Fantasy: Rob Gronkowski

Know of a young TE that’s significantly undervalued, is not drafted as a top 5 dynasty TE, and deserves to be? I do. No… I’m not talking about Jimmy Graham, people. Though, his numbers were pretty nasty down the stretch in 2010. I’m talking about the third member of the NFL Gronkowski brothers —Rob.

I’ve looked past him all season and until now. I never bothered to look more closely at his statistics with Aaron Hernandez and Wes Welker already in the mix in New England. I figured he’s your average TE that people are overvaluing based on a few solid games. That looks like a terrible oversight on my part. I even laughed at some people drafting him in dynasty startups at TE6. After looking at the numbers more closely, it looks like Gronkowski should be ranked among fantasy’s top TEs. What did I look at to get to that conclusion? Some good stuff:

1 – Gronkowski’s 2010 statistics in comparison to the 2010 top 10 fantasy TEs, in addition to Jermichael Finley, Dallas Clark, and Jimmy Graham who are all widely viewed as top fantasy TEs

2 – Gronkowski’s week 9 through week 17 statistics, as those were weeks where he consistently played 70% or more of the team snaps

Here’s what I found:

Comparison to 2010 Top Fantasy TEs
(Assumes 1 point per reception, 6 points per TD, 1 pt for every 10 yards receiving)

Player	FP	FP/Snap	FP/Opp	Opp/Snap	Target/Drop	Age
Jason Witten*^	247.20	0.23	0.45	0.51	41	28.9
Vernon Davis*^	189.40	0.20	0.39	0.51	15	27.2
Antonio Gates*^	188.20	0.34	0.54	0.63	21	30.8
Marcedes Lewis^	186.00	0.20	0.53	0.38	17	26.9
Chris Cooley	176.90	0.17	0.30	0.57	15	28.8
Tony Gonzalez	171.60	0.16	0.30	0.55	18	35.1
Kellen Winslow	168.30	0.23	0.35	0.65	29	27.7
Brandon Pettigrew	167.20	0.17	0.33	0.52	9	26.1
Ben Watson	162.40	0.17	0.35	0.50	14	30.3
Zach J. Miller*^	157.70	0.16	0.37	0.43	18	25.3
Rob Gronkowski	155.60	0.20	0.54	0.36	19	21.9
Jimmy Graham*^	95.90	0.40	0.57	0.70	14	24.4
Dallas Clark*^	89.70	0.21	0.40	0.52	17	31.8
Jermichael Finley*^	57.10	0.27	0.46	0.59	N/A	24.0

* – Currently selected ahead of Gronkowski in dynasty startup drafts
^ – Currently selected ahead of Gronkowski in Draftmaster Drafts (Owen Daniels also selected before him)

Note the following on Gronkowski based on the above:

1- Ranked 11th in fantasy points among TEs overall
2- Ranked 7th (tied) in FP/snap
3- Ranked 2nd in FP/opportunity (total number of passing/rushing plays involved)
4- Ranked 14th of the above in opportunity/snap
5- Ranked 5th best in the number of targets before a drop
6- Youngest of the 14 TEs listed

In analyzing the above, don’t forget that Gronkowski was a rookie tight end in 2010. Rookie TEs normally struggle mightily in transitioning to the NFL game. They continue to develop beginning in year two, but year one traditionally is a disaster for rookie TEs. Granted, there were a number of rookies (i.e., Aaron Hernandez and Jimmy Graham) who played well for a period of time, but no one was as consistent and productive as Gronkowski. Despite the traditional rookie struggles, he finished an impressive 11th overall in fantasy points among TEs and put up stellar FP/opportunity numbers, finishing 2nd overall among TEs. That FP/opportunity stat is a big deal. To rank 2nd overall among TEs is phenomenal, especially as a rookie. Yeah, I know. Some of you are thinking to yourself, “Great. He puts up points when given the opportunity, but what if he doesn’t get any?” If you’re thinking that, stress no more. Let’s take a look at his last 9 weeks of 2010.

Gronkowski’s Final 9 weeks of the 2010 Season

Here’s the breakdown week by week of his production from week 9 through 17:

Week	Targets	Receptions	Yards	TD	Drops	FP
9	8	4	47	0	0	8.7
10	5	5	72	3	0	30.2
11	1	1	25	0	0	3.5
12	5	5	65	0	0	11.5
13	1	1	12	0	0	2.2
14	6	5	43	1	0	15.3
15	2	1	25	0	0	3.5
16	7	4	54	2	1	21.4
17	10	6	102	1	1	22.2
Total 9 games	45	32	445	7	2	118.5
Total extrapolated	80	57	791	12	4	211.0

FP/Snap	0.22
FP/Opp	0.59
Opp/Snap	0.38

In summary:

1- This production extrapolated over a full 16-game season would rank Gronkowski 2nd overall with 211 FPs among 2010 TEs behind only Jason Witten.

2- His TDs look high at 12 TDs and many will say they can’t be extrapolated. Okay, fine. Take away the 5 additional TDs and he still finishes as the 5th ranked TE.

3- His FP/Opp would rank him 1st among TEs

4- Have I not convinced you yet?

Looking at the FP/snap and the FP/opp in the first table above, I was definitely still skeptical on how often the Patriots use Gronkowski as a blocker since the two ratios differ so much. However, after looking at the second set of stats, it’s clear that he still gets his opportunities despite his frequent run blocking involvement.

The first set of data definitely puts a positive spin on Gronkowski, suggests a positive future ahead and leads you to believe that he’s among the top TEs in the game. Data from the final 9 weeks just solidifies it. If he’s not value at an average draft position of TE#8 in dynasty league startups and TE#10 in redraft leagues, I don’t know who is. This is a slam-dunk.

Bottom line? Wait on a TE in dynasty drafts and grab Gronkowski in the 6th round or later in dynasty leagues and the 8th round or later in redraft leagues. You’ll get a top 5 TE at a 2–3 round discount. Better yet, based on the above, you may be getting a perennial top 3 TE.

Fantasy: Rob Gronkowski - Elite TE?