The IDP Breakdown is a weekly feature column that goes game by game and looks at all of the key matchups to help you identify big value plays, some not-so-obvious starts, and players to avoid. Analysis is based in part on Jeff Ratcliffe's weekly projections for the defensive linemen, linebackers, and defensive backs.
Tampa Bay @ Jacksonville
After finally getting on the field for a significant percentage of the defensive snaps back in Week 12, Da’Quan Bowers exploded last week against the Panthers for six solos and two sacks. Bowers played all of the Buccaneers 68 snaps, and looked darn good in the process. He’s a must start this week against a Jaguars team that gives up the third most fantasy points to opposing DLs, and have yielded almost two sacks per game to the position. Likewise, Adrian Clayborn owners will also want to get him in their lineups this week. Sean Jones had nine solos last week in a very nice matchup, but I wouldn’t expect the same this week. Jacksonville gives up the fourth least fantasy points to DBs, so you may want to look to other options.
Ashton Youboty followed his eight solo tackle and +3.4 debut effort at starting CB for the Jaguars with a two solo performance last week where he graded out at -3.3. One of these two performances is indicative of what we can expect from Youboty moving forward. I’m going to err towards the side of caution here, and look for other options this week. While it may not be a relevant fantasy play down the playoff stretch run, those in dynasty leagues may want to take notice that rookie Chris Prosinski rotated with Dwight Lowery at free safety last week. Prosinski was a preseason hopefully to get the strong safety spot before the Jaguars brought in Dawan Landry. If possible, Prosinski is a nice guy to stash on your taxi squad.
Houston @ Cincinnati
Though he didn’t record a sack last week, Connor Barwin still managed four QB interruptions and graded out at an impressive +4.2 on the day. This week, he faces a Bengals squad that had been stingy against opposing LBs, giving up just six sacks over the first ten games of the season to the position. However, they’ve since yield four sacks to LBs, including three to James Harrison. I like Barwin in the matchup, and would play him as an LB3 in big play leagues. Look to other options if your scoring system is balanced or tackle heavy. Expect Cincinnati to again try to pound the ball on the ground against this tough Texans run defense. Brian Cushing missed practice this week, but it was due to a rib issue and not the knee injury that sidelined him briefly last weekend. Keep an eye on this one, but Cushing is almost certain to give it a go. He makes a solid LB2 if he does play.
There were rumors floating around that Rey Maualuga suffered an ankle injury last week, and that was the reason for him playing just slightly over half of the Bengals defense snaps. I haven’t been able to verify or disprove this information as of now, but what I can say is that he did not appear on the Cincinnati injury list. Regardless of the cause, this very curious series of events raises red flags for fantasy owners. Despite this great matchup, I would be hesitant to rely on Maualuga as anything more than an LB3/Flex play. At the same time, Thomas Howard, who got the nickel snaps last week, makes a very interesting play against the Texans. His tackle numbers have been up and down this season, but he should have plenty of opportunities with a steady does of Arian Foster and Ben Tate.
Minnesota @ Detroit
A defensive lineman has sacked Matthew Stafford at least once in each of the Lions last eight games. This week, he faces one of the best in the game, Jared Allen. Expect another nice fantast day from Allen, who currently sits with 14.5 sacks on the season. Brian Robison also gets a matchup boost this week if he makes it on the field. Robison sustained a concussion last weekend, and has not practiced this week. Keep a close eye on this one. If Robison cannot play, Everson Griffen will likely get the start, and has some potential upside in deeper big play leagues.
As was expected, Amari Spievey had a very nice day last weekend against the Saints, racking up nine solos in the process. With Louis Delmas potentially sidelined for the rest of the season, we can expect to continue to see production out of Spievey. While the Vikings haven’t been the best matchup for DBs this season, Christian Ponder’s continued progress and Percy Harvin’s recent explosion bode well for the matchup. If Spievey is not available in your league, you may want to take a look at Chris Harris. Yes, the Bears cut him earlier this season, but Harris stepped in for the Lions and recorded seven solos last week. While I’m reluctant to jump completely on the wagon here, Harris has potential to give you some added depth for the playoffs. In a strange series of events, Ndamukong Suh crashed into a tree last Saturday in his hometown of Portland, Oregon. While this has nothing to do with fantasy, it is something to monitor in the coming days as the talented DT serves the second of his two game suspension.
