projection: 7 targets, 4 receptions, 63 yards, 0.4 TD
PPR Ranking: WR # 19

Others: Andre Johnson, Steve Johnson

TE UPGRADE

Bucs Kellen Winslow vs. Titans

Kellen Winslow should be in for a strong weekend with Tennessee on tap. Since holding tight ends scoreless and to a total of 126 yards on nine receptions during Weeks 1-3, Tennessee has allowed 39 receptions, 506 yards, and five touchdowns on 60 targets to the position over their last seven games. Teams have targeted the tight end 7+ times on six occasions against Tennessee this season.

Projection: 8 targets, 5 receptions, 57 yards, 0.4 TD
PPR Ranking: TE #6

Others: Brandon Pettigrew, Brent Celek

TE DOWNGRADE

Patriots Aaron Hernandez vs. Eagles

This may seem surprising, but the Eagles have actually done a nice job against the tight end this season, especially recently. In Week 8, they held Jason Witten and the Cowboys’ tight ends to four receptions and 28 yards. Last week, red-hot Jake Ballard and the Giants’ tight ends managed only one reception and 13 yards on six targets. They’ve allowed four touchdowns to tight ends , but three of them came prior to Week 5, including two to Tony Gonzalez in Week 2. Tight end units have failed to eclipse four receptions and 28 yards against Philly since their bye week in Week 7. I should point out that Hernandez almost doesn’t belong here since he plays on the line only a third of the time, but Philly is still sure to keep an eye on him with their strong cast of corners.

Projection: 6 targets, 4 receptions, 40 yards, 0.4 TD
PPR Ranking: TE # 12

Others: Visanthe Shiancoe, Antonio Gates, Vernon Davis