The National Football League is a team sport. It doesn’t really matter how hard us stat guys try, projecting statistics for football players will never be quite as easy as it is for Bill James and the Major League Baseball guys. That’s not to say it’s simple for the baseball guys, but a major league pitcher has control over a lot more than an NFL running back. Roy Halladay, for example, can control his walk rate, home run rate, fly ball rate, strike out rate, etc. Out of his control are fielding, batted balls that happen to fall in for hits, and his teammates ability to score runs. Football players, most specifically those playing offensive skill positions, control/dictate a lot less and generally can not succeed without a lot of help. Running backs need good run blocking and opportunities to run in ideal game situations, while quarterbacks need good pass blocking, a good gameplan, and receivers that can get open, catch the ball, and make a play with the ball once they catch it. A wide receiver might have a significant advantage over a corner back, but needs a quarterback that can get him the ball. Additionally, opportunity is really the main issue surrounding all three positions. Jamaal Charles can average 6.5 yards-per-carry all season long, but that doesn’t matter if he only carries the ball 8 times.
That all being said, there are still a handful of stats we can look at in search of trends that will help us going forward this season. The most obvious is touchdown rate. It’s a stat we can look at for players at every offensive skill position and it’s easy to see who is and isn’t lucky blessed in the scoring department. Of course, the trouble here is often that players on poor offensive teams will always have a low TD% across the board and vice versa. Additionally, different teams apply different game plans. Some teams will do their best to slam it home with their halfback when they reach the 5 yard line, while others will focus on play action passes to the tight end. These are all factors to consider when predicting second half regression.
Today, I’ll be scanning over the stats through 8 weeks in search of a few players I expect to see some regression from in the 2nd half – both good and bad.
Michael Turner – Falcons
TD/Carry – Actual: 2.3%, Expected: 4.0%
Despite 131 carries so far in 2010, Turner has scored only 3 rushing touchdowns, which works out to 2.3%. This comes despite a 5.6% mark in 2009, 4.5% mark in his 2008 breakout campaign, and a 4.2% career mark. Turner had scored only once this season prior to a 2-TD performance in week 7. The Falcons are middle-of-the-pack in offensive touchdowns and Turner will continue to be the feature back. Buy low if you can and expect that TD rate to rise as the season progresses.
The explosive Bills passing offense
Ryan Fitzpatrick: TD/Pass Attempt – Actual: 6.8%, Expected: 3.8%
Lee Evans: TD/Reception – Actual: 15.4%, Expected: 10.0%
Steve Johnson: TD/Reception – Actual: 20.0%, Expected: 10.0%
I took a look at Ryan Fitzpatrick’s inevitable decline last week and my analysis looks good after this past weekend. The Bills’ loss to the Chiefs Sunday saw his yardage, completion, TD, and interception rates regress big time. TD rate being the only exception, Fitzpatrick is now pretty close to where we should expect him to be going forward. His 11.4% Touchdown-per-completion mark, however, is still high and will continue to crash to earth over the next few weeks. Lee Evans and Steve Johnson will suffer the same consequence. Among NFL wide receivers with 40+ targets, Johnson ranks 4th in TD rate. Evans’ 15.4% mark is a bit more reasonable, but it’s rare to see one – let alone two – starting wide receivers scoring on such a high rate of their receptions.
Matt Forte – Bears
TD/Touch – Actual: 5.2%, Expected: 2.6%
The way I see it, Matt Forte is one of the most predictable running backs out there. He will average less than 4 yards-per-carry (he’s not a very good runner), won’t score a ton on the ground, will catch 80% of the balls thrown his way, and average close to 8 yards per reception, while scoring on a slightly above average number of those receptions. That all translates to a decent PPR fantasy back, but not to what he's done so far in 2010. His YPC sits at 3.9 and completion rate at 79%, while his 11.7 YPR is inflated by his 89 yard catch in week 1. Where we run into the real trouble is TD rate. He’s scored on 3.3% of his carries and 11.5% of his receptions. The rushing rate is a bit high, but fairly reasonable. The receiving rate is way too high and will regress to a figure closer to 3-4% going forward. Forte has scored 6 touchdowns already this season. Don’t expect more than 4-5 from here on out.
Felix Jones – Cowboys
TD/Touch – Actual: 0.0%, Expected: 3.4%
Jones currently leads the league in an unfortunate category: He has the most looks (94) among all players who have failed to score a touchdown. Currently 29th in the league in looks, the next closest NFL player that has failed to score a touchdown is Chris Ivory, who ranks 55th with 67 looks. Jones has a solid 4.2 YPC mark and has caught an impressive 92% of the 26 balls thrown his way. Still, Marion Barber has scored the only 2 rushing touchdowns for Dallas and Jones has not made it to the endzone with any of his receptions. It’s a good time to buy low on Jones.