New England @ Washington
Between Weeks 6 and 11, Andre Carter racked up nine sacks for fantasy owners. Unfortunately, he’s put up a goose egg over the last two weeks. Look for that to change this weekend against the Redskins, who have given up the eleventh most sacks this season. Carter doesn’t give you consistency in tackle heavy leagues, but his upside makes him a low-end DL1 play in all formats this week. While Carter struggled last week, Vince Wilfork put together a huge game with seven solos and a sack. While Wilfork looks tempting, this may have been more of an anomalous performance than a sign of things to come. He’s only worth playing in DT required leagues. Another interesting Patriots performance last Sunday was that of the recently acquired formed Dolphin, Nathan Jones, who got the start as the slot CB and played all but four of New England’s defensive snaps. While he wasn’t spectacular, he was targeted 10 times and made seven solo tackles on the day. With Devin McCourty still banged up, Jones is definitely a name to remember.
Despite battling late-season injuries, London Fletcher has been on an absolute tear over the last two thirds of the season. After his 11 solo tackle performance last week, he now sits behind only D’Qwell Jackson and Navorro Bowman with 84 solos. Surprisingly enough, the old man has crept his way back into the LB1 conversation, and can be started as a low-end LB1 in all formats this week and moving forward. Fletcher’s partner in crime, Perry Riley, also has nice value in this one. Riley cooled off last week with just three solos after he had racked up 25 in the previous three games. Despite this dip, Riley is still worth an LB2 start, especially in tackle heavy leagues. LaRon Landry was held out of last week’s game, and there is some talk that the Redskins are considering putting him on IR. Reed Doughty got the start last week, despite some suggesting that it would be DeJon Gomes. The inconsistent Doughty looked good, especially against the run, and will likely get another start this weekend. Both he and O.J. Atogwe make good plays against a Patriots offense that has been very fantasy friendly to opposing DBs this season.
Kansas City @ New York Jets
After grading out at a combined -10.0 over the first eight games of the season, Justin Houston has exploded over the Chiefs last four. During that stretch, he’s moved into an every down role and has responded with a +9.9 grade. Houston has been particularly effective in the pass rush, which was on display last weekend against the Bears when he went off for three sacks to go along with four solos. Houston is now a must add in big play leagues, and makes a nice LB3 option in those formats this week. While Jon McGraw has been solid for fantasy owners this season when he’s been healthy, I would look to other options this week if you can. The Jets give up the second least points to opposing DBs, and that puts a damper on McGraw’s value.
The Jets are one of my least favorite teams from an IDP standpoint. They are such a solid defense, yet have so few players worth starting in fantasy leagues. Eric Smith has been one of the more reliable Jets this season. If you’ve been using Smith as your DB2/DB3, make sure your monitor his status this weekend. He was a limited participant in practice this week with a knee issue. A deeper player worth a look in big play leagues is Aaron Maybin. As surprising as it is, Maybin has excelled in his pass-rushing role with New York. While he saw limited snaps earlier in the season, his time on the field has grown over the last two games so that he saw a season-high 39 snaps last week. He has six sacks on the season, but three of them have come in the last two weeks. His value is limited in tackle heavy and balanced leagues, but the upside he offers in big play leagues makes him an ultra sneaky LB3/Flex play against the Chiefs this week.
Atlanta @ Carolina
I was a big believer in William Moore this preseason. Unfortunately, I was way off in my analysis, and Moore has now been passed by James Sanders on the Falcons depth chart. The former Patriot has played well since taking over as the starter back in Week 10, culminating in his 10 solo breakout game last week against the Texans. It’s likely that Sanders is hanging around in your free agency pool, so go out and grab him before someone else does. He makes a nice DB2 option moving forward, and should have another nice day against a Carolina team that gives up the eighth most fantasy points to opposing DBs.
