The Super Bowl. Very few names actually encapsulate what they describe better than that. It's the biggest game of the biggest sport on the biggest stage in the world. But this year is a little different from years past. This year my excitement is mixed with anxiety about the pending doom that is a lockout. Let's hope that both sides can come to an agreement sooner rather than later and avoid what would certainly be a nightmare for fans and fantasy owners everywhere.
For now, however, all we can do is sit back and enjoy the last game of the season. And what a game it's shaping up to be. If you're still alive in your playoff leagues, you're probably scrambling for information right about now. You want to plug in the perfect lineup to either get an edge or maintain the one you already have. With just two teams, the choice between one player or another can literally make of break you. So this week, I wanted to take a look at a few choices you may be debating and give you my take on which player to start.
Ben Roethlisberger or Aaron Rodgers – In terms of experience, Roethlisberger holds a big edge in this one. With two Super Bowls under his belt, he clearly has an advantage over Rodgers. There’s also no doubt that Roethlisberger can play. In fact, if you exclude the first four games of the season when he did not play, he actually grades out higher (+42.5) than Rodgers did (+38.5) over the same span of 12 games.
But the problem with Roethlisberger is that fantasy owners can’t trust him. He has a way of playing big without posting big numbers. In this post-season, he’s led his team to two wins despite throwing just 2 TDs and an average of 179.5 yards per game. Conversely, Rodgers has put up huge numbers. He threw for 3 scores in his first two playoff games, and averages 263.3 passing yards per game. While he failed to throw for a TD against the Bears, he still managed to score on the ground. He racked up 39 yards on the ground in addition to his 244 yards through the air. His ability to put fantasy numbers on the board makes Rodgers the superior choice.
Verdict – Rodgers
Rashard Mendenhall or James Starks – Starks has certainly made a name for himself this post-season. He’s touched the ball a whopping 73 times in Green Bay’s three playoff games and has racked up 278 total yards and a score. In terms of rushing attempts, he averages 23.3 per game in the playoffs, which is actually nearly identical to Mendenhall’s 23.5 per game.
If those numbers tell us anything, it’s that we’re going to see a lot of both RBs on Sunday. So who is the better start? Well, their playoff numbers are fairly even. In addition to attempts per game, they’re similar in yards per carry: 3.8 for Starks and 3.6 for Mendenhall. To get a better sense of who to start, we need to look at their matchups. The Steelers grade out as the fifth highest rated defense against the run (+90.8), while the Packers sit 23rd with a PFF rating of just +10.2. Add this to the fact that Mendenhall has scored 3 times to just once for Starks this post-season, and I’m leaning Mendenhall.
Verdict – Mendenhall
Hines Ward or James Jones – Originally, I considered comparing Mike Wallace and Greg Jennings, but I think you obviously have to go with Jennings. This comparison, on the other hand, is a lot closer. Yes, Jones does have more yards than Ward in the post-season (94 to 39), and Jones has scored twice to just once for Ward. But in the regular season, these two put up almost identical numbers. Jones went for 692 yards and caught 5 scores, and Ward also caught 5 TDs and posted 755 receiving yards.
So they had very similar seasons statistically speaking, but PFF ratings tell another story entirely. Ward graded out at as the 30th ranked receiver overall at +3.6, while Jones posted a -5.3, which puts him 87th among WRs. I am cautious about Ward because the Packers rated as the 3rd best defense in coverage (+14.8) this season, however, I’m still going to lean towards the crafty veteran in this one.
Verdict – Ward
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Good luck to everyone still in contention, and I hope you all enjoy the game! Also, I would like to thank you all for reading. It's been a great season, and I had a lot of fun writing ‘Value Town' each week. Keep your eyes peeled in the off-season for new content not only from me, but from the rest of the PFF Fantasy crew.
Feel free to hit Jeff up on Twitter with any questions or comments. You can follow him at – @JeffRatcliffe
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