Fantasy: Running Back Carry Projection Breakdown

An unintended consequence of my work this off-season has been a focus on opportunity for running backs and its fantasy impact. We all (think we) know who the most talented backs in the NFL are and look to draft those players at the top of fantasy drafts. The fact is, though, wide receiver is a much scarcer fantasy position to fill and that’s where you should be using your top draft picks. You can still do very well at running back after the second round if you know who has – or doesn’t have – a favorable situation in terms of carries. The chart below can be a big help in finding that value.

I’ve used Mike Clay’s offensive depth charts as a reference point to determine the carry percentages below, which divides up carries amongst a team’s running backs and NOT the team as a whole. Some teams feature wide receiver reverses, the wildcat formation and designed quarterback runs as a significant percentage of its runs, and those will not be included in this examination – we want to see how a team is going to divide its carries among its running backs.

Furthermore, I’ve divided the teams into two categories: Feature Back and Running Back by Committee (RBBC). A team labeled “Featured Back” is one in which the lead back is projected to see 70% of the teams’ carries while an “RBBC” team divides up carries more evenly between two or three backs. There are teams that employ a goal line back or third down back to complement a featured back, but I'm of the belief that touchdowns can be fluky and that players that touch the ball enough will get theirs.

Finally, I’ve made a note next to running backs that are projected to see 10% or more of a team’s targets, which is extremely valuable in PPR leagues. Just because a running back sees 30% of a teams’ carries doesn’t mean you should write him off if he’s going to get 3-4 targets a game.

Teams are listed in alphabetical order under each category.

According to these projections Steven Jackson (St. Louis) and Chris Johnson (Tennessee) should see the greatest percentage of their teams' carries, which would raise their value quite a bit if they weren't already first round picks.

The only surprises in the Featured Back column, for me at least, are Ryan Grant and Knowshon Moreno. Personally, I'm not all that confident that Grant will walk into training camp this summer and automatically have his starting job back, although he was very productive in that role in his two and a half years with the Packers. Grant was a second round draft pick a year ago, however, and if he returns to form post-injury he's a steal at his current average draft position. Moreno is in a different situation as word out of Denver has the front office viewing him as more of a complement than as a featured back, and are looking to add a free agent to their running back rotation. If that back is DeAngelo Williams, as has been projected, Moreno's fantasy prospects fall dramatically. On the other hand, if Jason Snelling comes to Denver I think that Moreno will still see the carries to be a back-end RB2 in a 12-team league.

The number of backs in committees is not a new phenomenon, but the fact that you could play 36 of those backs (my count) tells you just how deep the running back position is, especially in PPR formats. We also learn that Marshawn Lynch is probably being drafted too late if he's going to get 66.6% of Seattle's carries, featured back or not. Ditto on Cedric Benson, who is a featured back and is still being drafted outside of the first five rounds of DraftMaster drafts.

I'd be concerned drafting backs from New England, Arizona and New Orleans. Each of those teams have more than two talented backs who will be competing for touches for head coaches and coordinators that are creative and specialized at times, which could lead to frustration for fantasy owners.

I'm also drafting LeSean McCoy ahead of Jamaal Charles after reviewing this chart – he'll have little competition for carries and will be a major factor in the pass and screen game, making him a lock for 18+ touches a game while Charles may not lead his team in carries some weeks.

Of course, it's important to remember that this table is based on projections and it is bound to change as free agency begins, training camps open and pre-season games are played. Taking it a step further, if you see a projection that doesn't fly with you, take ownership and change it for your own preparation. Enjoy!