The Falcons have also been a favorable matchup for opposing DBs this season, and currently yield the seventh most fantasy points per game to the position. Charles Godfrey has quietly racked up 63 solos this season, and has emerged as a DB1 option for the fantasy playoffs. Look for a very nice day from Godfrey this weekend. Start him with confidence in all formats. Another Panther IDP in store for a big day is James Anderson. The Panthers have notably been very poor against the run this season, so expect a healthy dose of Michael Turner and company. That should give Anderson ample opportunity to make plays. Consider him a high-end LB2 option this weekend.
Philadelphia @ Miami
Despite playing an every down role for the entire season, it was announced this week that Jamar Chaney will be replaced by Casey Matthews in the nickel packages moving forward. This comes as a bit of a surprise to some, especially considering Chaney’s 12 solo tackle performance against the Seahawks last Thursday night. A closer look, however, reveals that Chaney has played poorly this season. His overall grading of -12.4 this season ranks him as the second worst inside linebacker behind only Barrett Ruud. This move saps much of Chaney’s fantasy value, as he has not been a consistent tackler this season. I would be extremely reluctant to stake my playoff life on any Eagle linebacker this weekend.
The Eagles have been an excellent matchup for opposing DBs this season. That’s great news if you’re a Yeremiah Bell owner. While the stud DB has been dealing with a turf toe, he was a full participant in practice this week and will be on the field on Sunday. He makes a rock solid DB1 play in all formats. For the first time this season, I ranked Kevin Burnett over Karlos Dansby. While both are good LB2 options this week, I give the slight edged to Burnett due to the big play ability he flashed last week when he recorded a sack and an impressive pick-six to go along with five solos and a pass defensed. The Eagles have also been a good matchup for LBs this season, so get both Dolphins ILBs in your lineup this week.
New Orleans @ Tennessee
Jonathan Vilma returned from injury last week and had his most productive fantasy day of the season in the process with nine solos. With the playoffs looming, Sean Payton was in no rush to get Vilma back on the field. So the fact that Vilma played last week is a very good sign that he’s completely healthy. Moving forward, you can plug Vilma back into your lineups as an every format LB2. The Titans have been one of the best pass blocking teams in the league this season, so don’t expect a big day from Will Smith. However, a resurgent Tennessee run game could open things up for the Titans on offense, giving Roman Harper plenty of opportunity to fill up the stats sheet. I have him as one of my top DB options this week.
Colin McCarthy stepped in to replace injured Barrett Ruud a month ago, and in the process has passed him on the depth chart. Last week, McCarthy put up nine solos, a forced fumble, and a pass defensed against a Bills team that had given up the sixth least fantasy points to opposing LBs. We could be looking at a potential matchup-proof LB in McCarthy, but let’s not get too far ahead of ourselves. For now, he’s a must start LB2 who has shown the potential to put up LB1 numbers. Jason McCourty left the game last week with a concussion. He has not practiced this week, and very likely won’t play. This opens the door for Alterraun Verner to get the start. Verner put up big fantasy numbers last season, and should have no problem picking up where McCourty left off. He makes a solid DB2 play. If you have been relying on Jordan Babineaux in the latter part of this fantasy season, you may want to look elsewhere, as it looks like he’s now in a split with Chris Hope. I would not be the least bit surprised to see Hope get the majority of snaps at SS for the Titans this weekend.
Indianapolis @ Baltimore
Pat Angerer left the game after the first play last week, giving fantasy owners a goose egg in the process. He’s been dealing with knee issues all season, and while this appeared to be bad, Angerer was in practice this week. This is a touchy situation, and the safe play is to avoid Angerer altogether this weekend. The same advice goes for the rest of the Colts LBs. At the same time, you can bank on another nice day from Antoine Bethea, who now has 74 solos on the season. I also like both Colts DEs in this one, as the Ravens have given up the seventh most fantasy points per game to opposing DLs this season.
