For most of us, our Fantasy Football season came to a close when the Saints finished off the Falcons on Monday night. For others, they’ll be playing in their league championship or the last week of their rotisserie league in Week 17.
With Fantasy Football in Week 17 comes one, giant question. This question is the reason most leagues end after Week 16. The question: ‘Will <Enter Player Name Here> rest for the playoffs this week?’
The easy answer is that we don’t really have any idea. The Packers, for example, have nothing to lose, but it sounds like they may play their starters for a few snaps. Throughout the week, the coaches will shed more light on this, but in the meantime, allow me to speculate:
NFC
Packers – As mentioned just a second ago, it sounds like the Packers’ starters will play a little bit on Sunday, but they’ve already clinched homefield advantage throughout the playoffs, so it’d be silly for them to see more than a drive or two. My guess is that we see about a dozen snaps from Aaron Rodgers, with Matt Flynn handling the rest. James Starks is far from 100% health, so I doubt he plays at all. Ryan Grant would see a few carries, but would turn the backfield over to Brandon Saine, who should flirt with 15 touches. John Kuhn would be involved, as well. Wide Receiver will be tricky because the Packers only carry five wide receivers and Greg Jennings is out. Jordy Nelson should get the most rest, but I imagine James Jones will be forced into quite a few snaps. Randall Cobb will benefit the most, as they’ll want to get him plenty of experience. He’s a decent Fantasy play. Donald Driver is tough to judge. He’s very old (in football years) and could use rest, but they seem to use him a lot in mop-up duty. My guess is he’d be right there with Jones in snaps. Jermichael Finley can rest, as the Packers are loaded with tight ends. Tom Crabtree and Ryan Taylor would do the blocking and DJ Williams could fill in on the pass routes. Williams is a risky play, but has a bunch of upside.
49ers / Saints – These two teams are tied for the No. 2 seed right now, but the 49ers own the tiebreaker. This is important because it means a first round bye. The Niners have a very winnable game at St. Louis, but I have to imagine the starters won’t get a break unless they build up a big lead (like any other week). The Saints, meanwhile, also play at 1 p.m. EST, which means they can’t wait-and-see. I doubt Sean Payton simply assumes the 49ers will win and gives up on the Bye, so I expect to see plenty of the first team at home vs. Carolina. Of course, the Saints can’t fall any further in the standings, so that’s something to keep in mind.
Giants / Cowboys – This is basically a playoff game for both teams. Winner is in, loser is out. Play all of your Fantasy stars from these two teams as you normally would.
Lions / Falcons – The Lions are currently 10-5, while the Falcons are 9-6. Both teams are locked into the playoffs as wild cards, but they’re battling for the 5-seed. The Falcons own the tiebreak here so the Lions need to win their 1 p.m. game on Sunday with the Falcons not playing until 4:15 at home vs. Tampa Bay. With the Packers resting so many players, the Lions have a good shot at a win, which clinches them the 5-seed. If they win, the Falcons are locked into the 6-seed and can rest everyone. If Detroit loses, Atlanta would likely go all out for the win. Although the five vs. six seed might not seem like much, it could mean traveling to Dallas or New York instead of San Francisco or New Orleans. The coaches know that. Detroit, I imagine, will be favored to beat Green Bay, so I’d sit my Falcons’ players if possible. Chris Redman, Jacquizz Rodgers, Kerry Meier, Harry Douglas, Eric Weems, and Michael Palmer will likely see quite a bit of work. Until Detroit officially loses, however, they are all risky plays. Rodgers has the most appeal, but Redman is a sneaky play, too, considering the matchup.
AFC
Patriots – The Patriots will be playing for the No. 1 seed and homefield advantage throughout the conference playoffs this weekend. They currently own a one game lead on both the Steelers and Ravens and can fall no further than the No. 2 seed, which still earns them a bye. Both Pittsburgh and Baltimore have winnable games, however, so it would be a surprise if New England – playing at home – didn’t do their best to knock off a Buffalo Bills team that they lost to earlier this season. At this point, my guess is that the starters will be a full go.
Ravens / Steelers – One of these teams will have a first round bye. The other will be a wild card and will play a road game in the wild card round of the playoffs. Obviously, there is good reason for both teams to go hard for a win on Sunday. Additionally, both teams play at 4:15, while New England takes on Buffalo at 1 pm. If the Patriots lose, one of these teams will be the No. 1 seed with a win. Baltimore has the leg up on Pittsburgh thanks to a season sweep, which means that they simply need to win to earn, at least, the two seed. The important item to note here is that both teams play at the same time. This means that they’ll be forced to go all out for the win. You can feel comfortable using all healthy, Fantasy-relevant players from these two teams.
UPDATE – The report today is that the Steelers will use Ben Roethlisberger for about 30 snaps (aka 1 half).
Texans – Houston is locked into the No. 3 seed, leaving them with no reason not to rest their starters, especially considering that they play the very next week. TJ Yates could play to get some additional experience, but he’s not a great play regardless. Andre Johnson is still hurt and unlikely to play. Kevin Walter and Jacoby Jones will see some work, but Bryant Johnson and especially Jeff Maehl will see an increased workload. None are worth your time. Arian Foster owners are biggest losers here. He is a guy you can’t rely on. Ben Tate and Derrick Ward will carry the load in what should be a run-heavy gameplan. Both have Flex appeal and maybe more. Stay tuned to the coachspeak. Owen Daniels would rest at the tight end position, and odds are that they’d like to give a busy Joel Dreessen a break, as well. That means more snaps for Garrett Graham and James Casey. Neither are worth starting.
Broncos / Raiders – These two teams are competing for the AFC West division crown. They both play at 4:15, as well, which means that they’ll need to go all out for the win. If Denver wins, they’re in. If they lose and Oakland wins, the Raiders are in. Oakland also has a slim shot at a wildcard. You can start all players you normally would with confidence.
Bengals – The 9-6 Bengals currently own the sixth and final playoff spot in the AFC. They can climb no higher than the six seed, but there are three other teams who could steal the wild card: Raiders (4:15), Jets (1:00), and Titans (1:00). Cincinnati hosts Baltimore at 4:15 on Sunday. The Jets and Titans could be eliminated by the time the Bengals suit up, but the Raiders still play at the same time and would knock the Bengals from the playoff if they win and Cincy falls to the Ravens. Moral of the story – There is no scenario where the Bengals have nothing to gain/lose, so they’ll be using all of their best players.
Jets / Titans – As mentioned, these teams need to go all out for a win and play during the early slate of games. You can start players from these teams as you normally would.
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