Well folks, we've finally hit the fantasy playoffs, where decisions can make or break your season. We'll be looking at some of the matchups this week. No long intro here; let's get to the good stuff!
-If you're a Ray Rice owner, you have to be salivating at the chance to play the Colts. The Ravens probably won't toy around like the Patriots did, and Ray Rice is as effective a runner as almost anyone in the NFL. Assuming the Ravens build up a lead, he'll likely see plenty of touches as well. Ever since the inexplicable 5 carry Week 10 against Seattle, Rice has toted the ball over 20 times in his last 3 games, in addition to his usual handful of catches. Joe Flacco owners need to pin their hopes on a couple easy touchdowns against the subpar Indy cornerbacks, because once the game is out of hand, he's not going to throw much. On the other side, Dan Orlovsky probably won't have the same effectiveness he did last week. His totals were boosted by 4th quarter garbage time, and the Ravens pass defense is eons better than the Patriots pass D. I wouldn't go near him this week, not that many of you are.
–Steve Smith owners should be rejoicing this week. The Falcons pass D isn't any good, and they'll be without their top CB in Brent Grimes, who happens to be our top rated CB this year just ahead of Darrelle Revis. This game has the potential to be a shootout, and you can expect a fat rebound for Smith. Michael Turner has been ineffective in recent weeks, and although I didn't expect him to have such a solid season, this valley was totally predictable when given the tread on his tires. Carolina's run D will probably make him look better than he really is, and you can pencil him in as a low-end RB1 in standard formats. He's a near-lock for a score, as earlier this year, he ran for 139 yards and 2 touchdowns against the same team.
–T.J. Yates has already shown he can be a far more effective QB than Matt Leinart. Although that's not saying much, it's promising for scouring dynasty owners and people looking for low-end QB2s with the right matchups to end the year. With Andre Johnson out, I don't think I'd necessarily start anyone like Jacoby Jones or Kevin Walter. Neither of the guys plays with consistency even with Johnson out, but either can score a random TD on a given week because of pure snap volume. You'd have to be hard pressed to start Andy Dalton this week against a Houston defense that's done a complete 180 since Wade Phillips came into town, but with that said, A.J. Green is still completely startable.
-It looks like Kevin Smith and Christian Ponder may be out this game, making some players interesting plays. Maurice Morris instantly becomes flex-worthy in PPR leagues because although he's not a special talent, he'll get his share of touches and catches the ball well. Percy Harvin is a downgrade if Joe Webb starts at QB, and you can't even bother with a flyer like Devin Aromashodu, who saw a whopping 15 targets last week. I suspect Adrian Peterson will be a go, and if he does, he should have a huge game barring re-injury.
-Whoever Sean Smith covers is in for a huge day. I mentioned this in a prior column, but the difference between Smith and fellow CB Vontae Davis is night and day. Smith is our 2nd worst rated cover corner in the entire NFL, while Davis holds opposing QBs to a respectable 73.6 rating. Your guess is as good as mine who lines up on each player, but if things fall as they should, Jeremy Maclin should see Smith since he's the LWR the majority of the time. Barring some sort of reaggravation of his injury pregame, Maclin is a must start and could easily give you WR1 numbers this week. DeSean Jackson is a dicier play since he may be up against Davis and he's been a pure headcase this season. With that said, I don't mind Miami as a spot start defense for those desperate players out there – Michael Vick is sackable and he may be rusty, and the Miami D has been playing well the last few weeks.
-With Fred Davis suspended for the rest of the season, Santana Moss and Jabar Gaffney become startable in PPR formats in a game that may force Rex Grossman to air it out. Roy Helu is an obvious start in all formats as well. The Patriots players are as they always are – the typical studs are must-starts, while the rest is a “good luck figuring this out” on a week to week basis. I'd say expect plenty of BenJarvus Green-Ellis, but I expected plenty of him last week as well, but my buddy Belichick decided to tinker around and play Stevan Ridley extensively instead once the game was out of hand. Use at your own risk.
-For those of you thinking Beanie Wells may be a better-than-normal play because Patrick Willis is on the sidelines, think again. The San Fran D still hasn't given up a rush TD this year, and Larry Grant actually registered a +3.2 run rating including 4 stops after Willis went down last week. Beanie is a flex play this week at best, and his value is completely reliant on a TD plunge. Anything more than 70 total yards would surprise me.
-In a game that will like force the Raiders to go pass heavy, Chaz Schilens and Darrius Heyward-Bey are sneaky PPR options this week as Denarius Moore and Jacoby Ford are once again out. Michael Bush is still startable, and I like Carson Palmer as solid QB2 value just because he'll likely have the volume you want from your starting QB. Just beware that with this volume likely comes turnovers. The only Green Bay player I'll comment on is Brandon Saine – with James Starks out this week, he makes for a desperation deep league PPR play.
-Last but not least, Laurent Robinson is plummeting down my WR ranks this week. He's been hurt, Miles Austin is back, and Dez Bryant and Jason Witten are fully healthy. Feel free to ask on Twitter, but there's tons of guys I'm playing over Robinson this week.
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