The Colts have consistently been one of the worst matchups for IDPs all season long, and that’s not going to change this weekend. I’m sitting almost every Raven with the exceptions of Terrell Suggs and Haloti Ngata. Last week, Vince Wilfork racked up seven solos in the middle for the Patriots, so look for similar numbers from Ngata. And Suggs is just too darn good to ever sit. Ray Lewis is still dealing with turf toe and will again be inactive this weekend. The Ravens are targeting a Week 15 return, but I would be making backup plans if I’m a Lewis owner.
Chicago @ Denver
With just seven solos in the last three games, Brian Urlacher hasn’t been his usual productive self for fantasy owners. Look for that to change this weekend against a Denver team who obviously likes to run the ball. Two weeks ago, the Broncos yielded a whopping 30 solo tackles to Chargers LBs. Both Urlacher and Lance Briggs make solid fantasy plays this weekend. I’m not as crazy about Charles Tillman, but believe he gets involved enough in run support to salvage a decent fantasy day. If you have Julius Peppers, you’re starting him, but you have to hope for a decent amount of tackles as Tim Tebow has not been sacked often by opposing DLs this season.
With Von Miller out last week, Mario Haggan went nuts, recording eight solos, three tackles for a loss, a pass defensed, a pick, and a defensive TD. This is not good news for Miller owners who expect the stud rookie to come right back into an every down role. Haggan’s big day may have earned him an increased role as Miller continues to recover from thumb surgery. I would be reluctant to rely on Miller this weekend, as we could see him in only on passing down. That said, Miller does have some value in big play leagues, as Caleb Hanie was sacked seven times last week. This also will benefit Elvis Dumervil, who has been on an absolute tear with nine sacks over the last five games. He’s now an every week DL1 option.
San Francisco @ Arizona
The worst-case scenario happened last week for Patrick Willis owners ready to make their playoff runs. The super star LB injured his hamstring last week, and will almost certainly miss this week’s game against the Cardinals. While we can only speculate how long this will sideline Willis, with the 49ers locked into a playoff spot, we likely won’t see him again until he’s fully healthy. This means an obvious bump in value for Navorro Bowman, who already was a borderline LB1. This also means that we will see Larry Grant in an every down role. While Grant is not Willis, he’s still a capable player who is a must add in all leagues, especially if you’re a Willis owner. I’d prefer other options this week, but if you have to start Grant, hopefully he’s nothing more than an LB3.
Despite their winning ways this season, the 49ers have not been a very good fantasy matchup for opposing IDPs this season. That doesn’t mean that you sit Daryl Washington or Calais Campbell, but it does mean there’s little upside to be found from some of the deeper Cardinals IDPs. Paris Lenon has been on a nice little run of fantasy production over the last month and a half, but I would look to other options this week, especially if you need to swing for the fences with your LB3. The same can be said if you’re considering playing Adrian Wilson. San Francisco yields the third least fantasy points to opposing DBs, and just don’t work the pass game enough to give Wilson or any Cardinal DB upside in this one.
Buffalo @ San Diego
George Wilson will return to the lineup this weekend just in time for the fantasy playoffs. He couldn’t have picked a better matchup to do so, as he faces a Chargers team that gives up the sixth most fantasy points to opposing DBs. I don’t expect Wilson to skip a beat despite missing the past three games, and have him as a DB1 option this week. Jarius Byrd was also a little banged up this week with a shin issue, but he was a full participant in practice and figures to have no problem getting on the field this Sunday. Look for the Charger to pick on the Bills secondary in this one. First Terrence McGee and now Aaron Williams have been lost to injury for Buffalo, leaving just Leodis McKelvin and Drayton Florence at CB. Neither are worth playing in fantasy leagues, but there presence could help out Wilson’s and Byrd’s value.
Donald Butler again stands to see some increased playing time with the injury to Na’il Diggs. Butler played 55 of the Chargers 68 defensive snaps with Diggs out last week, and figures to see similar work this week. Butler was a high-end LB3 all season in just a two-down role, so expanded playing time will give his fantasy value a boost up into the LB2 range. Takeo Spikes could also be someone to look at as a potential low-end LB2 in tackle heavy leagues, as he’s had eight solos in each of the last two games. I would try to avoid Shaun Phillips in this one. Since returning from injury, Phillips hasn’t quite looked himself. That coupled with this tough matchup against a very stout Bills offensive line makes for a potential bad fantasy day. There are likely better options for you elsewhere.