Miles Austin / Roy Williams – Cowboys
Roy Williams: TD/Rec – Actual: 22.7%, Expected: 14.0%
Miles Austin: TD/Rec – Actual: 4.7%, Expected: 8.0%
Roy Williams is known for his high TD rate, but, at 22.7%, he’s too high for even his own standards. He put up an 18.4% mark last season, and has a 11.6% career mark (which is inflated heavily by the 16 scores he had from 2004-05 with Detroit). If the Cowboys were scoring at will like many expected, the 20% or so mark wouldn’t be quite as shocking, but Dallas has scored a mediocre 16 touchdowns on offense. Futhermore, Miles Austin has a TD rate of only 4.7% despite a 13.6% mark in 2009 and 14.1% career mark. Williams will retain a high TD% going forward because he’s 4th in line for targets in Dallas and many of them will come when he’s standing in the endzone. Austin’s YPR sits just under 15.0 and he’s caught an outstanding 65% of his targets. It’s a safe bet that his low TD rate is fluky and will fix itself—even with Romo out. Expect a few of Williams’ touchdowns to go Austin’s way from here on out.
David Garrard and Marcedes Lewis vs. Maurice Jones-Drew
Garrard: TD/Attempt – Actual: 8.7%, Expected: 4.3%
Lewis: TD/Reception – Actual: 28.0%, Expected: 14.0%
Jones-Drew: TD/carry – Actual: 0.6%, Expected: 3.0%
The Jaguars are one of the run-heaviest teams in football, so it should seem a bit odd that we’re seeing such high TD rates for Garrard/Lewis and such a low rate for Jones-Drew. The simple explanation is that the Jags are running the ball as often as possible, but, when it comes time to deliver a ball to the endzone, Lewis becomes the #1 option. Garrard’s 8.7% TD rate ranks 1st in the NFL among qualified quarterbacks. Considering that his career mark is 3.4% and he was below 3% each of the last two seasons, there is no way he will be able to retain that rate. To put an 8.7% TD rate in context, Tom Brady’s mark during his 50 touchdown 2007 campaign was, you guessed it, 8.7%. Lewis will continue to see plenty of Garrard’s targets in the redzone, but 28% is an absurdly high mark that is sure to drop considerably. My projection of 14% going forward still makes him one of the most TD-prone players in the game. As for Jones-Drew, his career TD/Rush mark is an impressive 5.8% and he put up a 4.8% mark in his first full season as the feature back in 2009. Although Jones-Drew has only scored once on the ground, he has scored twice via the receiving game, which has helped salvage some of his fantasy value in the first half of 2010. There should be no doubt in your mind that Jones-Drew’s touchdown number will rise in the 2nd half. Meanwhile, it’s a good time to sell on Garrard and Lewis.
Dwayne Bowe vs. Chiefs Running backs
Bowe: TD/Reception – Actual: 28.6%, Expected: 12.0%
Jamaal Charles: TD/Touch – Actual: 1.7%, Expected 3.0%
Thomas Jones: TD/Touch – Actual: 2.5%, Expected 3.0%
Similar to the situation in Jacksonville, the Chiefs running backs are doing all the dirty work, but it’s the pass catchers who are dancing in the endzone. The Chiefs currently rank as the run heaviest team in the entire league. Jamaal Charles and Thomas Jones have combined for 221 carries in 7 games, but have scored only 5 total touchdowns. Meanwhile, Dwayne Bowe has scored on almost 30% of his 21 receptions for a grand total of 6 on the season. The Chiefs will continue to target Bowe and rookie tight end Tony Moeaki in the redzone, but Bowe’s TD rate is certain to drop over the next few weeks. 6 touchdowns on 21 receptions for a team’s #1 wide receiver is a rate that just isn’t going to stand. Watch for the Chiefs running backs to reach the end zone more often. That might benefit Jones more than Charles in the short term, but watch for Charles to continue taking on a larger share of the workload—and, in turn, the scores—as the season progresses.
Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams – Dolphins
Brown: TD/Carry – Actual: 1.1%, Expected: 3.0%
Williams: TD/Carry – Actual: 1.3%, Expected: 2.5%
The Dolphins running back duo has been underwhelming, to say the least, this season. Both were excellent fantasy options when healthy in 2009, but neither is scoring enough to warrant much buzz in 2010. Brown has a decent 3.3% career TD/carry mark, was at 5.4% before his injury last season, and hasn’t been below 3.4% since 2006. Meanwhile, Ricky Williams career 2.9% mark is a bit deflated by his early years in New Orleans, but he did put up a 3.4% mark in 2008 and was at 4.6% in 2009. It should raise an eyebrow to see that not one, but both backs have seen a 3-4% drop this season. A part of the problem is that Dolphins offense isn’t scoring touchdowns. They currently rank 28th with 10. Still, it’s hard to envision either of them continuing on with TD rates this low. Expect them to combine for 5-7 scores on the ground from here on out.
