Fantasy: Reaction - Willis McGahee to Denver

Willis McGahee, an eight-year NFL veteran running back, signed a three-year contract to play for the Denver Broncos reportedly worth $7.5 million, with $3 million in guaranteed money. McGahee played his college ball at the University of Miami and despite suffering what was originally thought to be a career-threatening knee injury in the 2003 National Championship Game was drafted 23rd overall by the Buffalo Bills in April 2003.

After sitting out his rookie season, McGahee broke into the league as the Bills starting running back in 2004 and ran for 1,128 yards and 12 touchdowns, averaging exactly 4.0 YPC. McGahee played two more seasons with the Bills (2,237 yards, 11 touchdowns) before going to Baltimore in free agency. After a successful debut season with the Ravens (1,207 rushing yards, seven touchdowns, 43 receptions, 231 yards, one touchdown), McGahee was ailed by a variety of injuries in 2008, derailing his attempt at a fourth 1,000-yard rushing season. In 2009 Ray Rice replaced McGahee as the featured running back in Baltimore, but the veteran still managed 924 yards and 17 touchdowns in his final two years with the Ravens. In his eight-year career, McGahee has totaled 6,167 rushing yards, 55 touchdowns on 1,541 attempts, good for exactly 4.0 YPC.

Fantasy Spin:

It has been reported this off-season that the Denver Broncos front office viewed Knowshon Moreno as more of a third-down back and would look to add a bigger back to carry the load on first and second downs. If the McGahee signing is indeed that move, then that is especially good for Moreno, whom I believe will hold RB2 value for the 2011 season, especially in PPR formats. McGahee hasn’t carried a full load as an NFL back in three seasons and certainly cannot be counted on to carry the ball 200 times in a season. Therefore, I expect that Moreno and McGahee split the carries 55-40, with the other backs in the Broncos’ stable chipping in for the other five percent while Moreno is on the field for almost all passing downs. McGahee is likely be the go-to-guy inside the five-yard line. If Tim Tebow is the Broncos’ starting quarterback, both McGahee and Moreno will be severely limited in their potential to score touchdowns as Tebow will certainly take some goal line opportunities. McGahee should be drafted in almost all formats as he’s in line for a significant amount of carries, but probably shouldn’t be relied upon as more than a bye-week replacement or low-end flex play.

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