Oakland @ Green Bay
Despite his much-publicized off-field issues, Rolando McClain did play last weekend for the Raiders. In 59 snaps he managed just two solos, but did record a sack that boosted his fantasy numbers. It looks likely that the league will take no action until the offseason, so you can still rely on McClain for fantasy purposes. I wouldn’t want to do so this weekend, however, as the Packers currently yield the least fantasy points per game to opposing LBs. You read that correctly. Despite being a high-powered offense, the Packers lack of a consistent run game really limits the fantasy scoring potential of opposing LBs. If possible, I’m avoiding every Raider not named Tyvon Branch in this one.
It’s looking likely that Desmond Bishop will again miss this weekend’s game for the Packers. If you are a Bishop owner, hopefully you were able to grab D.J. Smith. The rookie LB played well last week against the Giants, recording six solos in the process. Smith is a decent LB2 play this week. Another Packers LB to take a look at is Rob Francois, who actually saw 64 of the Packers 67 defensive snaps last week. While he didn’t match Smith’s production, Francois could be an interesting player to slide into your lineup in deeper leagues if you’re in need. Charles Woodson sustained a concussion last weekend, but has been cleared to play this weekend. Start him as you usually would.
New York Giants @ Dallas
Justin Tuck showed signs of life last week for the Giants. He recorded his first sack since Week 8, and added two solos. More importantly, with Osi Umenyiora sidelined, Tuck played 74 of the Giants 81 defensive snaps. Look for this trend to continue this weekend in this always-entertaining divisional contest. Tuck is creeping his way back into fantasy relevance and makes a solid DL2 play this week. His counterpart, Jason Pierre-Paul, has been the most consistent Giants DL this season. Last week, Pierre-Paul graded out at an astounding +11.6 for his effort against the Packers. Only 16 4-3 DEs have graded out higher than that for the entire season. Needless to say, Pierre-Paul is an every week DL1.
While he hasn’t matched his early season production, Sean Lee has given fantasy owners solid LB2 numbers since he’s been forced to play with a cast over his dislocated wrist. He gave fantasy owners seven solos last week, and also managed to pressure Kevin Kolb three times. The Giants have not been the best matchup for LBs this season, but I still expect Lee to put up decent numbers in this one. Aside from Lee and DeMarcus Ware, the only other two Cowboys worth considering are Jay Ratliff and Terence Newman. But I would only play these two in DT and CB required leagues.
St. Louis @ Seattle
The last time these two teams faced back in Week 11, James Laurinaitis racked up 11 solos. With Marshawn Lynch running red hot, expect a similar performance from Laurinaitis this weekend. He makes an every format LB1 play. Darian Stewart also had a nice game in the last meeting between these two teams. While he missed last week’s contest against the 49ers, Stewart was not on the injury report this week and looks like he’ll be back in the mix. If he does have a setback, Craig Dahl will get the start. Dahl showed us last week that he can produce, as he tallied 10 solos against San Francisco. Keep a close eye on this situation if you’re a Stewart owner, and have Dahl ready if Stewart for some reason does not play. Chris Long was held out of practice this week, but there is no need for concern. This is more preventative than anything, and he should be started with confidence as a DL1 in all formats.
Perhaps the biggest performance in the previous meeting between these two teams came from Chris Clemons. Clemons has been an up and down fantasy producer this season, but no up was as high as his three sack, three solo game in Week 11. The Rams have given up the most sacks this season, so look for another big day from Clemons on Monday night. He is a high-end DL1 option. David Hawthorne was held out of practice this week, but like Long, this appears to be preventative. That said, the Rams have been a poor matchup for opposing LBs over the last month. At best, Hawthorne is a low-end LB2 option, but keep an eye on his status as we move into the weekend.
Thanks for reading, and best of luck in the playoffs! If you have any questions, comments, or just want to talk football, feel free to hit me up on Twitter – @JeffRatcliffe.
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