Brandon Marshall – Dolphins
TD/Reception – Actual: 2.1%, Expected: 8.0%
Many of the points I made when discussing Brown and Williams carry over to this discussion, so I won’t spend too much time, except to point out Marshall’s absurdly low TD rate. The NFL average TD rate for wide receivers over the last decade is right around 8%, but most elite wideouts are above 10%. That has not been the case for Marshall, however, during his 4 year career, as he is more of a possession wide receiver than a downfield threat. His career mark is still a respectable 7.6%, especially considering he caught 100+ balls during 3 of those seasons. His career low mark is 5.8% back in 2008 with Denver, but he was up to 9.9% in 2009. Marshall will continue to be targeted heavily and his TD rate can only improve.
Aaron Hernandez
TD/Reception – Actual: 0.0%, Expected: 6.0%
Possibly Tom Brady’s #1 option in the passing game right now, it’s actually quite impressive that Hernandez (37 targets) has yet to find the endzone. Only Wes Welker has been targeted more often and 6 different Patriots have scored at least once. In fact, fellow rookie tight end Rob Gronkowski has been targeted only 13 times, but has scored 3 times. Hernandez is being used a lot like a wide receiver, but the Patriots aren’t looking to him as an option in the redzone. Still, he’s going to be relied on consistently throughout the rest of the 2010 season and that TD rate will slowly fix itself. Expect to see 2-3 scores from here on out.
Jeremy Maclin – Eagles
TD/Reception – Actual: 20.0%, Expected: 12.0%
The Eagles are a pass heavy team that will score plenty of touchdowns, but a #2 wide receiver seeing nearly 20% of the targets isn’t going to maintain a 20% TD rate. The sophomore wideout will see a drop in touchdowns going forward, but he should still be considered a top 25 fantasy wide out. Expect 4-5 scores the rest of the way.
Antonio Gates – Chargers
TD/Reception – Actual: 22.5%, Expected: 14.0%
Gates is the favorite target of Philip Rivers, one of the game’s finest quarterbacks, especially in the redzone. He is the #1 fantasy TE to own and that won’t change despite a drop in touchdowns in the 2nd half. Gates does have a healthy 12.3% career mark in the TD department and his career high is a ridiculous 16.0% (2004), but his highest mark since ’04 is 13.3% (2008). During the other 4 seasons since 2004, he's been in the 10-13% range. What this tells us is that he is one of the most consistently elite touchdown scorers in the game, but also that his 22.5% rate is going to regress very soon. If regular old regression isn’t enough for you, consider that Vincent Jackson will be back in week 12, as well. Although his touchdown numbers will drop, he’s still far enough ahead of everyone else that he remains the top-ranked fantasy TE.
Kellen Winslow II – Buccanneers
TD/Reception – Actual: 0.0%, Expected: 8.0%
Winslow has been relatively overlooked this season, mainly due to the emergence of pass-catching, and thus fantasy relevant, tight ends. The problem he’s facing is a complete lack of touchdowns. Despite being targeted on 20% of the Buccaneers targets this season (a pretty healthy number), he's failed to score a single touchdown. Winslow’s career mark sits at a porous 5.4% (hey, he's only played for the Browns and Bucs), but he’s been no lower than 6% each of the last 3 seasons. Not many tight ends see 7 targets/game like Winslow and he is bound to start scoring touchdowns as a product of all those looks. He should score 3-4 times the rest of the way, making him a good buy low.
Vince Young – Titans
TD/Pass Attempt – Actual: 7.4%, Expected: 4.7%
Minutes before I began writing this, it was announced that the Titans had acquired Randy Moss off of waivers. Considering I was just about to explain why Young has been over his head so far this season, the Moss acquisition might seem to offset my findings. Not so fast. Young’s career TD rate sits at 3.1% and his career high of 3.9% came in 2009. His current 7.4% mark puts him 2nd in the NFL behind only the aforementioned David Garrard and just slightly ahead of the also-aforementioned Ryan Fitzpatrick. He will regress and when you compare my projected 4.7% mark going forward to his career mark, I might even be a little bit generous. Moss opens up lanes for Chris Johnson, but Young is still only a mediocre QB2.
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